PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 13 - NOV 17 2003 . . . . . . . TODAYS 500-HPA FORECASTS FROM THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST THREE TO FOUR DAYS...BUT THEN DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME READILY APPARENT AS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS CAUSE THE FORECASTS TO DIVERGE. TWO BASIC PATTERNS EMERGE BY DAY 5. THE ECMWF...12Z AND 18Z GFS...AND 12Z UKMET MODELS CREATE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH BY MERGING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW THAT ALL THE MODELS FORECAST TO FORM OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY DAY 2. THESE SOLUTIONS THEN MOVE THIS FULL LATITUDE TROUGH TO LIE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO BY DAY 5. THE LATER RUNS... THOSE BEING THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS... 0Z UKMET...0Z CANADAIAN...AND 0Z NOGAPS...AGREE ON KEEPING TWO SEPARATE SHORT WAVES. THESE SOLUTIONS DROP THE CLOSED LOW INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY DAY 5 WHILE AMPLIFYING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND MOVING IT TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. BY DAY 5. EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE NEXT MAJOR NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER EVEN IN ITS OWN ENSEMBLE BY THE END OF DAY 5. WHILE THE HANDLING OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION BY THE LATER RUNS IS PREFERRED...THIS POTENTIAL FOR INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE STREAMS...WHICH THE MODELS DO NOT GENERALLY HANDLE WELL... ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THIS OUTLOOK. IN THE MEAN FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE...CALLING FOR AN ENHANCED MID-LATITUDE MEAN JET STREAM AND ALMOST ZONAL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS AND THESE DIFFERENCES ARE MOSTLY OVER THE U.S. THESE LIKELY REFLECT... TO AT LEAST SOME EXTENT...THE EARLIER DIVERGENCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. ALL SOLUTIIONS KEEP AT LEAST A WEAK MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THEY ALSO HAVE A FLAT RIDGE SOMEWHERE FROM EAST OF FLORIDA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME SPLIT FLOW IS FORECAST IN ALL THE MEAN PATTERNS BUT THE DETAILS OF WHERE AND HOW MUCH ARE AMONG THE DIFFERENCES. STILL...WITH FAIRLY FAST AND ZONAL FLOW THE DAILY WEATHER WILL TEND TO BE VARIABLE AND NOT TOO EXTREME ON AVERAGE. HOW LONG A ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SUCH A LARGE RANGE OF LONGITUDES BEFORE BUCKLING IS UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE MEAN PATTERN FORECAST BE THE MODELS THE MAIN SOURCE FOR UNUSUALLY COLD AIR FOR THE LOWER 48 STATES...WHICH IS NORTHWESTERN CANADA...SHOULD BE CUT OFF DURING THIS PERIOD. TODAYS SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING TO THE SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG RIDGE OVER SCANDANAVIA...WHICH THEY HAVE BEEN FORCASTING ALL WEEK AND WHICH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THEY HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING MIGHT START TO RETROGRADE DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD...MAY BE BEGINNING ITS RETROGRESSION DURING THIS 6 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC ARE FORECAST TO KEEP THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) INDEX POSITIVE...WHICH TENDS TO OPPOSE RETROGRESSION. THE DAILY GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS HAVE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN AVERAGE SPREAD...BUT THEIR ENSMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...TELECONNECTIONS FAVOR ANOMALY PATTERNS MORE LIKE THOSE OF YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. MODEL OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...2 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5...DUE TO REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET BY BELOW AVERAGE CONTINUITY AND UNCERTAINTY INVOLVING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTIONS. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAYS ECMWF SOLUTION CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAYS 0Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CENTERED ON DAY 7. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT FIELD...MOS TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE....AND ANALOGS FROM TODAYS MODELS WHICH WERE INCLUDED IN THE BLEND. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT FIELD...THE BIAS CORRECTED AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS....AND ANALOGS FROM TODAYS MODELS WHICH WERE INCLUDED IN THE BLEND. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 15 - NOV 21 2003 THE MODELS FOR WEEK 2 ARE IN AT MOST FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. THE SOLUTIONS ARE REASONABLE CONTINUATIONS FROM THE ASSOCIATED 6 TO 10 DAY MEANS...GIVEN THE TIME RANGE AND UNCERTAINTIES THOUGH. MOST FORECASTS CONTINUE WEAK MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE NATION AND A FLAT RIDGE OVER FLORIDA OR THE GULF OF MEXICO. BUT THE ANOMALIY PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES IS NOT STRONG AND IS INDICATIVE OF FAIRLY FAST... ZONAL FLOW. DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION OF THE SCANDINAVIAN BLOCK IS APPARENT IN ALL SOLUTIONS BUT THE 18Z GFS WEAKENS THE BLOCK... PROBABLY TOO MUCH. THE 0Z GFS HAS VIRTUALLY COMPLETED THE RETROGRESSION...AND IN TIME TO HAVE A STRONG BLOCK CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA IN THE WEEK 2 MEAN. THE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON A MEAN TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW OVER ALASKA...NORTHWESTERN CANADA...OR THE ARCTIC OCEAN JUST NORTH OF THE CONTINENT...WITH ASSOCIATED WELL BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. THAT AND STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CANADA WOULD SHUT DOWN THE MAIN SOURCE REGION FOR SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR THE LOWER 48 STATES. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG... WHICH SHOW NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE LOWER 48 STATES AGAIN TODAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED BY THE TOOLS FOR MOST OF ALASKA. CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK 2 FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CENTERED ON DAY 11..AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG...WHICH WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND ANALOGS FROM THE 0Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON BIAS CORRECTED AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS...AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG....WITH SOME CONSIDERATION OF THE ANALOGS FROM THE 0Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: R. MARTIN . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ... THURSDAY NOV 20 2003. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19781119 - 19851121 - 19851110 - 19791106 - 19861108 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19781119 - 19851110 - 19791106 - 19851120 - 19861108 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA B B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A B WYOMING N B UTAH B B ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN A A RHODE ISL N A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK S COAST B B AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA N B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE ISL N N PENN A A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK S COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$