PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2004 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 26 2004 . . . . . . . THE MODELS AT DAY 5 ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A SPLIT-FLOW CIRCULATION OVER THE CONUS. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY. THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE EAST PACIFIC EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A HANG-BACK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THIS CIRCULATION REGIEME WOULD ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO INTRUDE INTO THE STATES ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES. DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS FORECASTS THE PATTERN NOT TO CHANGE MUCH FROM THAT FORECAST AT DAY 5. THE FLOW REMAINS SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED BY THE POLAR VORTEX NORTH OF HUDSON BAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURES A CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A HANG-BACK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE OPERATI0NAL ECMWF D+8 IS QUITE SIMILAR WITH THE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS EXCEPT IT FORECASTS A LITTLE LESS SEPARATION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETSTREAMS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...6Z GFS...CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR TO THE SOLUTIONS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF... EXCEPT FOR VERY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY GETS LEFT BEHIND IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THE DAVA WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CIRCULATION FEATURES OVER THE U.S. AND WAS DISCOUNTED. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOWS SLIGHTLY BETTER CONTINUITY WITH REGARD TO ITS RECENT FORECASTS AND WAS CHOSEN AS THE MODEL OF THE DAY. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD OVER THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CANADIAN MODEL...A MODERATE AMOUNT OF SPREAD OVER THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE PNA INDEX WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR ZERO IS FORECAST BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE TO BECOME POSITIVE BY DAY 7 THEN TREND NEGATIVE BY DAY 10 AND REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE END OF WEEK 2. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING THIS EVOLUTION SO THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF THE PNA INDEX IS RELATIVELY LOW. THE NAO INDEX WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO TREND TOWARDS ZERO BY DAY 7 BUT REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. THERE IS HOWEVER A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING HOW NEGATIVE THE NAO INDEX WILL BECOME BY THE END OF WEEK 2. BLOCKING OVER EUROPE AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DOES OFTEN EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTH AMERICA. MODEL OF THE DAY: OPERATIONAL ECMWF THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF THE 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8 AND 40 PERECENT OF THE ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS RATED AS ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY...3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE D+8 TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG...ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG AND THE BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE D+8 PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG ...THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE CALIBRATED AND BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 - 30 2004 THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS FORECASTS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD FROM THAT SEEN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ONE CHANGE FROM THE D+8 PERIOD IS THAT THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY IS FORECAST TO GO TO A MORE NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEEK 2. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE OZ OPERATIONAL GFS WHILE THE 6Z GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER TO PROGRESS THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE EAST COMPARED TO BOTH THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE DAVA D+11 IS EVEN FASTER THAN THE 6Z GFS IN PROGRESSING THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH TO THE EAST AND WAS DISCOUNTED. TODAYS 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS LEAVES MORE OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH BEHIND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS THE BEST CONTINUITY WITH REGARD TO THE SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD IN THE NORTHERN STREAM BUT A RATHER LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE PACIFIC. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 20 PERCENT OF THE 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11 AND 30 PERCENT OF THE OZ OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS RATED AS ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY...3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE D+11 TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG... ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG AND THE BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE D+11 PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG ...THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG ...THE ENSEMBLE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES AND THE CALIBRATED PERCIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE... PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE 1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED THURSDAY FEB 19TH. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19610124 - 19810103 - 19970118 - 19850124 - 19850114 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19810103 - 19610123 - 19850124 - 19970117 - 19561229 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A UTAH B B ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA N B OHIO B B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B B INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE N B MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$