PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2004 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 15 - 19 2004 . . . . . . . THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE 500-HPA PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE FIRST FIVE DAYS...AND EVEN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SOME OF THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THROUGH DAY 5 IN TODAYS RUNS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE INITIAL PATTERN OF A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW...ELONGATED WEST TO EAST...EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA BY DAY 5. THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST FOR THE 6 TO 10 PERIOD SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ON THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE...WITH GOOD CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS RUNS. AN ENHANCED MIDDLE LATITUDE JET CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. YESTERDAYS 12Z AND 18Z GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT FLATTER THAN THE OTHER RUNS...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED NEAR THE NORTH POLE... ASSOCIATED WITH THE PEAK OF THE WESTERN RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY TO THE POINT THAT IT BECOMES UNDERCUT AND FORMS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYLCONE IN SOME SOLUTIONS. THUS THE POLAR VORTEX IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTED WELL OFF THE POLE AND BROKEN INTO AT LEAST THREE STRONG LOBES. THE TWO STRONGEST OF THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EUROPE. THE PNA INDEX HAS RECENTLY GONE QUICKLY FROM EXTREMELY NEGATIVE TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE QUICKLY TO A STRONG POSITIVE VALUE...BUT THEN FALL BACK TOWARDS ZERO BY THE END OF THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. THE NAO INDEX HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE OVER THE PAST WEEK. IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STRONGLY NEGATIVE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THEN CLIMB TOWARDS ZERO LATER IN THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION INDEX HAS BEEN NEGATIVE AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME STRONGLY NEGATIVE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD BEFORE ALSO RELAXING TOWARDS ZERO. AGAIN TODAY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MOSTLY SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS... WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE RUNS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED AND A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT TOO GREAT. TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REASONABLY WELL. MODEL OF THE DAY: THE 6Z GFS THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...35 PERCENT OF THE LATEST 6Z GFS MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF THE 12Z GFS MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF THE 0Z GFS MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS RATED AS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...4 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE D+8 TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG...ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG...AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE CDC MOS TOOL. THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET...AND CDC TOOLS DO NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ALASKA...BASED ON THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AND ANALOGS...SO CATEGORICAL ABOVE NORMAL WAS FORECAST BUT WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE D+8 PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG...THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG... CALIBRATED AND BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS...CALIBRATED GFS ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION...AND PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 17 - 23 2004 A CONSENSUS OF THE PRINCIPAL MODELS FOR WEEK 2 INDICATES A COLD PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE U.S. ...BUT WITH A SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN AND MORE MEAN TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES IMPLYING THAT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD ON AVERAGE. MODEL MEANS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE...ALTHOUGH EXAMINATION OF THE DAILY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS SHOW THAT THE DETAILED EVOLUTIONS LEADING TO THE TIME MEANS DIFFER AS IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 60 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF EACH OF THE 0Z AND 6Z HIGH RESOLUTION GFS RUNS CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS RATED AS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...4 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE D+11 TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG...ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG...AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE CDC MOS TOOL. AS WITH THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD...THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET...AND CDC TEMPERATURE TOOLS DO NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ALASKA...BASED ON THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE ANALOGS ARE WARMER AND LOOK MORE REASONABLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN ALASKA...AND WERE GIVEN MORE WEIGHT. THE D+11 PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG...THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG... CALIBRATED AND BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS...CALIBRATED GFS ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION...AND PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE. FORECASTER: R. MARTIN . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE... PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE 1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED... THURSDAY JAN 15 2004. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19961228 - 19740112 - 19961225 - 19801223 - 19641221 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19961223 - 19961227 - 19641221 - 19740112 - 19500117 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE ISL B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK S COAST A A AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B N NEVADA B B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE ISL B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK S COAST A A AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$