PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 18 - 22 2003 . . . . . . . . DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... THE ENSEMBLES FROM THE GFS... ECMWF... AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS THE WEAKEST POSITIVE PNA SIGNAL OF THE THREE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION 00Z GFS AND 06Z GFS RUNS ARE ESSENTIALLY ZONAL WITH THE MOST DOMINANT FEATURE BEING LARGE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHWEST STATES. THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF RUN MAINTAINS A STRONG POSITIVE PNA WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. POSITIVE PNA PATTERNS TEND TO BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WESTERN US AND LEAVES THE EASTERN US SUSCEPTABLE TO COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS... ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL OF THE DAY: GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 55 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 25 PERCENT OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7... 10 PERCENT OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 AND 5 PERCENT EACH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION 00Z GFS AND 06Z GFS RUNS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT YET AVAILABLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE OFFICIAL BLEND. THE D+8 TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEINS SPECIFICATIONS AND ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND TO THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AS WELL AS THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES. ALL TOOLS SHOW COLD IN THE SOUTHEAST CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST POSITIVE PNA PATTERN. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENTAL US EXTENDING INTO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH A 500-HPA RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF A TROUGH AXIS IN THE NORTHEAST MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS REGION VERY UNCERTAIN. A SHIFT TO THE WEST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WOULD FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES WHILE A SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WOULD FAVOR COLDER TEMPERATURES. AT THE 6 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME... UNCERTAINTIES ARE TOO GREAT TO PREDICT THE MEAN LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE LEVEL OF PRECISION NECESSARY TO ISSUE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE OR BELOW WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE D+8 PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON GFS ENSEMBLE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES AS WELL AS ANALOGS AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS TO THE BLEND AND GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. MOST TOOLS INDICATE SOME WETNESS IN PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST OF A 500-HPA TROUGH IN THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENTAL US WILL BE DRIER THAN NORMAL AS THE 500-HPA PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR ADVECTION OF MOSTURE FROM EITHER THE GULF OF MEXICO OR THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE EXTREME NORTHWEST AS WELL AS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH COAST WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A FORECAST 500-HPA TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. . . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 20 - 26 2003 FOR THE D+11 PERIOD... THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WEST. IN CONTRAST TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK... NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ARE NOW FORECAST TO PENETRATE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION 06Z GFS RUN. IN THE 00Z GFS... THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE SOUTHEAST TYPICAL OF A POSITIVE PNA ARE LARGELY ABSENT. THE 06Z GFS RUN AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN RETAIN THIS FEATURE AND MOVE IT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 90 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 AND 05 PERCENT EACH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION 00Z GFS AND 06 GFS RUNS. FOR THE WEEK 2 TIME SCALE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TENDS TO HAVE BETTER SKILL THAN THE SINGLE DETERMINISTIC OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS MODEL RUN. IN ADDITION... THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS CONSISTENTLY OUTPERFORMED THE DAVA MODEL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... RATED A 3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE D+11 TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON ANALOGS AND KLEINS SPECIFICATIONS TO THE BLEND AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER... THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE COLD IN THE EAST WAS SCALED BACK DUE TO THE FORECAST SOUTHWESTERLY RETROGRESSION OF THE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY IN THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE HAS WEAKENED IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAYS SOLUTION... IT STILL SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP MUCH OF THE WESTERN US WARMER THAN NORMAL. WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA WERE DEPICTED AS COLDER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE FORECAST 500-HPA PATTERN. THE D+11 PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES AND NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS TO THE BLEND AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 500-HPA TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL LEAVE THE SOUTHEAST WETTER THAN NORMAL. THE NORTHWEST HAS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AHEAD OF A FORECAST 500-HPA TROUGH LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE CENTER OF THE NATION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NW 500-HPA FLOW WHICH TENDS TO LIMIT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ENTERING THE REGION. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ... THURSDAY DEC 18 2003. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19931215 - 19521224 - 19921211 - 19841129 - 19691208 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19931214 - 19921211 - 19591225 - 19931217 - 19521224 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$