PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 18 - NOV 22 2003 . . . . . . . TODAYS 500-HPA FORECASTS FROM THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY THREE AND THE MAIN DISCREPANCY AFTER THEN IS THAT THE ECMWF MODEL DIGS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON DAY FOUR... CLOSING OFF A CONTOUR AND MAKING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS CARRIES THROUGH DAY FIVE... AND APPARENTLY CONTRIBUTES TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS SHOWN NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER BY THE ECMWF MODEL COMPARED TO THE OTHER PRINCIPAL MODELS FOR THE 6-10 DAY MEAN. OTHERWISE... DIFFERENCES DURING THE FIRST FIVE DAYS DO NOT SEEM TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE LONG WAVES. IN THE MEAN FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE PREDICTED LARGE SCALE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. ALL MODELS AGREE ON MODERATELY STRONG BLOCKING BUILDING OVER EASTERN CANADA... CONNECTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALL FOUR OF THE LASTEST HIGH RESOLUTION GFS RUNS PLACE A NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND... AND THE ECMWF HAS IT OFF THE COAST... FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. APPARENTLY ONLY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ABLE TO CATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE... ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A STRONG TROUGH AND NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND THE YUKON TERRITORIES OF CANADA... EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG OR NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST... DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG RIDGE AND POSITIVE ANOMALY PREDICTED TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE TIP OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE ECMWF AGAIN IS BY FAR THE STRONGEST ON THIS FEATURE. GIVEN THIS MEAN PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS... THE MAIN SOURCE FOR UNUSUALLY COLD AIR FOR THE LOWER 48 STATES... WHICH IS NORTHWESTERN CANADA... SHOULD BE CUT OFF DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS BASED ON THE VARIOUS MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ANALOGS AGREE THAT THERE SHOULD BE NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR IN THE CONUS... ALTHOUGH SOME ANALOGS HINT AT A SMALL OR MEDIUM SIZED AREAS OF BELOW NORMAL ALONG VARIOUS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC COAST... WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE TRAJECTORIES OF THE PACIFIC AIR ENTERING THAT AREA ORIGINATE OVER THE ALEUTIANS. AGAIN TODAY ALL AGREE THAT MOST OF ALASKA SHOULD BE COLD. IN THE MEAN THE MODELS PREDICT A SOMEWHAT WEAKER EASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THAN YESTERDAY WEST OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA... WITH A NEGATIVE ANOMALY CENTER AND CYCLONIC ACTIVITY CENTERED OVER THE NORTH SEA AREA. THE SPREAD IN THE DAILY ENSEMBLE MAPS BECOMES VERY LARGE IN THE AREA OF ALASKA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TO THE SOUTH BY DAYS NINE AND TEN... ESPECIALLY AT SEA LEVEL ... SUGGESTING THAT THE DEPTH... TIMING... AND LOCATION OF THE SEA LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS THAT ACCOMPANIES THE DUMPING OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALAKSA IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. OVER THE CONUS... THE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES IS NOT TOO LARGE... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS DAILY PROGS GET OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN MAPS DURING WEEK TWO. MODEL OF THE DAY: ENSEMBLE MEAN DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER AVERAGE 500-HPA ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD REMAINS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5... DUE TO IMPROVED AGREEMENT AMONG PRINCIPAL MODELS... OFFSET BY A DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL RUNS AND MOST OF THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OVER THE NROTHEASTERN U.S.. NEVERTHELESS... TODAYS FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS... AND THE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA THAT ALL MODELS AGREE ON SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY DETERMINANT FOR THE TEMPERATURES. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAYS 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS ECMWF SOLUTION CENTERED ON DAY 7... 40 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA MODEL CENTERED ON DAY 8. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT FIELD... MOS TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE.... AND ANALOGS FROM TODAYS MODELS THAT WERE INCLUDED IN THE BLEND... WHICH WERE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT FIELD... THE BIAS CORRECTED AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS... AND ANALOGS FROM TODAYS MODELS THAT WERE INCLUDED IN THE BLEND. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 20 - NOV 26 2003 THE MODELS FOR WEEK TWO ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY... WITH THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES BEING IN THE DISPOSITION OF THE TROUGH AND NEGATIVE ANOMALY IN THE VICINITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS RUNS INITIALIZED AT 18Z AND 00Z HAVE A STRONGLY MERIDIONAL PATTERN WITH THE TROUGH AXIS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST... WHILE THE 06Z GFS RUN BRINGS THE ANOMALY CENTER WELL INLAND TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IMPLYING MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... AS SEEN BY THE KLEIN TEMPERATURE SPECIFICATIONS BASED ON THIS MODEL. THE 12Z GFS RUN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO IDEAS... AND IS ACTUALLY RATHER SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF 5-DAY MEAN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... ALLOWING THIS TO BE USED IN THE BLEND FOR THE WEEK TWO PERIOD. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A RIDGE WITH GENERALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A CONSOLIDATION OF THE AREAS OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN CANADA. THE DUMPING OF MUCH OF THE ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD OUT OF ALASKA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE OVER ALASKA AS THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MOVES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND MORE ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO MUCH OF THE STATE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK 2 FORECAST IS BACK TO AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO IMPROVED AGREEMENT IN THE PRINCIPAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AND LOWER SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OVER THE CONUS. THE 00Z GFS DAILY MAPS WERE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN DAILY PROGS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD... BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT AND ANOMALY PROGS APPRECIABLY. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 30 PERCENT OF TODAYS 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS ECMWF 5-DAY MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7... AND 10- PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG...WHICH WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT... AND ANALOGS FROM THE 00Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON BIAS CORRECTED AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS... NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG.... AND THE PERCENTAGE OF CALIBRATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A PREFERRED CATEGORY. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS ALSO GIVEN TO ANALOGS FROM THE 00Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE CATEGORICAL PERCENTAGES FROM THE CALIBRATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GAVE A SOMEWHAT MORE DECISIVE SIGNAL TODAY... ALTHOUGH THERE WERE STILL EXTENSIVE AREAS WITH NO PREFERRED CATEGORY INDICATED AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF THE TIME. FORECASTER: A. J. WAGNER . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ... THURSDAY NOV 20 2003. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19821109 - 19961104 - 19941117 - 19781121 - 19931117 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19781121 - 19861114 - 19941117 - 19821109 - 19711031 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N N WYOMING A B UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$