PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST WED MAR 3 2004 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 9 - MAR 13 2004 . . . . . . . AGAIN TODAY THE MAIN HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE 500-HPA PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE FIRST FOUR DAYS...BUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON THE PHASING AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES DEVELOP AS EARLY AS DAY 3. HOWEVER...BY DAY 5 THE PATTERNS IN THE MODELS CONSOLIDATE SOMEWHAT AND OVERALL AGREEMENT IS NO WORSE THAN USUAL. BY DAY 5 THE MODELS FORECAST A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN... ALTHOUGH A FEW ARE LESS PROGRESSIVE AND HAVE THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RATHER THAN OVER THE APPALACHIANS AS MOST MEMBERS DO. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TEND TO SUPPORT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE...AND BOTH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE THEIR TROUGH AXES FARTHER EAST THAN EVEN THE 0Z GFS. BY THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD THERE IS A MODEL FIGHT TODAY AS THE DIFFERENCES AT DAY 5 CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THE FOUR MOST RECENT GFS RUNS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST PATTERNS REASONABLY SIMILAR TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAVE THEIR MEAN TROUGH AXES WELL OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. WHILE THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS HAVE THEIR TROUGH AXES IN THE VICINITY OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. IN ADDITION THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS...HAVE MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA...AND LEADING TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THAT THE GFS-BASED HEIGHT FORECASTS ONLY HINT AT. INTERESTINGLY AT FIRST GLANCE THE HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERNS DO NOT APPEAR AS DIFFERENT AS THE FULL 500-HPA FIELDS EXCEPT FOR SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND A MEAN TROUGH CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE STATE ARE FORECAST FOR ALASKA BY ALL MODELS...BUT THE TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURE FROM BEING BELOW NORMAL OVER AT LEAST SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER SLIGHT PHASE ERRORS IN THE MODELS CAN LEAD TO LARGE FORECAST ERRORS FOR A REGION AS SMALL (ON A GLOBAL SCALE) AS ALASKA. CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS MEAN SOLUTIONS IS GOOD FOR THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS BUT LESS SO...ALTHOUGH NOT UNREASONABLY SO...FOR THE ECMWF-BASED MEANS. THE DAILY GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT THAN USUAL BY DAY 8. THE SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS HIGHER THAN USUAL...WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS ABOUT NORMAL. EXAMINATION OF DAILY 0Z AND 6Z GFS RUNS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THAT THE MEAN 500-HPA FIELD COMES FROM A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF MODERATELY LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SOME SOLUTIONS WHILE A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE LOWER AMPLITUDE FEATURES. THIS MEANS THAT THE AVERAGE SURFACE CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL COME FROM A WIDER VARIETY OF MORE UNCERTAIN DAILY WEATHER THAN IS SOMETIMES THE CASE...WHICH INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MEAN OUTLOOK. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS THE NAO INDEX TO STAY NEAR ZERO AND THE PNA INDEX TO GO FROM NEGATIVE TO NEAR ZERO. MODEL OF THE DAY: EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN DUE TO SUPERIOR ANOMALY CORRELATION SCORES DURING THE LAST 60 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF 5 DAY MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...30 PERCENT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS CONSIDERED BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...2 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5...DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND AND COMPOSITE ANALOGS FROM THE BLEND. AGAIN TODAY THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES DID NOT LOOK CONSISTENT WITH THE BLEND HEIGHT FIELD IN A NUMBER OF PLACES AND WAS THUS DISCOUNTED. THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST...CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BIAS CORRECTED AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS...AND ANALOGS AND NEURAL NETS FROM THE BLEND. AGREEMENT AMONG THESE TOOLS WAS BETTER THAN USUAL. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - MAR 17 2004 AGAIN TODAY THE LATEST GFS RUNS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST A RETURN TO SPLIT FLOW. MEAN RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA AND WEAK MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH TROUGHING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS-BASED D+11 SOLUTIONS ARE GOING TOWARD THE D+8 ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE PATTERN FROM THE VARIOUS RUNS...BUT ALL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA ANOMALIES OVER ALMOST ALL THE LOWER 48 STATES... AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER ALASKA...ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST THAT THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL IN TEMPERATURE. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 60 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 AND 40 PERCENT OF THE 5 DAY MEAN ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...2 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND AND ANALOGS FROM THE BLEND. AGAIN TODAY THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES DID NOT LOOK CONSISTENT WITH THE BLEND HEIGHT FIELD AND APPEARED TO BE TOO COLD IN MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND WAS THUS DISCOUNTED. THE 8 TO 14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST...CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...CALIBRATED AND BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS...AND ANALOGS AND NEURAL NETS FROM THE BLEND. AGAIN TODAY THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS WERE BADLY SPLIT OVER HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN THE CENTER OF THE NATION. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN APPEARS TO SUPPORT LESS PRECIPITATION THAN EVEN BIAS CORRECTED AND CALIBRATED MODEL OUTPUTS SUGGEST. THE WETTER TOOLS WERE DISCOUNTED TODAY. FORECASTER: R. MARTIN . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE... PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE 1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISTICAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON THURSDAY... MARCH 18TH. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19790318 - 19550219 - 19510220 - 19900312 - 19870317 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19790317 - 19870317 - 19580310 - 19870225 - 19960226 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N A MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N B VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE A A MASS A N CONN N N RHODE IS A N PENN A B NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$