PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST TUES MAR 25 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 31 - APR 4 2003 . . . . . . . THE MAIN MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5 AND FORECAST A HIGH AMPLITUDE BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA BY THE START OF THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD...WITH A DEEP 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES...A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS... AND A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN CANADA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO SHOW UP BY DAY 5 WHICH BECOME MORE APPARENT IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY MEANS. THE MODEL MEAN FORECASTS REMAIN IN GENERALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT DURING THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD...AND CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IS GOOD. ALL SOLUTIONS DEPICT AN AREA OF POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALEUTIANS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THIS AREA OF POSITIVE ANOMALIES OVER THE BASE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE THE GFS RUNS HAVE IT OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS A LARGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED AREA OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THAN MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS. THE DAVA IS MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT THE DAVA HAS BEEN NOTICEABLY LESS SKILLFUL ON THE AVERAGE THAN THE OTHER MODELS OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE SOLUTIONS ON HOW BIG AN AREA OF NEGATIVE ANOMALIES TO FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WESTERN CANADA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. ...WITH THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS HAVING MORE AND THE ECMWF...12Z...AND 18Z GFS HAVING LESS. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALEUTIANS SUPPORT A SOLUTION MORE LIKE THE 0Z GFS AND NOT SO MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF AND SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. THE DAILY GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE RUNS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT... ALTHOUGH AS USUAL THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE RUNS ESPECIALLY BY DAY 10. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS IS MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THAN MOST RUNS...BUT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF RUNS THAT APPROACH IT IN AMPLITUDE ...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THESE SOLUTIONS ARE PHASED DIFFERENTLY THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. STILL...THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS IS GENRALLY PHASED LIKE THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. BY DAY 10 THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS DEEPER TROUGHS OFF THE EAST AND WEST COASTS THAN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH HAS JUST GENERALLY BROAD AND SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN AREAS. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD USES 15 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF MODEL CENTERED ON DAY 7...60 PERCENT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL OF THE DAY: GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATED AS ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY...3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE 500-HPA BLEND FIELD...MOS FORECASTS BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLES...AND TEMPERATURES BASED ON ANALOGS FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. AGREEMENT AMONG THESE TOOLS WAS NOT AS GOOD AS IT HAS BEEN SOMETIMES...WITH THE KLEIN LOOKING TOO COLD IN SOME PLACES WHILE THE NEURAL NET HAD NEAR NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE EAST...WHICH LOOKS TOO WARM GIVEN THE HEIGHT PROG. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG...CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS RUN...AND PRECIPITATION FROM THE BEST ANALOGS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS HAVE WET OVER MOST OF THE EAST COAST...WHICH DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT EXITING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE TOOLS BASED ON THE MEAN HEIGHTS DO NOT SHOW THIS. THUS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BE CRITICAL AND ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 2 - 8 2003 FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN UNDERGOES A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE FROM THAT DEPICTED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IF ONE BELIEVES THE 0Z...6Z..AND 18Z GFS RUNS. THESE SOLUTIONS LOWER HEIGHTS SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEVELOP A STRONG TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z GFS RUN KEEP A MOSTLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BAND OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MOST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES...WITH THE 12Z GFS HAVING THE LARGEST AND STRONGEST VERSION OF THIS FEATURE. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER THAT ALL THE MODELS HAVE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS DO NOT SUPPORT THE COMPLETE CRASHING OF HEIGHTS IN THE WEST THAT THE 0Z...6Z..AND 18Z GFS RUNS SHOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK 2 FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE...2 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD USES 60 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON A MIX OF THE NEURAL NETWORK AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL D+11 HEIGHT PROG...AND THE TEMPERATURES FROM ANALOGS ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON NEURAL NET FORECASTS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG...CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z RUN OF THE GFS...AND PRECIPITATION FROM ANALOGS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: R. MARTIN . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE... PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE 1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS. . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:--------------------------------------------- AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500 HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500 HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500 HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500 HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST - ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500 HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500 HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500 HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS) FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST TO EAST MOTION. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500 HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500 HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500 HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500 HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED THURSDAY APRIL 17 2003. 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA A N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA N N MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B N RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B A NEVADA N A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE B B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$