PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST WED DEC 17 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 23 - 27 2003 . . . . . . . . THE MODELS AT DAY 5 ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD AND WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS BASED SOLUTIONS ARE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE IN THE EAST AND THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY THE EASTERN U.S. SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH DAY 5 AND ONLY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO START OFF BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WHILE THE WEST SHOULD EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE FIRST 5 DAYS. DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE CIRCULATION PATTERN COMPARED TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF. THE DEEPER TROUGH DEPICTED BY THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS WOULD ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BUT GIVEN THE PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THIS AIRMASS... TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS REGION DURING THE D+8 PERIOD. THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FORECAST BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF WOULD LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THE 6Z GFS... GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DAVA MORE CLOSELY SUPPORT THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS ALTHOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DAVA ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO LIE BETWEEN THE MORE AMPLIFIED GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS AND THE LESS AMPLIFIED HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF. THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF SHOWS SOMEWHAT BETTER CONTINUITY COMPARED TO THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS BUT THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS BETTER SUPPORTED BY THE SOLUTIONS FROM THE OTHER MODELS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS FROM THE GFS... ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MODERATE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN REGARD TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE D+8 PERIOD. THE PNA INDEX WHICH HAS BEEN POSITIVE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER IS FORECAST BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH ABOUT DAY 7... TREND TOWARDS ZERO BY DAY 10 AND RETURN TO POSITIVE VALUES BY THE END OF WEEK 2. THE NAO INDEX WHICH HAS BEEN WEAKLY NEGATIVE SINCE EARLY DECEMBER IS FORECAST TO STAY WEAKLY NEGATIVE UNTIL AROUND DAY 7 AND IS THEN FORECAST TO TREND TOWARDS ZERO THROUGH THE END OF WEEK 2. MODEL OF THE DAY: GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 25 PERCENT OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7... 20 PERCENT OF THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8... 15 PERCENT OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 AND 10 PERCENT OF THE DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8. THE D+8 TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICAL HEIGHT BLEND CHART... ANALOGS TO THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT CENTER AT 50N 140W AND THE BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE MOS FORECASTS AND CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE NOT AVAILABLE. THE D+8 PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON GFS ENSEMBLE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES... ANALOGS TO THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD...THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICAL HEIGHT BLEND...THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... THE BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT CENTER AT 50N 140W. . . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 25 - 31 2003 DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS FORECASTS THE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TO QUICKLY DEAMPLIFY FROM THAT PREDICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLOWER TO DEAMPLIFY THE CIRCULATION PATTERN BUT IS FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE CIRCULATION FEATURES COMPARED TO THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE DAVA IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN EXCEPT IT DEPICTS HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE 6Z GFS IS FASTER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS BUT SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. NONE OF THE MODELS SUGGEST ANY ARCTIC AIR WILL PENETRATE VERY FAR INTO THE STATES BUT FALLING HEIGHTS IN THE WEST SUPPORT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE WEST THAN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS THE BEST CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THE SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE A RELATIVELY LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11... 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11 AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAYS 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... RATED A 2 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5... DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE D+11 TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS TO THE BLEND... ANALOGS TO THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... AND THE 850-HPA BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE D+11 PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES... NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS TO THE BLEND...ANALOGS TO THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND THE BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ... THURSDAY DEC 18 2003. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19821222 - 19511202 - 19941218 - 19811203 - 19771215 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19821222 - 19511202 - 19521225 - 19811202 - 19941218 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N B UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$