PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2004 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 26 - 30 2004 . . . . . . . THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5 ON THE LONG WAVES... BUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES ARE ALREADY GROWING RAPIDLY IN THE SHAPE... PHASE AND INTENSITY OF SHORT WAVES DIGGING INTO A LARGE MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THERE ARE ALSO RELATED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS PREDICTED TO RETROGRADE... WITH THE ECMWF DOING IT THE FASTEST. HOWEVER... THE MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER IN ABOUT THE SAME PLACE... NEAR 44N/150W... FOR THE 6-10 DAY MEANS. THEY ARE STILL PREDICTING BASICALLY A SPLIT-FLOW CIRCULATION OVER THE CONUS... ALTHOUGH THE TREND IS FOR MORE PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH TIME. THERE IS ALSO SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW THE ENERGY FROM SYSTEMS COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC IS PARTITIONED BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS. NEVERTHELESS... THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE SERIOUS DISCREPANCIES AND THE GENERALLY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT APPEARS TO CARRY OVER INTO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS FORECASTS THE PATTERN NOT TO CHANGE MUCH FROM THAT FORECAST AT DAY 5. THE FLOW REMAINS SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED BY THE POLAR VORTEX WHICH IS NOW GETTING SQUEEZED TOWARDS THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON BAY BY INCREASING BLOCKING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURES A CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF D+8 IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH THE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS EXCEPT IT AGAIN FORECASTS A STRONGER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... MORE IN ACCORD WITH BOTH THE 7-DAY AND 30-DAY MEAN BIAS CORRECTIONS TO THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS MODEL PROGS. THUS IT WAS GIVEN LARGER WEIGHTS IN THE BLEND FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALONG WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE BEST OVERALL ANOMALY CORRELATION SCORE IN RECENT WEEKS... BUT PROBABLY DOES NOT SHOW ENOUGH RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE PACIFIC POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE GOING FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER BETWEEN GREENLAND AND ICELAND THEY FAVOR NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST... DUE TO THE OUT-OF-PHASE CONFLICTING RESPONSE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM A NEGATIVE PHASE PNA AND A NEGATIVE PHASE NAO. THUS A WEAK RIDGE AS DEPICTED ON THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY MEAN FORECAST IS PROBABLY A GOOD COMPROMISE... BUT THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THAT AREA. MODEL OF THE DAY: OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN (TIED) THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 20 PERCENT OF THE 06Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8... 10 PERCENT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8... 10 PERCENT OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND 30 PERECENT OF THE ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS RATED AS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5... DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS DAYS SOLUTIONS ... OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE TELECONNECTION CONFLICT DISCUSSED ABOVE. THE D+8 TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG...ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG AND THE BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE D+8 PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG ...THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE CALIBRATED AND BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 28 - FEB 3 2004 THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS FORECASTS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD FROM THAT SEEN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE DAILY GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD CHARTS AND THE SPAGHETTI DIGRAMS BOTH INDICATE A RELATIVELY LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... AND SOME IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE ATLANTIC... BUT STILL NOT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE U.S. THE BLOCKING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS PREDICTED TO RETROGRADE FARTHER... FROM ICELAND TO THE WESTERN SHORE OF GREENLAND... WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC REMAINS IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION. THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE U.S. AND THE RIDGE NEAR THE EAST COAST ARE INDICATED TO PROGRESS SLIGHTLY... ALTHOUGH THE 06Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DIGS THE U.S. TROUGH AND NEGATIVE ANOMALY STRONGLY BACK INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS REASONABLE IN VIEW OF THE OVERALL SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN THAT IS ALSO PREDICTED BY MOST OF THE MODELS... WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MEAN WAVELENGTH INCREASING SLIGHTLY. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 20 PERCENT OF THE 06Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11... 10 PERCENT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11... 20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAYS 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN CENTERED ON DAY 10 AND 10 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7. BY THIS TIME THE RETROGRADING BLOCKING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE EFFECTIVE AT KNOCKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS RATED AS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5... DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND DAY-TO-DAY CONSISTENCY... ALTHOUGH THE RATE AT WHICH THE STRONG ATLANTIC BLOCK RETROGRADES WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE DETERMINATION OF THE WEEK TWO WEATHER OVER THE EAST- ERN U.S. THE D+11 TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG... ANALOGS TO THE MODELS AND THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG... AND THE BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE D+11 PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG AND THE OTHER MODEL PROGS... THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICA- TIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG ... THE ENSEMBLE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES AND THE CALIBRATED AND BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS. FORECASTER: A. J. WAGNER . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE... PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE 1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED THURSDAY FEB 19TH. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19950126 - 19770120 - 19770131 - 19850124 - 19800123 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19850124 - 19770201 - 19610126 - 19800123 - 19950126 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B B NEVADA B N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B N MAINE N B MASS B N CONN B A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N B W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA N A OHIO N N KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$