PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 16 - SEP 20 2003 . . . . . . . AT DAY 1... ALL MODELS DEPICT A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESIDING IN THE NW AND RIDGING IN THE EAST. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS MOVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION AND INTO THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 5. THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT PLACES A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAY 5. THE CMC... UKMET... AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS ARE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FAVORS A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE 1 TO 5 DAY PERIOD. THE SPREAD AMONG GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS LOWER IN THE EAST THAN IN PAST DAYS INDICATING MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FLOW PATTERN FOR THAT PART OF THE NATION. DURING THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD... THE TREND IN SUCCESSIVE GFS RUNS IS TO STRENGTHEN A RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND TO WEAKEN A TROUGH IN THE CENTER OF THE NATION AND MOVE IT FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SUCCESSIVE GFS RUNS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING WEAK RIDGING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A STRONG LOW NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ALASKA... YUKON... AND THE ARCTIC OCEAN. AS WAS THE CASE MONDAY ... THE ECMWF IS FAIRLY INCONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN. TODAYS ECMWF PRODUCES A STONG CUT-OFF LOW IN THE MIDWEST WHICH WAS ABSENT FROM YESTERDAYS ECMWF SOLUTION. ANALOG 500 HPA ANOMALY CORRELATIONS ARE ALSO LOWER FOR THE ECMWF THAN BOTH THE 0Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... 0.86... 0.92... AND... 0.91... RESPECTIVELY. THIS INDICATES THAT THE TODAYS ECMWF SOLUTION IS LESS SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN SEEN IN NATURE THAN THE RESPECTIVE 0Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE LONG TERM AVERAGE 500 HPA ANOMALY CORRELATIONS OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE ECMWF ARE LOWER AS WELL AT 0.51 AS COMPARED TO 0.57 FOR THE 0Z GFS AND 0.58 FOR THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ECMWF MODEL WAS GIVEN LOW WEIGHT TODAY AT 20 PERCENT FOR TODAYS BLEND... WITH ONLY 10 PERCENT GIVEN TO TODAYS SOLUTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE STONG CUT-OFF LOW THIS SOLUTION PRODUCES IN THE GREAT LAKES STATES. HURRICANE ISABEL HAS A POTENTIAL TO INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE EAST BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT IMPACT ... IF ANY... THIS STORM MAY HAVE. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS DANGEROUS STORM. MODEL OF THE DAY: 0Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY ... 3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF TODAYS 00Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8... 40 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 10 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION CENTERED ON DAY 7... AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAYS ECMWF SOLUTION CENTERED ON DAY 7. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS... THE CPC 0Z GFS BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES... THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES OFF THE 0Z GFS... MOS TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... AND ANALOGS TO THE 500 HPA BLENDED HEIGHT FIELDS. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC 0Z GFS CALIBRATED AND BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION... THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AND PERCENTAGES... AND ANALOGS OFF THE 500 HPA BLENDED HEIGHT FIELDS. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 18 - SEP 24 2003 FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD... SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE GFS DEAMPLIFY A TROUGH IN THE CENTER OF THE NATION. THE 12Z... 18Z... 0Z... AND 6Z GFS RUNS ALL HAVE RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST. IN THE WEST... THE TREND IN THE GFS IS TO BUILD A RIDGE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL WEEK... THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS VERY HIGH ACCROSS THE ENTIRE NATION INDICATING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FLOW PATTERN. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS HAS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN THE MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OVER THE CONUS AT THE 5820 METER LEVEL. DUE TO THE LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ... HIGH WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TODAY. HIGHER WEIGHTS WERE ALSO PLACED ON THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS TO REFLECT THE GFS MODEL TREND OF DEAMPLIFYING THE TROUGH IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE D+8 ECMWF WAS COMPLETELY REMOVED TODAY FOR TWO REASONS. FIRSTLY... TODAYS ECMWF SOLUTION IS VERY INCONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN IN THE EAST. SECONDLY... ANOMALY CORRELATIONS WITH THE ECMWF HAS TAKEN A SHARP DOWNTURN DURING THE LAST WEEK. THE DAVA IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TODAY. ANALOG ANOMALY CORRELATIONS FOR BOTH THE 0Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ABOVE 0.9 WHICH IS VERY GOOD FOR A WEEK 2 FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK 2 FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO LARGE SPREAD AMONG D+11 GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 55 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 40 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11... AND 5 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOGS OFF THE VARIOUS MODELS AND THE OFFICIAL 500 HPA BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC 0Z GFS BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES... AND THE CDC 0Z GFS CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AND PERCENTAGES... 0Z GFS CALIBRATED AND BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION... AND ANALOGS OFF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS AND THE 500 HPA BLENDED HEIGHT FIELDS. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED THURSDAY SEP 18 2003. 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B A NEVADA N B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A A IOWA N N MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B N NEVADA N B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N N UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$