PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI MAR 5 2004 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - MAR 15 2004 . . . . . . . THE MAIN HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE FIRST FIVE DAYS... WITH EVEN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON MANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. BY DAY 5 THE OPERTIONAL MODELS FORECAST A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. WITHIN THIS LARGE SCALE FLOW SEVERAL FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST...ONE IN THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH... A SECOND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND A THIRD ON OR APPROACHING THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOMEWHAT MORE SPREAD IN THE DEPICTION OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES THAN AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SIMILAR BY DAY 5...WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE SHORT WAVE IN THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH THAN THE GFS RUNS. FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD THE 500-HPA MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD... ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT...AGREEMENT TODAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH AND EXACT POSITION OF THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE EAST COAST...BUT A BIT LESS DISAGREEMENT THAN THERE WAS YESTERDAY. AGAIN TODAY THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST MORE SPLIT FLOW OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THAN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...DUE TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ESPECIALLY THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF FORECASTING MORE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THAN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IN THIS REGARD. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL WEEK...BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND A MEAN TROUGH CENTERED WEST ALASKA ARE FORECAST BY ALL MODELS...BUT THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURE FROM BEING BELOW NORMAL OVER AT LEAST SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER SLIGHT PHASE ERRORS IN THE MODELS CAN LEAD TO LARGE FORECAST ERRORS FOR A REGION AS SMALL (ON A GLOBAL SCALE) AS ALASKA. CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS MEAN SOLUTIONS IS REASONABLE FOR ALL THE MODELS. THE DAILY GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...BUT THE SPREAD BY DAY 10 IS LARGER THAN USUAL FOR BOTH ENSEMBLES. EXAMINATION OF DAILY 0Z AND 6Z GFS RUNS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THAT THE MEAN 500-HPA FIELD COMES FROM A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF MODERATELY LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SOME SOLUTIONS WHILE A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE LOWER AMPLITUDE FEATURES. THIS MEANS THAT THE AVERAGE SURFACE CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL COME FROM A WIDER VARIETY OF MORE UNCERTAIN DAILY WEATHER THAN IS SOMETIMES THE CASE...WHICH INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MEAN OUTLOOK. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS THE NAO INDEX TO STAY NEAR ZERO AND THE PNA INDEX TO GO FROM STRONGLY NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE BY DAY 7 AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR ZERO BY DAY 10. MODEL OF THE DAY: EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN DUE TO SUPERIOR ANOMALY CORRELATION SCORES DURING THE LAST 60 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF 5 DAY MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...30 PERCENT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF THE 6Z GFS 5 DAY MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS CONSIDERED TO BE AVERAGE TODAY...3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5...DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET BY THE VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND...COMPOSITE ANALOGS FROM THE BLEND... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOKED SOMEWHAT MORE REASONABLE TODAY THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST...CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BIAS CORRECTED AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS...AND ANALOGS AND NEURAL NETS FROM THE BLEND. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 13 - MAR 19 2004 AGAIN TODAY THE LATEST GFS RUNS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST A CONTINUATION OF THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME...MOVING A MEAN TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS CHANGE WAS HINTED AT BY YESTERDAYS D+11 GSF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ESPECIALLY BY YESTERDAYS 18Z GFS D+11 MEAN. THIS WOULD BE A RETURN TO A DEAMPLIFIED VERSION OF THE RECENTLY OBSERVED PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS FORECAST BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA RATHER THAN THE RECENTLY OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE MODELS FORECAST THE PATTERN OVER ALASKA PROGRESSING EASTWARD ENOUGH FROM THAT OF THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD BE A MARKED CHANGE FROM THE RECENTLY OBSERVED MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT MANY ALASKAN LOCATIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 60 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF EACH OF THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS 7 DAY MEANS CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 1O. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...2 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND...ANALOGS FROM THE BLEND...AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES. THE 8 TO 14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST...CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...CALIBRATED AND BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS...AND ANALOGS AND NEURAL NETS FROM THE BLEND. FORECASTER: R. MARTIN . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE... PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE 1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISTICAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON THURSDAY... MARCH 18TH. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19850223 - 19970227 - 19730313 - 19700320 - 19510214 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19850223 - 19730313 - 19700319 - 19550220 - 19730310 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A UTAH N N ARIZONA N B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$