PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC 3 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2002 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 28 - SEP 1 2002 . . . . . . . . MODEL COMPARISONS: ALL MODELS FORECASTING WEAK 500 MB FLOW ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AMERICA AND ARE QUITE SIMILAR IN DEPICTING A BROAD AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN EASTWARD ACROSS MOST CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN FACT... ALL MODELS FORECAST ANOMALY IN MAXIMA IN THREE CENTERS... ONE OFF THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA COAST... ONE IN FAR NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA... AND ONE IN EASTERN CANADA OR THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE DAVA AND ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE OTHERS WITH ALL THREE CENTERS. SINCE THIS IS A TYPICAL BIAS OF BOTH MODELS... WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE STRONGER OPERATIONAL MRF AND EUROPEAN DEPICTIONS. ALSO... THE OPERATIONAL MRF DEPICTS THE EAST CANADIAN POSITIVE ANOMALY FARTHER TO THE EAST... AND RECENT OPERATIONAL MRF BIASES HAVE BEEN TO DEPICT 500 MB HEIGHTS TOO LOW IN EASTERN CANADA... SO THE ECMWF POSITIONING AND STRENGTH ARE PREFERRED. THE ECMWF IS ALSO PREFERRED IN THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN... WHERE IT DEPICTS A STRONGER POSITIVE ANOMALY FAR- THER NORTHWEST THAN THE OPERATIONAL MRF... FOR THE SAME REASON. ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES... THE OPERATIONAL MRF AND ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT A WEAK MEAN NEGATIVE ANOMALY IN ALMOST EXACTLY THE SAME SPOT IN WESTERN KENTUCKY WHILE THE DAVA AND ECMWF PUT THE WEAK ANOMALY FARTHER TO THE WEST... SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION WAS FAVORED WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE BIAS-CORRECTED OPERATTIONAL MRF OUTPUT INDICATED THAT THE NEGATIVE ANOMALY CENTER MIGHT BE EVEN FARTHER TO THE EAST AND WEAKER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MRF AND ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTIONS. HOWEVER... THE ECMWF AND DAVA WERE BOTH CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE SOME WEAK TELECONNECTION SUP- PORT FOR THEIR SOLUTIONS... SO THEY ARE NOT DISCOUNTED ENTIRELY. FINALLY... THE DAVA AND ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW LOWER HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA TODAY... MORE IN LINE WITH YESTERDAYS ECMWF BUT LESS AMPLIFIED... WHILE THE OPERATIONAL MRF AND TODAYS ECMWF BOTH EXTEND SOME POSITIVE ANOMALIES FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC RIDGE TO EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. SINCE WE ARE LEANING TOWARD ECMWF AND OPERATIONAL MRF SOLUTIONS IN THIS REGION... THEIR SOLUTIONS ARE FAVORED. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE WEAK FLOW PATTERN IN THE UNITED STATES SHOULD KEEP FEATURES QUASI-STATIONARY AND PERHAPS A BIT RETROGRESSIVE... THUS THE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN UNITED STATES MAY BRING A PRO- LONGED OPPORTUNITY FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO SOME OF THE DROUGHT-PLAGUED AREAS IN THE EAST. HOWEVER... GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS WEAK AND THEREFORE THAT SLIGHT CHANGES COULD HAVE SUBSTANTIAL IMPLICATIONS IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER... CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS RATED AS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD USES 45 PERCENT OF TODAYS ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8... 35 PERCENT OF THE OPERATIONAL MRF CENTERED ON DAY 8... AND 20 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL OF THE DAY: ECMWF THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED MAINLY ON KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE ECMWF... THE DISTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL MRF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... BIAS-CORRECTED OPERATIONAL MRF 850 MB TEMPERATURES... AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF HISTORIC ANALOGS. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE INDIVIDUAL MRF EN- SEMBLE MEMBERS... CALIBRATED AND BIAS-CORRECTED OPERATIONAL MRF OUTPUT ADJUSTED TOWARD THE EXPECTED PATTERN... AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF HISTORIC ANALOGS. . . