PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 13 - OCT 17 2003 . . . . . . . THE PATTERN INITIALLY IS PREDICTED TO BECOME MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST WEEK AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOURCE REGION OF ARCTIC AIR IN NORTHERN CANADA IS CUT OFF AND MILDER AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SPREADS ACROSS THE U.S. FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE NEXT SHORT WAVE COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS PICK IT UP... THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS LEAVE IT BEHIND... AND THE ECMWF NUDGES IT SLOWLY EASTWARD. VARIOUS GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS APPEAR TO SHOW ALL OF THESE POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. NEVERTHELESS... BY DAY 5 AND THE BEGINNING OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... THE RELEVANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DIG THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST... WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING THE MOST DIGGING. THE MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY MEAN PATTERNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT... WITH NO UNUSUALLY LARGE DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER... THE DAVA CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INDECISIVE PATTERN WITH VERY WEAK OVERALL ANOMALIES. THE OTHER MODELS DIFFERED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BUT AGREED ON A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE EAST... PRESUMABLY RELATED TO THE CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MODEL OF THE DAY: ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 30 PERCENT OF TODAYS 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CENTERED ON DAY 8... AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAYS ECMWF SOLUTION CENTERED ON DAY 7. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND THE NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND ANALOGS TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... 00Z GFS... AND ECMWF. THESE TOOLS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND A REASONABLE CONSENSUS COULD BE MADE. THE MOS TEMPERATURE TOOL WAS AVAILABLE BUT ITS PATTERN DID NOT SEEM TO BE REASONALBE AND WAS DISREGARDED. THE BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE FROM THE 00Z GFS WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON NEURAL NET PRECIPITATION FROM THE BLEND... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS... A CONSENSUS OF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND ANALOGS TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...00Z GFS...AND ECMWF. THE BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE OOZ GFS WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 15 - OCT 21 2003 THE WEEK TWO FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TODAY AS THE 00Z GFS DIGS A STRONG CUT OFF LOW INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE NONE OF THE OTHER AVAILABLE PRINCIPAL MODELS SHOW THIS. HOWEVER... SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL GFS-BASED ENESMBLE MEMBERS ECHO THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN MAINTAINS A VERY WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A WEAK TROUGH IN THE EAST... BUT INSPECTION OF THE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS DISPLAYING THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS SHOWS THAT SOME HAVE A WESTERN TROUGH / EASTERN RIDGE SOLUTION... SOME HAVE A WESTERN RIDGE / EASTERN TROUGH... AND SOME DISPLAY FLAT ZONAL FLOW. THE 12 GFS RUN SHOWED A STILL DIFFERENT PATTERN... A STRONG RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. ANY OF THESE SOLUTIONS APPEARS TO BE EQUALLY LIKELY TO OCCUR... AND THERE IS AN A PRIORI MAXIMUM UNCERAINTY IN THE REGION WHERE A FAST WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES DIFLUENT... AS IT DOES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE DAVA AGAIN HAD A VERY WEAK ANOMALY PATTERN THAT DOES NOT GIVE MUCH OF A USEFUL SIGNAL EVEN IF IT IS CORRECT. CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK 2 FORECAST IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE... 1 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT OF TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 15 PERCENT OF THE 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 15 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF 5-DAY MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7... AND 20 PERCENT OF THE 00Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY7. THE RESULTING PATTERN HAS HEIGHTS SLIGHLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO DEFINED ANOMALY CENTERS OVER THE WEST... AND A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH OVER THE EAST. BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY HEIGHT AND ANOMALY PROGS HAVE CONSIDERABLE BLOCKING AT HIGH LATITUDES OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THE ATLATNIC. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND THE NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG... AND ANALOGS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z 06Z AND 18Z GFS. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS AND A CONSENSUS OF THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND WHATEVER WEAK CONSENSUS COULD BE OBTAINED FROM ANALOGS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z... 06Z... 12Z AND 18Z GFS RUNS. FORECASTER: A. J. WAGNER . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED THURSDAY OCT 16 2003. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19881004 - 19641009 - 19950923 - 19820919 - 19760922 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19641009 - 19881004 - 19820919 - 19520922 - 19760921 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA N N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N N WYOMING N B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN N A INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B B NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$