PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 17 - 21 2006 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL SOLUTIONS FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC... A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND THOSE SOLUTIONS FROM THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN RUNS, IS PRIMARILY RELATED TO THE PREDICTED AMPLITUDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE GFS SOLUTIONS (WHICH ARE JUDGED TO BE THE BETTER FORECASTS TODAY) FAVOR A FLATTER, MORE DEAMPLIFIED TROUGH, WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS PREFER A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH. MOST OF TODAY'S HEIGHT GUIDANCE PREDICTS TWO NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION FEATURE...THE FIRST NEAR THE NORTHERN OR NORTHWESTERN COAST OF ALASKA, AND THE SECOND JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE CANADIAN CENTER MODEL DIFFERS IN THAT THE SOUTHERN NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE A MUCH SMALLER DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL, AND ALSO LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, IN ADDITION TO FORECASTING A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THAT IS RATHER INSIGNIFICANT COMPARED WITH THE OTHER MODEL RUNS. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS ALSO THE ONLY ONE WHICH PREDICTS A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FAVORS COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORECAST TROUGH OVER ALASKA FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF-BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS AND DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE DOWNSCALING TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES... CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CDC BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 19 - 25 2006: DURING WEEK 2 THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FEATURES A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 500-HPA NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE ALEUTIANS, AND NOTICEABLE RETROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WHICH WAS FORECAST NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE CONSENSUS ALSO FEATURES A RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, THE SOUTHERN END OF WHICH TRAILS BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND ALSO A MEAN TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE OVERDONE THE INTENSITIES OF THE PACIFIC SECTOR CIRCULATION FEATURES NOTED ABOVE, AND IS THE ONLY SOLUTION THAT PREDICTS A STRONG TROUGH LOCATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A DIMUNITION OF BOTH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS WELL AS GENERALLY DRIER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MOST OF ALASKA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL UNDERNEATH THE STRONG 500-HPA TROUGH, THOUGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE BERING SEA COAST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE EXPECTED RETROGRESSION OF LONG WAVES OVER THE PACIFIC. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND UNCALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: A. ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 20. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR MAY WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19980402 - 19550418 - 19980410 - 19650406 - 19990322 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19980403 - 19860414 - 19650406 - 19550418 - 19980410 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 17 - 21, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 19 - 25, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$