PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 10 - SEP 14 2003 . . . . . . . MODEL RUNS ARE TODAY AGAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION THROUGH DAY 5 WITH JUST TYPICAL DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS. MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE WITH THIS PATTERN CONSISTING OF A WEAKENING PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE mISSISSIPPI vALLEY TO THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ONLY A VERY WEAK TROUGH REMNANT IS LEFT BEHIND OVER THE GULF STATES REGION BY SOME MODELS. SHORT- AND MEDIUM-RANGE INTEGRATIONS FROM NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE MODELS INDICATE THAT HURRICANE FABIAN WILL RECURVE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE U.S. MAINLAND BEFORE THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SO IT WILL NOT BE A FACTOR IN THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. OTHER TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE BEING WATCHED BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROJECT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND PATHS WITH MUCH RELIABILITY. THE 6 TO 10 DAY 500-HPA MEAN FORECASTS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS ... THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER ON THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES BUT WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES ON SOME OF THE SMALLER SCALE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES... ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS IS THAT BOTH THE RIDGE AND POSITIVE ANOMALY OVER CANADA AND THE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC ARE PREDICTED NOTICEABLY FARTHER EAST TODAY... AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THE DAVA CONTINUES TO PROJECT VERY LITTLE TROUGH OR LOWER HEIGHTS FARTHER INLAND THAN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... BUT A FEW OF THE OTHER MODELS AGREE. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS STILL MUCH LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN ANY OF THE RECENT INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS. THE OVERALL PATTERN SEEMS TO BE WELL DETERMINED... WITH CONSISTENT SLOW CHANGES ON SUCCESSIVE DAYS RUNS. THE MOST RADICAL CHANGE SHOWN BY SOME MODELS IS THE RAPID DEVELPMENT AND SOUTHWARD PLUNGE OF AN INTENSE ARCTIC LOW TOWARDS NORTHWEST ALASKA. THE GENERAL PROGRESSION OF MEAN FEATURES THAT CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED IS CONSIDERED TO BE REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE WESTERLIES ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE PACIFIC BOTH IN A CLIMATOLOGICAL AND IN AN ANOMALOUS SENSE... AND ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER NORTH AMERICA. SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALREADY BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE IN THE VICINITY OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EVEN BEFORE THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES EJECTED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC MEAN TROUGH... WHICH IS MORE OF A PROBLEM FOR DAILY FORECASTS THAN FOR PREDICTIONS OF MEAN PATTERNS. THERE ARE ALSO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTENSE ARCTIC LOW WHICH CONTINUE AND GROW WITH TIME AS OTHER PACIFIC SYSTEMS APPROACH ALASKA. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER THAT MOST MODELS NOW PLACE BETWEEN HUDSON BAY AND LABRADOR GENERALLY PREFER THE STRONG TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST BUT WOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO BE AS FAR EAST AS THE ROCKIES... ALSO HINTING AT A WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MODEL FORECASTS. MODEL OF THE DAY: ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS RATED AS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT... LOGICAL DAY-TO-DAY CONSISTENCY AND REASONABLE OVERALL TELECONNECTIVITY. THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE IN THE ALASKA REION HOWEVER DUE TO BOTH LARGER CHANGES AND GREATER SPREAD. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS 00Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8... 40 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 30 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION CENTERED ON DAY 7... AND 10 PERCENT OF THE DAVA MODEL CENTERED ON DAY 8. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND AND ANALOGS ON THE LATEST SET OF MODEL PROGS... WHICH WERE IN MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... ANALOGS ON THE LATEST SET OF MODEL HEIGHT PROGS... BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS RUNS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 12 - SEP 18 2003 DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST OVERALL PATTERNS ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD... BUT WITH INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG THEM. ALL SHOWED FURTHER PROGRESSION OF THE MEAN FEATURES... NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE EARLY FALL WITH INCREASING MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS WERE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE... EXPECIALLY THE 06Z GFS WHICH MOVED THE POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER OFF THE LABRADOR COAST. THE DAVA WAS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE... LEAVING THE ANOMALY CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN SHORE OF HUDSON BAY. TODAY MOST MODELS PLACE A STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES... WHILE MORE ARE BUILDING A RIDGE EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWEST THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK 2 FORECAST IS RATED AS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS 5-DAY MEAN ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7... 40 PERCENT OF TODAYS 00Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11... AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS 00Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 7. MORE WEIGHT WAS PUT ON THE INDIVIDUAL 00Z GFS MODEL BECAUSE IT WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS AVAILABLE TO THE BLEND FOR THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG... AND TRENDS SO FAR THIS WEEK SUGGEST THAT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS NOT BEEN PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND AND ANALOGS ON THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOGS ON THE VARIOUS MODELS... THE BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 00Z RUN AND FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 00Z GFS RUN. FORECASTER: A. J. WAGNER . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED THURSDAY SEP 18 2003. 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N N WYOMING B B UTAH B B ARIZONA N B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA N B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$ 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N N WYOMING B B UTAH B B ARIZONA N B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA N B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$