PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST MON NOV 24 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 30 - DEC 4 2003 . . . . . . . THE DYNAMICAL MODEL RUNS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD SHOW CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN SECTOR...IN TERMS OF BOTH AMPLITUDE AND PHASING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE FORECASTS A MODERATELY AMP- LIFIED 500-HPA PATTERN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVER THE LOWER 48 AND CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...WITH AN EXTEN- SION SOUTHWESTWARD TO CALIFORNIA AND THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC. IT ALSO PREDICTS A FAIRLY SMALL BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE PRUDHOE BAY OILFIELDS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN ALASKA ...WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BRING COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE AREAS...AND PROBABLY EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALASKAN INTERIOR. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG WESTERLY JET IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW...TAKING AIM AT THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THE 0Z GFS RUN FORECASTS A PATTERN THAT IS REASONABLY SIMILAR TO THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGE...AND ALSO TO TODAYS DAVA INTEGRATION. TODAYS EURO- PEAN ENSEMBLE IS COMPATIBLE WITH THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...ALONG WITH YESTERDAYS HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF. HOWEVER...TODAYS HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF AND 6Z GFS ARE STRONGLY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE OTHER MODELS. BOTH HAVE A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S... AND RIDGING NEAR AND OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE ECMWF HAS A NOTICEABLY STRONGER RIDGE OVER THAT LOCATION...IN ADDITION TO A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEEDLESS TO SAY... THE ECMWF AND 6Z GFS OUTLIERS WERE DISCOUNTED TODAY. THE FORECAST IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE NOTION THAT A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED RIDGE NEAR OR ALONG 150W WILL BE THE KEY DETERMINANT IN HOW THE DOWNSTREAM WAVETRAIN SETS UP. THIS SHOULD FAVOR A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S....AND AT LEAST SOME RIDGING OVER THE EAST. AS FOR THE NAO...IT IS CURRENTLY IN A NEUTRAL PHASE...THOUGH WE ARE NOTICING A HUGE ANOMALOUS BLOCK OVER EUROPE AS OF THIS FORECAST PER- IOD. TYPICALLY...THESE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKS OVER EUROPE TEND TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND CANADA...WITH THE NAO INDEX GOING NEGATIVE. THIS SCENARIO HOWEVER...MAY STILL BE SEVERAL WEEKS AWAY. MODEL OF THE DAY: GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS RATED AS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5 DUE TO WIDE DISCREPANCIES AMONG SOME OF THE MODELS... AND IN SOME CASES SIGNIFICANT DIFFER- ENCES FROM YESTERDAY. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 35 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8... 20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAYS 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAYS ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 6... AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET AND FIRST GUESS SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT FIELD... MOS TEMPERA- TURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE....ANALOGS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND THE BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURE FIELD FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT FIELD... ANALOGS FROM THE OFFICAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 2 - 8 2003 DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS FORECASTS THE CIRCU- LATION PATTERN TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT...RELATIVE TO THE MEAN LONG- WAVE POSITIONS EXPECTED DURING DAYS 6-10. WITH TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN BEING RELATIVELY FLAT OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT WEIGHT WAS ASSIGNED TO YESTERDAYS 0Z GFS RUN WHICH LOOKED SIMILAR...THOUGH HAD GENEROUS AMPLITUDE. AT THE SURFACE...THE DIVIDING LINE SEPARATING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ALSO EX- PECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD A BIT TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST RETROGRESSION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK 2 FORECAST IS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT...AND SOME PER- SISTENCE ANTICIPATED IN THE WAVETRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN SEC- TOR. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 35 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF YESTER- DAYS 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10... AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE CENTERED ON DAY 11. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET AND FIRST GUESS SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG... ANALOGS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND ON THE 850-HPA BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG...THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ANALOGS TO THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND THE BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. FORECASTER: A. ARTUSA . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ... THURSDAY DEC 18 2003. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19901118 - 19701127 - 19941116 - 19701119 - 19701130 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19941116 - 19901118 - 19701127 - 19701119 - 19901121 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B B WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N B WYOMING B B UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$