PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON APR 10 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 16 - 20 2006 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL SOLUTIONS FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC... A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OCCURS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC... WHERE THE GFS MEANS HAVE A MORE CONSOLIDATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST NEGATIVE CENTER JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS MUCH DIFFERENT ALONG THE WEST COAST... WITH ONLY SMALL NEGATIVE ANOMALIES FORECAST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND POSITIVE ANOMALIES COVERING MOST OF THE CONUS. THE OTHER DIFFERENCE AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CONCERNS THE DEPTH OF THE WESTERN TROUGH... WITH THE ECMWF THE DEEPEST AND THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THE SHALLOWEST. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS HAVE WEAKER TROUGHS AND SO HAVE WEIGHTED THE BLEND MORE TOWARD THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... LOW AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE ECMWF AND A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FAVORS COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORECAST TROUGH OVER ALASKA FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF-BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS AND DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE DOWNSCALING TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES... CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CDC BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 18 - 24 2006: DURING WEEK 2 THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SIMILAR... BUT DEAMPLIFIED PATTERN TO THAT FORECAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC CENTERED NEAR THE DATE LINE... A TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AND WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS JUDGED MODERATE... WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD RELATED TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE MAJOR FEATURES... NOT TO THE POSITIONING. MOST OF ALASKA SHOULD BE COLDER THAN NORMAL UNDERNEATH THE STRONG 500-HPA TROUGH.. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MEDIAN OR DRIER THAN NORMAL OVER THE ENTIRE STATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND A MODERATE AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND UNCALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: M. HALPERT NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 20. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR MAY WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19980403 - 19860414 - 19790417 - 19860409 - 19990322 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19980403 - 19860414 - 19860409 - 19790417 - 19650331 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 16 - 20, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 18 - 24, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$