PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2004 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 23 - 27 2004 . . . . . . . INSPECTION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELDS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS SHOWS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN SECTOR AND ADJACENT OCEAN AREAS DURING DAYS 6 TO 10...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO PHASE. THERE ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY. THE BIG PICTURE PRE- DICTED BY MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF - YESTERDAYS ECMWF ENSEMBLE (SINCE TODAYS IS UNAVAILABLE) - THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE - GFS ENSEMBLE - 0Z AND 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS - AND YESTERDAYS 18Z GFS - INDICATE A PRONOUNCED NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO)...IN WHICH ABNORMALLY HIGH HEIGHTS DOMINATE THE HIGHER LATITUDES AND ABNORMALLY LOW HEIGHTS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE MAJOR ANOMALY CENTERS FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST INCLUDE A POSITIVE CENTER JUST EAST OR NORTHEAST OF HAWAII...A BROAD ZONE OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS RUNNING ACROSS SIBERIA AND THE BERING SEA - THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE STATE OF ALASKA - THE EASTERN PACIFIC - THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES - AND CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE ATLANTIC TO EUROPE. A VERY STRONG BLOCK IS PREDIC- TED NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLAND AND ICELAND...WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN NEAR THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON BAY. MODELS OF THE DAY: GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 10 PERCENT OF BOTH THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8... 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAYS 18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 7... 10 PERCENT OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUN CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAYS ECMWF ENSEMBLE CENTERED ON DAY 7... AND 25 PERCENT OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY ... 3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND ...AND ON THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERA- TURE FORECAST. THE CDC TOOL FAVORED ANOMALOUS WARMTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...THOUGH IT SEEMS COUNTER-INTUITIVE IF WE ARE ALSO FORECASTING A SOUTHERN STORM TRACK AND ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM. IN THE END...IT WAS DECIDED TO GO WITH VERY MODEST PROBABILITIES FOR WARMTH ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH THE MORE CONFIDENT AREAS HIGHLIGHTED FARTHER NORTH. FOR THE AREA EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...COLD AIR DAMMING IS LIKELY TO KEEP MEAN TEMPERATURES AT MORE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOGS TO THE OFFI- CIAL HEIGHT PROG - THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... AND ON A SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST (12Z) GFS PRECIPI- TATION FORECASTS. IT IS ALSO BASED ON THE CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPI- TATION TOOL. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 25 - MAR 2 2004 DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD...A CONSENSUS OF MODEL RUNS INDICATES THAT INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE FROM THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON COAST...THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. IF THE 12Z GFS IS CORRECT ON DEEPENING THE TROUGH NEAR OR ALONG THE WEST COAST IN THIS PERIOD...THEN SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS LIKELY TO WRAP AROUND NORTHEASTWARD... BRINGING ITS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BASIN AND UP TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NEARBY BLACK HILLS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 30 PERCENT OF YESTER- DAYS 18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10... AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS 5-DAY MEAN CANADIAN ENSEMBLE CENTERED ON DAY 8. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY ... 3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND ... THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ...THE CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION... AND ON A SUBJECTIVE INTER- PRETATION OF THE DAILY GFS (12Z RUN) PRECIPITATION MAPS AND IM- PLIED STORM TRACKS. FORECASTER: A. ARTUSA . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE... PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE 1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISTICAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED THURSDAY FEB 19TH. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19700220 - 19700215 - 19800224 - 19580223 - 19860201 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19700220 - 19800224 - 19700214 - 19700217 - 19860201 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A N NEVADA N A W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A A UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N N MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A N NEVADA N A W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$