PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 3 PM EST MON FEB 10 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 16 - FEB 20 2003 . . . . . . . . MODEL COMPARISONS: MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HUDSON BAY POLAR VORTEX GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD DURING DAYS 2-9 TO SOUTH OF GREENLAND. MODELS AND TELECONNECIONS WITH ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE NEAR 55N AND 45W INDICATE THAT THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES EXCEPT IN NEW ENGLAND. THE PNA PATTERN ALSO BREAKS DOWN AS THE WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AND PACIFIC IMPULSES TRACK EASTWARD. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS HAS A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON DAY 9... BUT THIS FEATURE IS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE RELATIVE TO SUBSEQUENT GFS RUNS AND OTHER MODELS. THE BIG DISPARITY AMONG MODELS RELATES TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT LIES INITIALLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE 12Z GFS FOR FEB 10 DOES AWAY WITH THE CUTOFF... BUT BRINGS IN A STRONG ENOUGH TROUGH TO RESULT IN AMPLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST. DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD A COUPLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AREAS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES... BUT BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS MILDER WEATHER TO LARGE PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. WAVES ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSLATE TO ABOVE-NORMAL WETNESS FOR THE SOUTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING NORMAL TO ABOVE-NORMAL RAIN AND SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PACIFIC STATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TODAY...3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL 500 HPA HEIGHT FORECAST FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD USES 15 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF MODEL CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...60 PERCENT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... AND 15 PERCENT OF THE DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL OF THE DAY: DAVA. THIS MODEL WAS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS AND FIRST GUESS FIELDS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA PROG...MOS ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND THE CALIBRATED 850-HPA TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE. SNOW COVER IN THE NORTHEAST WAS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT...RESULTING IN A SLANT TOWARD LOWER TEMPERATURES THERE. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATION FROM THE 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND...THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CALIBRATED ANOMALIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE. . . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 24 2003 MODEL COMPARISONS: DURING WEEK 2 THE MEAN PATTERN IS RATHER ZONAL ACROSS THE LOWER 48... WITH HEIGHTS SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST AND BELOW NORMAL NEAR THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN TRANSITION... SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MODELS AGREE ON THE BIG PICTURE... BUT DAY TO DAY WEATHER CHANGES ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK 2 FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE...2 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD USES 70 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11 AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NETWORK...KLEIN AND FIRST GUESS SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICAL 500-HPA BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD...AND THE BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURE FIELD FROM THE ENSEMBLE GFS. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE 500-HPA BLEND AND CALIBRATED ANOMALIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE ANALOGS. FORECASTER: D. LE COMTE . . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPI- TATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP- ITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE ...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE 1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS. . . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:------------------------------------------------------ AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID- TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID-LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. AVN - THE RUN OF THE MRF MODEL INITIATED AT 12 UTC (AS OF 07/2002 THE NAME FOR ALL RUNS OF THE NCEP GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL). BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500 HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500 HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500 HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500 HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS THE ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS FORECASTS. 500 HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500 HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500 HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MRF - MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODEL (AS OF 07/2002 RENAMED THE AVN) MRF ENSEMBLE - A SET OF MRF (AVN) FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CUR- RENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE MRF (AVN) ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE MRF (AVN) ENSEMBLE MEAN. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLA- TION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500 HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500 HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH- ERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNEC- TIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500 HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500 HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 20 2003. 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N B WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N A COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA N B OHIO B B KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B B RHODE IS B N PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. NNNN NNNN