PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST WED DEC 10 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 16 - 20 2003 . . . . . . . . DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS...ECMWF... AND CANADIAN ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGE IN THE WEST. THE MEAN POSITION OF THE EASTERN TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH HAVE IT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE WEST... THE ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST RIDGE WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS THE FLATTEST PATTERN. THE MEAN POSITION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE IS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AND SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE WITH THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. ALL THREE SOLUTIONS PLACE MUCH OF THE ALASKAN SOUTH COAST AND PANHANDLE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN THE WEST... THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGE THAN THE 00Z GFS. COMPARING TODAYS AND YESTERDAYS RUNS INDICATES A TREND TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE WESTERN RIDGE IN THE ECMWF... GFS... AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS AND PROGRESSION OF A TROUGH FURTHER EAST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. 500-HPA ANOMALY CORRELATIONS FOR THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AS COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY POOR DURING THE PAST WEEK. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH RELATIVELY LOW ANOMALY CORRELATIONS RELATIVE TO THE OTHER MODELS TO ITS COMPOSITE ANALOG CONVINCED ME TO LOWER THE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE CANADIAN MODEL IN THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND. IN ADDITION... SINCE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT YET AVAILABLE TO THE BLEND... THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF WAS USED IN ITS PLACE AS A CLOSE APPROXIMATION. MODEL OF THE DAY: GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 60 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 30 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION CENTERED ON DAY 7... AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS AND ANALOGS TO THE VARIOUS MODELS AND OFFICIAL BLEND... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES. THE COLD IN THE SOUTHEAST IS WEAKLY SUPPORTED BY THE ANALOGS ON THE BLEND AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY ANALOGS TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE KLEINS FROM ALL THREE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS WELL AS THE BLEND ALSO SUPPORT THE COLD IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD AREA WAS ALSO EXTENDED INTO TEXAS DUE TO STONG SIGNALS FROM THE CDC CALIBRATED TOOL... WHICH HAS BEEN THE BEST SCORING TOOL FOR D+8 TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 90 DAYS. IN GENERAL... THE KLEINS AND ANALOGS FAVOR WARMTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER... THE CDC TOOL FAVORED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOR A TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES INDICATES THE BEST CHOICE IS LESS WARMTH IN THAT REGION. IN THE WEST... THE WARMTH IS STRONGLY INDICATED BY THE KLEINS OFF THE BLEND AND ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE DAVA. THE ANALOGS ALSO HINT AT WARM IN THE WEST FOR ALL MODELS AND THE BLEND. IN ALASKA... THE WARMTH IN THE PANHANDLE WAS SUPPORTED BY THE KLEINS AND ANALOGS TO THE BLEND AS WELL AS THE CDC TOOL. THE TOOLS CONFLICTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA WITH THE ANALOGS PREDICTING COLD...THE CDC TOOL PREDICTING WARM... AND THE CDC TOOL PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY... NEAR NORMAL IS PREDICTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS MOSTLY BASED ON ANALOGS AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS TO THE VARIOUS MODELS AND BLEND... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE CDC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS WERE CONSIDERED BUT GIVEN LESS WEIGHT DUE TO RELATIVELY POOR SKILL SCORES DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS. THE WETNESS IN THE EAST COAST WAS SUPPORTED BY VIRTUALLY ALL TOOLS...INCLUDING THE ANALOGS... NEURAL NET... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES. THE WETNESS WAS EXTENDED TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DUE TO SUPPORT FROM THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE NEURAL NET FROM THE BLEND. THE DRYNESS IN MUCH OF THE CENTER AND WEST WAS BASED ON THE ANALOGS FROM THE BLEND AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE CDC AND EMC HAD SOME WETNESS IN THE CENTER OF THE CONUS BUT THIS WAS DISCOUNTED DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW SKILL SCORES FROM THOSE TOOLS AS WELL AS THE LACK OF ANY FEATURE IN THE 500-HPA BLEND FLOW PATTERN THAT WOULD CAUSE SUCH WETNESS IN THIS REGION. TEXAS AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WERE LEFT AS NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION DUE TO CONFLICTING SIGNALS AMONG THE TOOLS. IN ALASKA... THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH COAST WERE DEPICTED AS WET DUE TO INDICATIONS FROM THE ANALOGS AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AS WELL AS THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN PREDICTED BY THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND FOR THAT REGION. . . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 18 - 24 2003 FOR THE D+11 PERIOD... THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGE IN THE WEST. THE LOCATION OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE ARE APPROXIMATELY THE SAME IN BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN IS EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE 00Z GFS. THE 06Z GFS... IN CONTRAST...LIFTS THE EASTERN TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST AND FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE. ANOMALY CORRELATIONS BETWEEN THE MODEL FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND THE OBSERVED HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SHARPLY DOWNWARD FOR THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... 00Z GFS... AND 06Z GFS SINCE ABOUT MID-NOVEMBER. HOWEVER... TODAYS ANALOG ANOMALY CORRELATIONS... WHICH COMPARES THE MODEL FORECASTS WITH WHAT HAS ACTUALLY HAPPENED IN THE PAST ARE QUITE GOOD... WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST SCORING A VALUE OF 0.97. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 90 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 05 PERCENT OF TODAYS 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11... AND 05 PERCENT OF TODAYS 06Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... RATED A 3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND... ANALOGS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ... AND CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES. ANALOGS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND WERE UNAVAILABLE TODAY. THE COLD IN THE EAST WAS SUPPORTED BY THE KLEINS AND ANALOGS AND THE CDC TOOL. THE CDC TOOL ALSO INDICATED COLD IN TEXAS BUT TEXAS WAS PREDICTED AS NORMAL IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT FROM THE KLEINS AND ANALOG TOOLS. ALSO PREDICTED AS NORMAL WAS MUCH OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE KLEIN TOOL WANTED TO EXTEND WARMTH FROM THE WEST INTO THE REGION BUT THIS WAS NOT SUPPORTED BY EITHER THE CDC TOOL OR THE ANALOGS. IN THE WEST...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE INDICATED BY ALL OF THE TOOLS. IN ADDITION... THE ANALOGS AS WELL AS THE CDC TOOL EXTEND THIS WARMTH INTO THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA. NO CLEAR SIGNAL WAS GLEANED FROM THE TOOLS FOR THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA HOWEVER. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ... NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND... AND ANALOGS TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. A LARGE AREA OF DRYNESS WAS PREDICTED BY ALL TOOLS FOR THE CENTER PART OF THE CONUS. WETNESS WAS INDICATED IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND IN NEW ENGLAND BY THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES TOOL AS WELL AS THE ANALOGS. THE FORECAST FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS LESS CERTAIN... WITH THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION TOOL INDICATING WET AND THE ANALOGS DRY. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WAS LEFT AS NEAR NORMAL. ALSO LEFT AS NEAR NORMAL WERE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MUCH OF ALASKA DUE TO CONFLICTS AMONG THE TOOLS. THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASAKA... HOWEVER... WAS INDICATED AS WET BY THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION...ANALOG... AND NEURAL NET TOOLS. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ... THURSDAY DEC 18 2003. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19931214 - 19811210 - 19591224 - 19611128 - 19521206 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19811210 - 19871206 - 19931214 - 19691215 - 19811122 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N B UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A B IOWA N B MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$