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 30 - SEP 5 2002 THE OPERATIONAL MRF RUN FOR THE WEEK TWO PERIOD AMPLIFIES THE NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE AND PUSHES IT TO THE NORTHWEST... RESULTING IN A 175 DAM 500 MB ANOMALY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. FARTHER EAST... THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND EASTERN CANADA DEAMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFT JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THIS ALL SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD SLOW MOVEMENT AND MEAN-FEATURE RETROGRESSION... BUT RECENT OP- ERATIONAL MRF BIASES INDICATE THAT ITS NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE MAY BE CENTERED TOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST... AND LIKELY WILL EXTEND FARTHER EAST... WITH POSITIVE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES REACHING BACK TO THE WEST U.S. COAST. ALSO... THE OP- ERATIONAL MRF LIKELY DEPICTING THE EAST-CANADA POSITIVE ANOMALY TOO FAR TO THE EAST BASED ON RECENT BIASES. FARTHER SOUTH... THE OPERATIONAL MRF KEEPS THE WEAK NEGATIVE ANOMALY CENTER IN WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS PERIOD WHILE WEAKENING IT SLIGHTLY... AND EXTENDS SOME WEAK NEGATIVE ANOMALIES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CANADIAN PRARIES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEST-COAST POSITIVE ANOMALIES... AND THAT THE BIAS-CORRECTED POSITION FOR THE EASTERN LOW WOULD BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHEAST... WE FEEL THIS PATTERN MAY END UP VERIFYING SLIGHT- LY EAST OF THE OPERATIONAL MRF SOLUTION... BUT FOR THE SAME REASONS EXPRESSED IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY DISCUSSION... CONFIDENCE IN THE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER IS LOW. TO MAKE THESE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE OFFICIAL BLEND... SOME OF THE 5-DAY MEAN ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8 AND THE 7-DAY MEAN OPERATIONAL MRF CENTERED ON DAY 7 WERE IN- CORPORATED. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DAVA BOTH SHOW VERY WEAK ANOMALY FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE... WITH WHAT FEATURES REMAIN BEING IN POSITIONS SIMILAR TO THEIR RESPECTIVE 6 TO 10 DAY RUNS. THIS MERELY SERVES TO UNDERSCORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY... AND IN FACT SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE 8 TO 14 DAY FORECAST TO DAMPEN THE OPERATIONAL MRF AMOALIES SLIGHTLY. CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS SOLUTION IS BELOW AVERAGE... EVEN FOR WEEK 2... RATED 2 ON A SCALE OF 1-5. THE BLENDED 500-MB HEIGHT PATTERN USES 50 PERCENT OF TODAYS MRF CENTERED ON DAY 11... 30 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8... 10 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... AND 10 PERCENT OF THE MRF CENTERED ON DAY 7. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS A CONSENSUS OF THE KLEIN TEMPERATURE SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG... ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE DISTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND BIAS-CORRECTED OPERATIONAL MRF 850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS A CONSENSUS OF THE CALIBRATED AND BIAS-CORRECTED MRF OUTPUT... ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS FOR THE OFFICIAL BLEND FORECASTER: R. TINKER . . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPI- TATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP- ITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE ...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE 1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS. . . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:------------------------------------------------------ AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AVN - THE RUN OF THE MRF MODEL INITIATED AT 12 UTC (AS OF 07/2002 THE NAME FOR ALL RUNS OF THE NCEP GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL). BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500 HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500 HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500 HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500 HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. 500 HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500 HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500 HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MRF - MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODEL (AS OF 07/2002 RENAMED THE AVN) MRF ENSEMBLE - A SET OF MRF (AVN) FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CUR- RENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE MRF (AVN) ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE MRF (AVN) ENSEMBLE MEAN. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLA- TION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500 HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500 HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH- ERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNEC- TIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500 HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500 HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 19 2002. 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A A IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA N A OHIO N N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A N CONN N N RHODE IS A N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B B IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA B A OHIO N A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 - ON AFOS AS NFDPMDMRD. NNNN NNNN