PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU APR 06 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 12 - 16 2006 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. A HIGH AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND ECMWF-BASED SOLUTIONS TO BE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FAVORING COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THE MEAN 500-HPA JET IS FORECAST TO EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS STEERED INTO THE AREA ALONG THIS JET. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM... A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. ALASKA IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH A MODERATELY STRONG 500-HPA TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE AS STORM SYSTEMS ARE GUIDED INTO THE AREA AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. NORTHERN ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MEAN STORM TRACK AND SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 45 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF-BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFSET BY LACK OF AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES... AND CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 14 - 20 2006: DURING WEEK 2 THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING MODERATELY STRONG 500-HPA TROUGHS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA AND A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FAVORS EXTENDING THIS REGION OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM... WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AS THE MEAN NORTHERN STREAM 500-HPA JET IS EXEPCTED TO BE LOCATED MAINLY OVER CANADA. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS NEW ENGLAND WHERE A WEAK TROUGH IS PROGGED BY MOST OF TODAYS GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS. MOST OF ALASKA SHOULD BE COLDER THAN NORMAL UNDERNEATH A FAILY STRONG 500-HPA TROUGH WITH ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR THE PANHANDLE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSES AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE... AND CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 20. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR MAY WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19630323 - 19950321 - 19910318 - 19550418 - 19630410 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19910318 - 19550418 - 19630323 - 19950321 - 19980403 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 12 - 16, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 14 - 20, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N B NEVADA B N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH N N ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS A N CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$