PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 5 - OCT 9 2003 . . . . . . . THE LATEST MAJOR OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS RUNS...THE ECMWF...THE 12Z AND 0Z UKMET...AND THE CANADIAN ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST FIVE DAYS ON A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND NEARBY OCEANIC AREAS. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE WESTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A VERY DEEP TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BY DAY 5 THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS THAT THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT...WITH INCREASING UNDERCUTTING FLOW OVER THE U.S. WHILE THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER CANADA. FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD TODAYS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THEIR FORECASTED MEAN 500 HPA PATTERNS WHICH WOULD AFFECT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE U.S. ...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN STATES. THE MODELS ALL CALL FOR AN ENHANCED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC...AND ALL MODELS FORECAST A CONTINUATION OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKED FLOW FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF HAS A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND BROAD...SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC...FLOW OVER MOST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE ECMWF ALSO IS PHASED SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY THAN THE GFS-BASED PATTERNS...WITH A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE FEATURES OVER CANADA. THIS ALLOWS THE ECMWF TO HAVE A RIDGE ALONG THE U.S. ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE GFS-BASED 500-HPA FIELDS DOMINATE THE EASTERN STATES WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE MEAN TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. TELECONNECTIONS DO NOT FAVOR ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION. TELECONNECTIONS FROM ANOMALY CENTERS IN THE PACIFIC SUGGEST THAT THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE WAVY OVER THE MID-LATITUDES...WITH SOME PHASE OF THE PNA PATTERN OVER THE U.S. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH PROJECTS ONTO THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE PNA. HOWEVER TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALIES AT HIGHER LATITUDES FAVOR A FLATTER MID-LATITUDE FLOW. ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW THAT THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER IN ITS ENSEMBLE AT DAY 6 WHILE THE 0Z GFS IS ALSO SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER IN ITS ENSEMBLE AT DAY 6. THE DAILY GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH PERHAPS A BIT LESS SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAN USUAL. MODEL OF THE DAY: GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY...3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF THE TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF THE DAVA... AND 10 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION CENTERED ON DAY 7. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND THE NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD...MOS FORECASTS...AND ANALOGS TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 0Z GFS. THESE TOOLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON NEURAL NET PRECIPITATION FROM THE BLEND...CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS...AND ANALOGS TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 0Z GFS. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 7 - OCT 13 2003 THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 8 TO 14 DAY 500-HPA CIRCULATION FORECAST OVER THE CONUS IN THE LATEST GFS RUNS. THE 0Z AND 12Z RUNS HAVE POSITIVE ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE THE 18Z GFS HAS A SUBSTANTIALLY OPPOSITE PHASE. THE 6Z GFS HAS STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT LAKES BUT PUTS POSITIVE ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING...ESPECIALLY OVER CANADA...WHICH TELECONNECTIONS SUGGEST WILL CORRESPOND TO GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE CONUS. CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK 2 FORECAST IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE...1 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 80 PERCENT OF TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND THE NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG...AND ANALOGS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG...CALIBRATERD PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS MODEL RUN...AND ON ANALOGS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: R. MARTIN . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED THURSDAY OCT 16 2003. 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON B N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N A RHODE IS N N PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$