PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 20 - 24 2006 THE 500-HPA ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS... ECMWF... AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...DEPICTING A PATTERN THAT FEATURES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS... WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO FORECAST OVER MUCH OF CANADA AND A DEEP TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED OVER ALASKA. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS THE BEST CONTINUITY AND IS SLIGHTLY PREFERRED IN TODAYS BLEND. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF EXHIBIT SIMILAR PATTERNS... ALTHOUGH WITH VARYING DEGREES OF TROUGHINESS ALONG THE EAST COAST. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE GREATEST ALONG THE EAST COAST... AS THE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS BASED ON THE GFS... ECWMF... AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL INDICATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD THROUGHOUT THIS REGION. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO HAVE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONLY ANTICIPATED IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A RATHER DRY PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS FROM THE MIDWEST WESTWARD AND WETTER THAN NORMAL ALONG THE GULF COAST AND UP THE EAST COAST. CONTINUITY OVER ALASKA CONTINUES TO BE GOOD... WITH THE FORECAST OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... ANALOG... AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES... CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CDC BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... AND CDC BIAS-CORRECTED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 22 - 28 2006: DURING WEEK 2 THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER THE CONUS... ALTHOUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE. AGREEMENT IS GOOD BETWEEN TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. TODAYS SOLUTIONS FEATURE A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AND TROUGHS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THIS FEATURE FROM YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS... HAVE ELEVATED THE PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK TROUGH AND AN AREA OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES JUST OFF THE EAST COAST IS A CONSISTENT FEATURE... ALTHOUGH THERE IS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF SPREAD INDICATED IN THE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS RELATED TO THE DEPTH AND POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE. THE MODERATE AMPLITUDE RIDGE FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE MIDWEST... NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.. AND THE SOUTHWEST. FLORIDA HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD... WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... UNCALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CDC BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CDC BIAS-CORRECTED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. FORECASTER: M. HALPERT NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 20. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR MAY WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19550416 - 19980326 - 19990408 - 19650407 - 19980401 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19550417 - 19980402 - 19990408 - 19650407 - 19980326 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 20 - 24, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 22 - 28, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N B NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$