PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST MON FEB 23 2004 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 29 - MAR 4 2004 . . . . . . . DURING THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD... THE GFS... EUROPEAN... AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL FORECAST A TROUGH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES EXTENDING BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THE EASTERN CONUS IS DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE EXTREMES IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS REGION. HOWEVER... THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF WEAK RIDGING... ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST... FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A MERIDIONAL FLOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL US TO USHER IN COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION. THIS MERIDIONAL COMPONENT IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT COULD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERITY OF ANY COLD AIR OUTBREAKS. THE GRADIENT IN HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. IS RELATIVELY LARGE WHICH FAVORS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION FOR THIS REGION. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE OF CONFLUENCE OF THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM AND A NORTHERLY JET IN THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH MAY EXTEND INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS CONFLUENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND IS ABSENT IN THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS INDICATE A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IN BOTH THE 0Z GFS AND ECMWF LENDING MORE SUPPORT TO THE IDEA OF A MORE ACTIVE THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. HOWEVER... THIS SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IS ABSENT FROM THE 6Z GFS WHICH FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS RECENTLY CONTRIBUTED TO LOWER AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS REGION. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE EXTENT OF THIS SNOW COVER HAS DECREASED BUT IT IS STILL WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO BE A CONSIDERATION IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS REGION. 500-HPA ANOMALY CORRELATIONS FOR THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER THAN BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE U.S. AND CANADA DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS. IN ADDITION... ANOMALY CORRELATIONS FOR THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN THEIR RESPECTIVE HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS. FOR THESE REASONS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS CHOSEN AS THE MODEL OF THE DAY. MODEL OF THE DAY: EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7... 25 PERCENT OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS CONSIDERED NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND AND COMPOSITE ANALOGS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD. IT IS ALSO BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE 500 HPA FLOW PATTERN. CONSIDERATION WAS ALSO GIVEN TO SNOW COVER WHERE RELEVANT. THE D+8 CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS OUR HIGHEST SCORING FORECAST TOOL... WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND PERCENTAGES FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... ANALOGS TO THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... AS WELL AS SUBJECTIVE CONSIDERATIONS TO THE FORECAST 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN. THE CDC D+8 CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION TOOL WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 2 - MAR 8 2004 DURING THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD... THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN STILL SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM HANGING BACK IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHERN STREAM ENTERING THE CONUS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THE STREAMS CONVERGE IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS A TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT BUT A MORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW. THIS CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP IN PARTS OF THE EAST...NAMELY IN THE OHIO...TENNESSEE...AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THE ZONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW PATTERN IN THE EAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURE EXTREMES TO A MINIMUM. THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL PUT PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. AT RISK FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION 0Z AND 6Z GFS RUNS ARE REMARKABLY INCONSISTENT WITH ONE ANOTHER... WITH THE 0Z GFS BRINGING A STRONG TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST WHILE THE 6Z GFS PLACES A TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. DURING THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD THE HIGH RESOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL RUNS LOSE THEIR ADVANTAGE AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS GENERALLY PREFERRED. THIS IS BORNE OUT BY THE HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATIONS OF THE GFS MEAN RELATIVE TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION 0Z AND 6Z GFS RUNS. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 100 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5... DUE TO LARGE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE GFS HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS AND THE FACT THAT THE CDC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS WERE UNAVAILABLE TODAY. THE 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND AND COMPOSITE ANALOGS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD. IT IS ALSO BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE 500 HPA FLOW PATTERN. CONSIDERATION WAS ALSO GIVEN TO SNOW COVER WHERE RELEVANT. THE D+11 CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS OUR HIGHEST SCORING FORECAST TOOL... WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. THE 8 TO 14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND PROBABILITY PERCENTAGES FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... ANALOGS TO THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... AS WELL AS SUBJECTIVE CONSIDERATIONS TO THE FORECAST 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN. THE CDC D+8 CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION TOOL WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE... PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE 1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISTICAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON THURSDAY... MARCH 18TH. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19930228 - 19970203 - 19770209 - 19710216 - 19730215 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19980212 - 19930301 - 19970202 - 19600202 - 19910204 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N N IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N N NEVADA N B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$