PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU APR 13 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 19 - 23 2006 CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AGAIN TODAY AS THE GFS 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS CONTINUE TO HAVE POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL RUN HAVE THE BEST CONTINUITY AND ARE GIVEN THE GREATEST WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. THERE PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC... BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS... AND ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION WITH WEAK TROUGHS OFF THE WEST AND EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE VARIOUS GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE MUCH MORE VARIABILITY AND INCONSISTENCY... WITH THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANGE... FLIPPING BACK TOWARD THE SOLUTION FROM THE EARLIER PART OF THE WEEK. THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS SOLUTION EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHWEST... WHERE TODAYS SOLUTION HAS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE YESTERDAY HAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE ONE FEATURE THAT ALMOST ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE IS A POSITIVE HEIGHT CENTER NEAR 75W 60N. TELECONNECTIONS FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND THAT SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THE BLENDED HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS HAS VERY SMALL HEIGHT ANOMALIES... WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE EAST COAST. THIS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MUCH OF THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS ALSO A RATHER DRY PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST ONLY IN FLORIDA AND IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONTINUITY OVER ALASKA IS MUCH BETTER WITH A CONTINUED FORECAST OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... ANALOG... AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES... AND CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE CDC BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURES WERE AGAIN NOT USED TODAY BECAUSE ITS FORECAST HEIGHT PATTERN CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE HEIGHT PATTERN FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 21 - 27 2006: DURING WEEK 2 THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER THE CONUS... ALTHOUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE. AGREEMENT IS GOOD BETWEEN TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z ENSEMBLE MEANS... ALTHOUGH AGREEMENT WITH YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS IS NOT AS GOOD. TODAYS RUNS RETROGRADE THE LARGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER FROM 60N/75W IN THE D+8 PERIOD TO 60N/100W IN THE D+11 PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS ALSO HAVE A FAIRLY LOW LATITUDE TROUGH CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA... WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD FAVOR SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST... BUT AM NOT READY TO BUY OFF ON THIS YET. THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES JUST OFF THE EAST COAST IS A CONSISTENT FEATURE. THE BLENDED SOLUTION HAS FAIRLY MODEST HEIGHT ANOMALIES... WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN RATHER SMALL TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FLORIDA AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER ALASKA RETURN TOWARD NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD... BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND UNCALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FORECASTER: M. HALPERT NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 20. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR MAY WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19980402 - 19550417 - 19650407 - 19520408 - 19990408 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19980402 - 19550417 - 19650407 - 19990408 - 19980411 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 19 - 23, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N B NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 21 - 27, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N B VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N B NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$