PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 17 - NOV 21 2003 . . . . . . . TODAYS 500-HPA FORECASTS FROM THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WAVE DETAILS AS EARLY AS DAY THREE BUT DO NOT INCREASE RAPIDLY OR AFFECT LATER EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. IN THE MEAN FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE... BUT HAVE LARGER DIFFERENCES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE U.S. THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY. THIS IS BORNE OUT BY THE FACT THAT THE 500-HPA ANOMALY FIELD OVER AND NEAR THE U.S. WAS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS... SUGGESTING LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS. ALL MODELS AGREE ON MODERATE BLOCKING CENTERED OVER LABRADOR ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS HAS AN EVEN STRONGER RIDGE AND ANOMALY CENTER TODAY IN THAT REGION THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. ALL MODELS AGAIN AGREE ON A STRONG TROUGH AND NEGATIVE ANOAMLY OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND THE YUKON TERRITORIES OF CANADA... EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA... WITH A STRONG RIDGE AND POSITIVE ANOMALY UPSTREAM NEAR THE TIP OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE ECMWF WAS BY FAR THE STRONGEST ON THIS FEATURE. GIVEN THIS MEAN PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS THE MAIN SOURCE FOR UNUSUALLY COLD AIR FOR THE LOWER 48 STATES... WHICH IS NORTHWESTERN CANADA... SHOULD BE CUT OFF DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALL THE TEMPERAUTRE FORECAST TOOLS BASED ON THE VARIOUS MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ANALOGS AGREE THAT THERE SHOULD BE NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR IN THE CONUS... ALTHOUGH SOME HINT AT A SMALL AREA OF BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST... WHIDH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE TRAJECTORIES OF THE PACIFIC AIR ENTERING THAT AREA ORIGINATE OVER THE ALEUTIANS. AGAIN TODAY ALL AGREE THAT MOST OF ALASKA SHOULD BE COLD. IN THE MEAN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA... WITH A NEGATIVE ANOMALY CENTER AND CYCLONIC ACTIVITY CENTERED OVER THE NORTH SEA. THE SPREAD IN THE DAILY ENSEMBLE MAPS BECOMES FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE CONUS DURING MUCH OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... AND TODAY SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE AMPLITUDE AND PHASE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES THAT CAN IMPACT THE PRECIPITATION GREATLY AND EVEN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO A NOTICEABLE EXTENT. MODEL OF THE DAY: ENSEMBLE MEAN DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER AVERAGE 500-HPA ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS DOWNGRADED TO AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5... DUE TO GREATER DISAGREEMENT AMONG PRINCIPAL MODELS... AND INCREASING SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. NEVERTHELESS... TODAYS FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS... AND THE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA THAT ALL MODELS AGREE ON SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY DETERMINANT FOR THE TEMPERATURES. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAYS 00Z GFS RUN CENTERED ON DAY 7... 15 PERCENT OF TODAYS ECMWF SOLUTION CENTERED ON DAY 7... 40 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA MODEL CENTERED ON DAY 8. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT FIELD... MOS TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE.... AND ANALOGS FROM TODAYS MODELS THAT WERE INCLUDED IN THE BLEND. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT FIELD... THE BIAS CORRECTED AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS... AND ANALOGS FROM TODAYS MODELS THAT WERE INCLUDED IN THE BLEND. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 19 - NOV 25 2003 THE MODELS FOR WEEK 2 DIVERGE MORE THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY... THOUGH NOT IN THE SAME WAY. THE 00Z GFS MODEL HAS A MODERATE NEGATIVE ANOMALY CENTLER FIGHT ON THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AS A RESULT OF ITS FORECASTING A CUT OFF LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA JUST AFTER THE END OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. RELATED TO THIS... THE 00Z GFS RUN HAS THE STRONGEST BLOCK IN THE VICINITY OF THE LABRADOR COAST BUT SUGGESTS A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST PACIFIC. THE 12Z GFS IS ALONE IN PREDICTING A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BUT THE 18Z GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN PLACE THE TROUGH AND NEGATVIE ANOMALYU JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE 06Z GFS SOLUTION RESEMBLES THE ECMWF 5-DAY MEAN PREDICTED PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL INDICATED BY THE TOOLS FOR MOST OF ALASKA... ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONGLY AS PREVIOUSLY... AND IF INDEED MORE TROUGHING IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS... TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME LESS WARM IN THE LATTER AREA WHILE THEY MAY START TO MODERATE OVER ALASKA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK 2 FORECAST IS ALSO DOWNGRADED... TO BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GREATER DISAGREEMENT IN THE PRINCIPAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AND VERY HIGH SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION WAS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN DAILY PROGS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 55 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 15 PERCENT OF TODAYS 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 15 PERCENT OF TODAYS ECMWF 5-DAY MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7... AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG...WHICH WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT... AND ANALOGS FROM THE 00Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON BIAS CORRECTED AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS... NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG.... AND THE PERCENTAGE OF CALIBRATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A PREFERRED CATEGORY. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS ALSO GIVEN TO ANALOGS FROM THE 00Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE BIAS CORRECTED AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 00Z GFS WERE SUBJECTIVELY WEIGHTED LESS THAN USUAL AS THIS MODEL AGAIN TODAY APPEARED TO BE SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE RATHER HIGH UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS ALSO INDICATED BY A LACK OF STRONG AGREEING SIGNALS IN THE ANALOG SPEICIFICATIONS... AND LARGE AREAS WHERE NO PREFERRED CATEGORY WAS PREDICTED BY AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF THE CALIBRATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FORECASTER: A. J. WAGNER . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ... THURSDAY NOV 20 2003. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19781121 - 19861114 - 19821109 - 19931110 - 19791107 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19781121 - 19791106 - 19851111 - 19781111 - 19781118 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N N NEVADA A B W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N N WYOMING N B UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N B NEVADA N N W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$