PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED APR 12 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 18 - 22 2006 TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND 12Z ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY BUT HAVE MAJOR CHANGES FROM YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS... LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE CHANGES INCLUDE A RETROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST POSITIVE ANOMALY HEIGHT CENTERS ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OCCUR IN THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... WITH A RETROGRESSION AND WEAKENING OF THE FORECAST RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO FALL OVER THE EAST COAST... AS THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALSO RETROGRADES AND EXPANDS WESTWARD. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WEAKEN THE RIDGE SO MUCH THAT HEIGHTS FALL TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THE CANADIAN SOLUTIONS FROM BOTH YESTERDAY AND TODAY ARE VERY SIMILAR... WITH WEAK TROUGHS OFF THE WEST AND EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. THESE CHANGES RESULT IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS... WITH NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NOW EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS... WITH WETTER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS CONFINED TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FLORIDA. CONTINUITY OVER ALASKA IS MUCH BETTER WITH A CONTINUED FORECAST OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS RESULTING IN COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM YESTERDAYS RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... ANALOG... AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES... AND CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE CDC BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURES WERE NOT USED TODAY BECAUSE ITS HEIGHT PATTERN CLOSELY RESEMBLES YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 20 - 26 2006: DURING WEEK 2 THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... ALTHOUGH WITH A MUCH REDUCED AMPLITUDE. AGREEMENT IS VERY GOOD AMONG TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z MODEL RUNS... BUT REPRESENTS A MAJOR SHIFT FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS FEATURES A VERY WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC... A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ALASKA SOUTHWARD TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC... A WEAK RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS... AND A TROUGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS THE 0Z AND 6F RUNS... AS THE CHANGE IN THE SOLUTION OCCURRED BETWEEN THE 18Z AND 0Z MODEL RUNS. THIS PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY SPARSE ACROSS THE COUNTRY... WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ONLY FORECAST FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON. THE FORECAST TROUGH OVER ALASKA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE... RESULTING IN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN CONTINUITY. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND UNCALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FORECASTER: M. HALPERT NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 20. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR MAY WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19980402 - 19550418 - 19650407 - 19980411 - 19990408 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19550418 - 19980402 - 19650406 - 19980411 - 19990408 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 18 - 22, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN N B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 20 - 26, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$