PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI APR 07 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 13 - 17 2006 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. THE MAIN FEATURES AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF BASED SOLUTIONS ARE A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO BE LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... MODERATE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.... AND A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH OVER ALASKA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL FORECASTS AND WAS LARGELY DISCOUNTED TODAY. THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FAVORS COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND OVER THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST... ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES... UPPER MIDWEST... AND OHIO VALLEY. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS STORM TRACK... THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD EXPERIENCE WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH THE MEAN 500-HPA RIDGE. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORECAST TROUGH OVER ALASKA FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE STATE. THE ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AS STORM SYSTEMS PROGRESS THROUGH THESE AREAS AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF-BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFSET BY LACK OF AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES... AND CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 15 - 21 2006: DURING WEEK 2 THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING MODERATELY STRONG 500-HPA TROUGHS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA AND A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION... THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD FROM ITS FORECAST LOCATION DURING THE 6 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME POTENTIALLY EXTENDING THE ZONE OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FURTHER TO THE EAST... WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE EXPECTED THERE. WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AS THE MEAN NORTHERN STREAM 500-HPA JET IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED MAINLY OVER CANADA. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS NEW ENGLAND WHERE A FORECAST WEAK TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL MAKE THIS REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS. MOST OF ALASKA SHOULD BE COLDER THAN NORMAL UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY STRONG 500-HPA TROUGH WITH ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR THE PANHANDLE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSES AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO HIGH SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND VERY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 20. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR MAY WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19630323 - 19630410 - 19790420 - 19950322 - 19910318 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19910318 - 19630323 - 19950321 - 19630410 - 19550418 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 13 - 17, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N N NEVADA B A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH N N ARIZONA B A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 15 - 21, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N N NEVADA B N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN A B RHODE IS N B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$