PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2003 SEE 6-10 DAY SERVICE CHANGE PROPOSAL AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/610DAY/ SERVICE_CHANGE.HTML 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 26 - 30 2003 . . . . . . . THE MAJOR OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS...ECMWF...0Z AND 12Z UKMET...AND 0Z CANADIAN...ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE- SCALE 500-HPA PATTERN FOR THE FIRST 4 DAYS...BUT BY DAY 5 SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES ARE BECOMING NOTICEABLE. BY DAY 4 ALL 500-HPA SOLUTIONS HAVE A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERING MOST OF THE CONUS TO THE TOP OF A RIDGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND A TROUGH JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. BY DAY 5 ONE GROUP OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND A NUMBER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ARE SLOWER TO MOVE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES EASTWARD COMPARED TO THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS RUNS AND SOME OF THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THE 5-DAY 500-HPA MEANS FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN... INDICATING THAT THE ECMWF HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE FASTER DAY 5 SOLUTIONS ON AVERAGE. THE MEAN HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST BY GFS RUNS AND THE ECMWF SHOW WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ADJACENT EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z AND 18Z GFS SOLUTIONS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THESE ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE DAVA IS ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND ECMWF. AGAIN TODAY THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW QUITE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH PROGRESSING...OR IN SOME SOLUTIONS NOT PROGRESSING VERY QUICKLY...ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AGAIN TODAY THE 0Z GFS IS AT THE EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PRACTICALLY ALL THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND BECOMES COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH SOME OF THE MEMBERS LATER IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DAILY ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT OVER THE U.S. AND CALL FOR A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES...A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON DAY 6 WITH A DEAMPLIFICATION OD THE PATTERN TO ALMOST ZONAL BY DAY 10...ALTHOUGH WITH A HINT OF A TROUGH CONTINUING ALONG THE WEST COAST. TELECONNECTIONS WITH THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SHOW THE SENSITIVITY OFTEN SEEN WITH ANOMALIES IN THAT REGION. IF THE POSITIVE ANOMALY IS CENTERED AT 50N/140W THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FAVORED...WHILE A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY NEAR 50N/130W WOULD FAVOR MOVING THE DOWNSTREAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. BASED ON THIS THE ECMWF... GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND DAVA TELECONNECT WELL WHILE THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS TELECONNECT LESS WELL. BUT THIS STILL DOES NOT RESOLVE THE SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTER ECMWF AND THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. BASED ON RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THE NOD GOES TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TODAY. MODELS OF THE DAY: GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS RATED AS AVERAGE TODAY...3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY IS BASED ON 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...40 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8... 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 5... AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8. THE RESULTING PATTERN TELECONNECTS WELL. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICA- TIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG AND COMPOSITE ANALOGS TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DAVA. MOS WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG...CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS RUN...ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS RUNS...AND COMPOSITE ANALOGS TO PATTERNS FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DAVA. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 28 - JUL 4 2003 FOR WEEK 2 THE MODEL MEAN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS OVER THE PHASE OF THE PATTERN. THE 0Z...6Z...AND 18Z GFS SOLUTIONS RETROGRADE THE PATTERN FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE 6-10 DAY MEANS WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DAVA ARE REASONABLY AND MODERATELY PROGRESSIVE CONTINUATIONS OF THEIR 6-10 DAY MEANS. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK 2 FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE...2 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAYS ECWMF 5-DAY MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 25 PERCENT OF THE DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICA- TIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG...AND COMPOSITE ANALOGS TO THE CIRCULATION PATTERNS PREDICTED BY GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DAVA. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG...CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS RUN...COMPOSITE ANALOGS TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DAVA... AND ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE INDIVIDUAL GFS RUNS. FORECASTER: R. MARTIN . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE... PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE 1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500-HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED THURSDAY JUN 19 2003. 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA N B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N N NEVADA N B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA N B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B A IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$