PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST WED NOV 26 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 2 - 6 2003 . . . . . . . THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS - GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN - EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN - AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED FOR THE NORTH AMERICAN SECTOR DURING DAYS 6-10. THOUGH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE FORECAST... OVERALL THE CONSENSUS PATTERN SHOWS A SOLID RESEMBLANCE TO YESTER- DAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF D+8 AND THE DAVA D+8 ARE THE OBVIOUS OUTLIERS...GOING WITH A MEAN PATTERN DISPLACED ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES LONGITUDE FURTHER WEST COMPARED WITH THE OTHER MODEL RUNS. THE CORNERSTONE OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE POSITIONING OF AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR HAWAII. MOST MODELS FAVOR IT TO ALIGN NEAR 170W...THOUGH AS NOTED ABOVE THE ECMWF AND DAVA HAVE ABOUT A 15 DEGREE WESTWARD SHIFT IN ITS LOCATION. THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION FEATURES PREDICTED ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN SECTOR INCLUDE THIS MEAN RIDGE NEAR HAWAII - A MEAN TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST - A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST - AND A TROUGH JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE PRUDHOE BAY OILFIELDS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN ALASKA...WHICH WOULD BRING UNUSUALLY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG WESTERLY JET IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW...TAKING AIM AT THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. AS FOR THE NAO...IT IS CURRENTLY IN A NEUTRAL PHASE...THOUGH WE ARE NOTICING A HUGE ANOMALOUS BLOCK OVER EUROPE AS OF THIS FORECAST PER- IOD...AS WELL AS OVER THE MID TO HIGH LATITUDES OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. TYPICALLY...THESE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKS OVER EUROPE TEND TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND CANADA...CAUSING THE NAO INDEX TO GO NEGATIVE. THIS SCENARIO HOWEVER...MAY STILL BE SEVERAL WEEKS AWAY. MODELS OF THE DAY: 0Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS RATED AS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR HAWAII SEEMS TO BE BETTER INDICATED TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND HENCE THE UPGRADE IN CONFIDENCE. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7... 25 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z GFS CEN- TERED ON DAY 8... 20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAYS 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 7 ...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET AND FIRST GUESS SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT FIELD... MOS TEMPERA- TURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE....ANALOGS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND THE BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURE FIELD FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT FIELD... ANALOGS FROM THE OFFICAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREDICTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING MUCH OF THIS TIME...A DEEP LAYER OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND STEADY EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROBABLY SET UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WITHIN THIS ZONE...WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 4 - 10 2003 DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD... THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS RUNS FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE 6-10 DAY CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS ALSO SIMILAR...THOUGH FLATTER. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE CIRCULATION RETURNING TO A WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE SCENARIO LATER IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD...AFTER A BRIEF AND TEMPORARY PATTERN CHANGE. THE OFFICIAL BLEND ALSO ANTICIPATES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF EUROPE - THE FAR NORTHERN ATLANTIC - AND MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA...WITH A LARGE AREA OF BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHTS UNDERCUTTING THIS WIDESPREAD BLOCKING. A DEEP UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN REGION SHOULD BRING STORMY CONDITIONS TO THAT AREA...ESPECIALLY AROUND ITALY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK 2 FORECAST IS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT...AND SOME PER- SISTENCE ANTICIPATED IN THE WAVETRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN SEC- TOR. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE CENTERED ON DAY 11. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET AND FIRST GUESS SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG... ANALOGS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND ON THE 850-HPA BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG...THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ANALOGS TO THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND THE BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. FORECASTER: A. ARTUSA . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ... THURSDAY DEC 18 2003. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19941116 - 19711210 - 19701127 - 19901120 - 19701119 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19701127 - 19941116 - 19901119 - 19711209 - 19701119 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN A B RHODE IS N N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$