PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST WED DEC 3 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 9 - 13 2003 . . . . . . . TODAYS MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE MEAN 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN AFFECTING NORTH AMERICA IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CANADA ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY ALL MODELS. THE MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH IS NOW FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE GFS... AND IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THE ECMWF. THIS TROUGH POSITION IS TO THE WEST OF THE POSITION ON YESTERDAYS GFS RUNS AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH YESTERDAYS ECMWF. THE ECMWF WILL BE WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY IN TODAYS BLEND BECAUSE OF BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE DAILY MAPS SHOW A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PROGRESSING RAPIDLY IN THE FLOW... DEEPENING IN THE MEAN TROUGH AND THEN MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THIS FAVORS CONSIDERABLE DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS AVERAGING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE NATION... WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOST LIKELY TO FINISH THE PERIOD AVERAGING ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL - AND AREAS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. MOST LIKELY TO AVERAGE COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH RAPIDLY MOVING BUT STRONG SHORT WAVES ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PERIOD... THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WILL BE PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGHS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THE SLIGHT MEAN RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST LESSENS THE IMPACT OF SHORT WAVES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST - HOWEVER A STEADY STREAM OF DISTURBANCES SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION THERE AT LEAST IN THE NORMAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER MOST OF ALASKA ... HOWEVER THE ALASKAN PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN SINCE IT DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WHETHER IT WILL DIVERT THE STORM TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. MODEL OF THE DAY: ECMWF FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS RATED BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT OF THE MOST RECENT ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...30 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS... MOS TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND ANALOGS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS INDICATE MOSTLY SMALL ANOMALIES EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND IN ALASKA. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOGS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS... NERUAL NET SPECIFICATIONS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS ON BIAS-CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG TOOLS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS... WITH SOME MODELS INTENSIFYING THE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL OF THE COUNTRY FARTHER WEST THAN OTHERS... ALLOWING MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY INDICATE THAT STORM SYSTEMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD BEFORE GATHERING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 11 - 17 2003 THE UNSETTLED PATTERN PREDICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 14. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THE MEAN TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TO THE EASTERN U.S. WITHIN THE PERIOD. ANOMALIES IN THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE SMALL OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - EXCEPT FOR ALASKA. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN WESTERN CANADA. AT THE CURRENT TIME MODELS PREDICT A WEAK RIDGE WHICH WILL KEEP THE FLOW ZONAL AND SOMEWHAT MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... HOWEVER EVEN MINOR INTENSIFICATION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH. AS A RESULT THE PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE KEPT NEAR THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN SPITE OF GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS FOR RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES IN ZONAL FLOW. PRECIPITATION OVER THE CONUS IS MOSTLY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE... SINCE UPPER AIR FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE NATION WILL BE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE ENHANCED PACIFIC JET IS FORECAST TO EXTEND EASTWARD FROM ITS POSITION ON THE 6 TO 10 DAY MEAN -- ELEVATING CHANCES OF WET CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST - AND A SIGNIFICANT FRACTION OF GFS ENSEMBLES PREDICT ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 70 PERCENT OF OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE CENTERED ON DAY 11 AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG... AND ANALOGS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ANALOGS TO THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN VARIOUS TOOLS FOR PRECIPITATION PREDICTION WAS POOR TODAY EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE MOST TOOLS FAVORED DRY CONDITIONS. FORECASTER: D. UNGER . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ... THURSDAY DEC 18 2003. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19911215 - 19791116 - 19971124 - 19591208 - 19741117 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19971124 - 19741117 - 19911215 - 19581120 - 19791116 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA N N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH B B ARIZONA B N COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA N B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA N B OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$