PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC 3 PM EDT TUES JUN 4 2002 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 10 - 14 2002 . . . . . . . . MODEL COMPARISONS: TODAYS DAILY 500 HPA MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST FOUR DAYS BUT BY DAY 5 THE MRF IS A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF...OZ AND 12Z UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE MRF IS ALSO ONE OF THE LEAST AMPLIFIED AND MOST PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS IN ITS ENSEMBLE AT DAY 6 WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE SIMILAR TO ITS FELLOW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH ARE A BIT SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN MOST OF THE MRF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THE 6 TO 10 DAY 500 HPA MEANS END UP HAVING DIFFERENT BASIC PATTERNS...WITH THE MRF AND MRF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVING A NEGATIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGHS FROM MINNESOTA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A BROAD MEAN TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN TWO THRIDS OF THE NATION. TODAYS ECMWF IS ALSO VERY AMPLIFIED OVER THE PACIFIC WHICH IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION. THE DAVA IS RATHER ZONAL AS IS OFTEN THE CASE. TELECONNECTIONS DO NOT STRONGLY FAVOR ANY SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE MRF AND ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE PROBABLY TELECONNECTED THE BEST. CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS RATED AS BELOW AVERAGE...2 ON A 1-5 SCALE. THE OFFICIAL 500 HPA HEIGHT FORECAST FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD USES 70 PERCENT OF TODAYS MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS MRF MODEL CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL OF THE DAY: MRF ENSEMBLE THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A CONSENSUS OF THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG...AND THE TEMPERATURE ANALOGS MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON NEURAL NET PRECIPITATION FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG AND THE ACCUMULATED MRF MODEL PRECIPITATION...WHICH AGREE FAIRLY WELL...WITH SOME CONSIDERATION OF THE PRECIPITATION ANALOGS FROM THE MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE BIAS CORRECTED MRF ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION. . . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 12 - 18 2002 TODAYS WEEK 2 MRF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHILE THE MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND IS BASICALLY LIKE ITS 6-10 DAY PATTERN WITH SOME EASTWARED PROGRESSION AND WEAKENING OF ANOMALIES. AGAIN THE DAVA HAS BROAD AREAS OF WEAK ANOMALIES OVER THE U.S. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...RATED 2 ON A SCALE OF 1-5. THE BLENDED 500 HPA HEIGHT PATTERN USES 70 PERCENT OF TODAYS MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAYS MRF MODEL CENTERED ON DAY 11. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS BASED MAINLY ON A CONSENSUS OF THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG...WITH SOME CONSIDERATION OF THE TEMPERATURE ANALOGS FROM MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ACCUMULATED MRF MODEL PRECIPITATION...AND THE BIAS CORRECTED MRF ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION...THE NEURAL NET PRECIPITATION FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG...AND THE PRECIPITATION ANALOGS FROM THE MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: R. MARTIN . . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE 1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS. . . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:------------------------------------------------------ ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. AVN - THE RUN OF THE MRF MODEL INITIATED AT 12 UTC. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500 HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500 HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500 HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500 HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. 500 HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500 HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500 HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACCE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MRF - MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODEL. MRF ENSEMBLE - A SET OF MRF FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE MRF ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLA- TION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EAST- WARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500 HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500 HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500 HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500 HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON THURSDAY JUNE 13 2002. 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE ISL A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N B AK S COAST N B AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA N B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE ISL N A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A N AK S COAST A N AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 - ON AFOS AS NFDPMDMRD. NNNN NNNN