PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 4 - 8 2003 . . . . . . . TODAYS MODEL RUNS UNDERSCORE THE DIFFICULTY IN FORECASTING THE CIRCU- LATION PATTERN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN VICIN- ITY. WHEREAS RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN RETROGRADING THE LONGWAVE TRAIN OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE...TODAYS RUNS ARE INDICATING PRO- GRESSION...BY STARTING TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND PREDICTING A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EAST. WITH THE FAST MID-LATITUDE JETSTREAM RACING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC...WE WOULD EXPECT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE U.S...HENCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE AND HAS MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48. THE 0Z GFS AND 6Z GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN FEATURES OF THE FLOW PATTERN. TODAYS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE WESTERN TROUGH AND EASTERN RIDGE MOVING INTO PLACE...IN THE MEAN OF COURSE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS OFFICIAL PROG... BEING A BIT SLOWER IN ADJUSTING TO THE NEW PREDICTED PATTERN BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION GFS MODELS. THE ECMWF...WHICH ALL WEEK HAS BEEN THE FIRST MODEL TO LATCH ONTO THE PATTERN CHANGES...HAS A FLAT ZONAL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE TEMPERATE LATITUDES OF THE PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICA. WITH THE DAY-TO-DAY MODEL VARIABILITY...AND THE DIFFICULTY IN TRYING TO PREDICT WHERE THE CIRCULATION IS HEADED...IT WAS DECIDED TO FLATTEN THE FLOW CONSIDERABLY WHILE ALSO BRINGING ABOUT THE CHANGE INDICATED BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION GFS RUNS. THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) REMAINS IN A NEUTRAL PHASE... THOUGH WE ARE MONITORING A HUGE ANOMALOUS BLOCK OVER EUROPE DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD...AS WELL AS OVER THE MID TO HIGH LATITUDES OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. TYPICALLY...THESE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKS OVER EUROPE TEND TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND CANADA...CAUSING THE NAO INDEX TO SWITCH SIGN...FROM A POSITIVE TO A NEGATIVE PHASE. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ABUNDANT RESERVOIR OF COLD AIR OVER CANADA WHICH SPILLS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IF THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH A MEAN STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE MEGALOPOLIS...SNOWY CONDITIONS CAN RESULT ACROSS THAT REGION. MODEL OF THE DAY: ECMWF FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS RATED AS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE FLOW PATTERN CON- TINUES TO BE CONSTANTLY EVOLVING...AND HAS NOT YET LOCKED INTO A STABLE AND DURABLE CONFIGURATION. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 25 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8... 40 PERCENT OF TODAYS ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7 ...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET AND FIRST GUESS SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT FIELD... MOS TEMPERA- TURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE....ANALOGS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS... AND CONSIDERATION OF THE GFS DAILY FORECAST MAPS OF THICKNESS ADVECTION AND STORM TRACKS. IT IS ALSO BASED ON BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z GFS. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT FIELD... ANALOGS FROM THE ASSORTED MODELS ...AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS. IT IS ALSO BASED ON BIAS-CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 6 - 12 2003 DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD...THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS RUNS FORECAST CONSIDER- ABLE PROGRESSION FROM THE ANTICIPATED 6-10 DAY CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS ALSO SIMILAR...THOUGH FLATTER. THE 8-14 DAY OFFICIAL PROG SHOWS THE MEAN TROUGH ALREADY INTO THE ROCKIES...AND THE DOWNWIND RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE BLEND ALSO FORECASTS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF EUROPE - AND MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN REGION SHOULD BRING STORMY CONDITIONS TO THAT AREA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK 2 FORECAST IS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 45 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11... 45 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS EUROPEAN 5-DAY MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET AND FIRST GUESS SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG... AND ANALOGS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS. IT IS ALSO BASED ON BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z GFS. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG...THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND ANALOGS TO THE VARIOUS MODELS. IT IS ALSO BASED ON BIAS-CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS. FORECASTER: A. ARTUSA . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ... THURSDAY DEC 18 2003. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19711210 - 19941116 - 19901126 - 19701120 - 19751211 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19941116 - 19711210 - 19701119 - 19751211 - 19941119 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N N NEVADA N A W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N B WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$