PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2004 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 12 - 16 2004 . . . . . . . THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE 500-HPA PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE FIRST FIVE DAYS... WITH A RIDGE FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT WHILE THE DOWNTREAM TROUGH FIRST DEAMPLIFIES AND THEN DEEPENS AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS OF SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ARE DIVERGING NOTICEABLY EVEN BY DAY 3 IN THE MODEL RUNS... IN PART DUE TO THE FAST FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS SHOWS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ON THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE...WITH GOOD CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS RUNS AGAIN TODAY. AN ENHANCED MIDDLE LATITUDE JET IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THIS IS AN EXTREME FLIP IN THE PNA ON A VERY SHORT TIME SCALE AS THE PNA INDEX IS PRESENTLY STILL VERY NEGATIVE...ALTHOUGH IT HAS RISEN SHARPLY THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT ALL THE D+8 MODEL MEANS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST IT TO BE HIGHLY POSITIVE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NAO INDEX HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE AND IS FORECAST TO STAY THAT WAY DURING THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. IN GENERAL THE MODEL MEAN SOLUTIONS WOULD CONTINUE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY MODEL MEAN FORECASTS THAT WOULD IMPLY PROBABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE SEVERITY OF THE COLD...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE DIFFERNCES IN PRECIPITATION IN SOME AREAS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS WELL AS THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF RUN... HAVE MORE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND U.S. WEST COAST... SUGGESTING A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT MORE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE WOULD INFLUENCE THE U.S. WEATHER. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO ARE SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED THAN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS...WHICH IS TYPICAL BUT WOULD IMPLY SOMEWHAT LESS SEVERELY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN STATES IF TAKEN AT FACE VALUE. THE 12Z AND ESPECIALLY THE 18Z GFS RUNS ALSO ARE FLATTER AND HAVE MORE PACIFIC FLOW TROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE THAN THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND THE ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS. THESE PATTERNS WOULD ALSO IMPLY SOMEWHAT LESS INTENSE COLD FOR THE EASTERN STATES. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MOSTLY SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE RUNS TODAY BUT HIGHER SPREAD THAN YESTERDAY. THAT IS ESPECIALLY NOLRICABLE IN THE SPREAD AMONG MEMBERS IN THE AMOUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM/SPLIT FLOW FORECAST ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THERE IS ALSO MORE SPREAD IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN TODAYS ENSEMBLE. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT THE PHASING IS SIMILAR. UNFORTUNATELY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CAN NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE BLEND AT THE PRESENT TIME. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE D+8 MEAN SOLUTIONS OF A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN. HOWEVER... TELECONNECTIONS FROM SOME HIGH LATITUDE POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTERS NORTH OF ALASKA...WHICH MANY OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOW...SUGGEST THAT UNDERCUTTING OF THE WESTERN RIDGE COULD DEAMPLIFY THE FLOW OVER THE U.S. AND LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL OF THE DAY: GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 35 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF THE LATEST 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 10 PERCENT OF THE LATEST 6Z GFS RUN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAYS 18Z GFS RUN CENTERED ON DAY 8....AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAYS CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED OF DAY 8. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS RATED AS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY...3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE D+8 TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG...AND ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG. THE D+8 PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG...THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG... CALIBRATED AND BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS...AND CALIBRATED GFS ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 14 - 20 2004 A CONSENSUS OF THE PRINCIPAL MODELS FOR WEEK 2 INDICATES THAT THE NORTH AMERICAN CIRCULATION WILL CHANGE ONLY MODESTLY IN THE MEAN FROM THE FORECAST 6 TO 10 DAY PATTERN. THE MAIN CHANGES FORECAST BY THE MODELS ARE FOR MORE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO BUILD FROM THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO TO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND FOR SOMEWHAT OF A RETROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THESE CHANGES WOULD MAKE THE NAO INDEX MORE NEGATIVE AND DECREASE THE POSITIVE PNA INDEX VALUES THAT ARE FORECAST FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD...BUT THE MODEL SKILL IN FORECASTING THE THESE INDICES AT THIS TIME RANGE IS... LIKE MOST MODEL PERFROMANCE AT THIS TIME RANGE...AT BEST MODEST. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WOULD BE EVOLVING TOWARD ONE THAT WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE TO BRINGING COASTAL STORMS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF EACH OF THE MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION GFS RUNS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF THE DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS 5-DAY MEAN ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS CONSIDERED NEAR AVERAGE TODAY...3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE D+11 TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG...AND ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG. THE D+11 PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG...THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG... CALIBRATED AND BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS...AND CALIBRATED GFS ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION. FORECASTER: R. MARTIN . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE... PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE 1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED... THURSDAY JAN 15 2004. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19500115 - 19961222 - 19540120 - 19500127 - 19500112 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19500115 - 19500127 - 19500112 - 19540119 - 19961222 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B N CONN B N RHODE ISL B N PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK S COAST A A AK PNHDL A N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B N CONN B N RHODE ISL B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK S COAST A N AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$