PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC 3 PM EDT FRI MAY 3 2002 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 9 - 13 2002 . . . . . . . . MODEL COMPARISONS: MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT AS MUCH TODAY AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. ALL MAINTAIN A STRONG NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE... BELOW NORMAL 500 MB HIEGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA WITH A MORE-SEPARATED MEAN TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO ANOTHER NEG- ATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST U.S. COAST... AND A STRONG MEAN RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S. THAT IS SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY. THE OPERATIONAL MRF IS OUT OF STEP WITH THE OTHER MODELS... AND WITH ITS OWN PREVIOUS RUNS... IN MORE QUICKLY AND PRONOUNCEDLY CRASHING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE EASTERN MEAN RIDGE AND DEPICTING BELOW-NORMAL MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. WE FAVOR A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE OTHER MODELS THAT EXTENDS THE MEAN RIDGE FARTHER TO THE NORTH... BUT DO NOT DISCOUNT THE OPERATIONAL MRF ENTIRELY GIVEN RECENT TENDENCIES FOR THE MODELS TO OVER-FORECAST 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THIS REGION. IN ADDITION... WE CONTINUE TO THINK THAT MOST OF THE MODELS ARE UNDER-FORECASTING 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AS HAS BEEN THEIR BIAS RECENTLY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS OWN AND OTHER MODELS PREVIOUS RUNS. ALSO THE ECMWF TODAY TENDS TO DIFFER FROM THE OPERATIONAL MRF AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN BY MOVING AWAY FROM SOME OF THE BIASES THAT THE OTHER TWO MODEL FIELDS HAVE DEMONSTRATED RECENTLY... ESPECIALLY THE OPERATIONAL MRF. STILL... THE ECMWF IS LIKELY DEMONSTRATING A BIAS OF ITS OWN BE KEEPING THE MEAN RIDGE CENTERED TOO FAR NORTH... AND EXTENED TOO FAR TO THE WEST. IN THE NORTHWEST... ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS CANADA AND THE BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST U.S. AND JUST OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST. GIVEN THE STRONG YET LIKELY UNDERFORECAST NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE... AND RECENT MODEL TENDENCIES TO UNDERFORECAST HEIGHTS ACROSS WEST CANADA AND ALASKA... IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT A PIECE OF PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL DIVE SOUTH OR SOUTEASTWARD... SEPARATING THE MEAN TROUGH NEAR OR OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST FROM THE LOW HEIGHTS IN CANADA. THE OPERATIONAL MRF HAS REVERTED TO CRASHING 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALASKA WHILE THE OTHER MODELS KEEP POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN THIS REGION. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE OPERATIONAL MRF IS AGAIN MOVING TOWARD ITS RECENT BIAS IN THIS REGION... AND FOR NOW HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE OFFICIAL 500 MB BLEND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR FLOODING RISK IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... MIDWEST... OHIO VALLEY... AND POSSIBLY SOME AREAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET... AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED RECENTLY... COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM ANY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT FORM. ALSO... THE EXPECTED PATTERN WOULD LIKELY CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL EARLY-SEASON HEAT WAVE IN THE DEEP SOUTH... AND AT TIMES PARTS OF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL. FINALLY... ALL MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE PATTERN MAY BE TRANSITIONING TO ONE WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKING... WITH POSITIVE 500 MB ANOMALIES EVENTUALLY REACHING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE POLE... THEN CONTINUING SOUTHWARD TO THE POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER IN NORTH EUROPE AND THE ADJACENT NORTH ATLANTIC SOMETIME AFTER THIS PERIOD. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... FORECAST CONFIDENCE COULD TAKE A SHARP DOWNTURN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE MODELS OFTEN HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING SUCH TRANSITIONS... AND ARE ALREADY STARTING TO DEPICT CONTRADICTIONS REGARDING 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER/NEAR GREENLAND. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TODAY IS ABOUT AVERAGE ...RATED 3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL 500-MB HEIGHT FORECAST FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD WAS COMPOSED FROM 55 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8... 15 PERCENT OF THE OPERATIONAL MRF CENTERED ON DAY 8... 15 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... AND 15 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 5. . . . . . . . . MODEL OF THE DAY: ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8 THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 500 MB HEIGHT PROG... THE ENSEMBLE MEAN MOS... BIAS-ADJUSTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE OPERATIONAL MRF... THE DISTRIBUTION OF KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND ANALOGS TO THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS CENTERED ON DAY 8. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON BIAS-ADJUSTED OPERATIONAL MRF OUTPUT... THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500 MB BLENDED HEIGHT PROG... THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE RAW OUTPUT FROM THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... ANALOGS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS CENTERED ON DAY 8... AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE ECMWF. 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 11 - 17 2002 MODEL COMPARISONS: MODEL AGREEMENT TAKES A DOWNTURN THIS PERIOD. BOTH THE OPER- ATIONAL MRF AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF RETROGRESSION BUT DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE DETAILS. BOTH MODELS GENERALLY BRIDGE THE POSITIVE ANOMALY NEAR EUROPE ACROSS THE POLE TO THE STRONG NORTH- CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE... THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL MRF AGAIN DEMONSTRATES ONE OF ITS BIASES BY KEEPING BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF ALASKA. REGARDING THE DETAILS PERTINENT TO THE UNITED STATES... THE OPERATIONAL MRF BUILDS A STRONG TROUGH INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS PERIOD... FORCING THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN TIERS OF THE MEAN TROUGH TO ERODE... RELOCATING ITS CENTRAL ANOMALY WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE... THE OPERATIONAL MRF BUILDS HEIGHTS ACROSS CANADA AS POSITIVE ANOMALIES REACH ACROSS THE POLE... AND DEVELOPS A STRONG TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THIS REGION ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE MRF ALSO BEGINS TO ESTABLISH A CONNECTION FROM THE POS- ITIVE ANOMALIES DEVELOPING OVER THE POLE... AND THE RE-ESTABLISHED MEAN RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST... WHICH SERVES TO FURTHER BUILD AND SEPARATE BOTH NEGATIVE ANOMALIES - THE ONE OFF THE WEST COAST... AND THE ONE IN EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS IS A SHARP DEPARTURE FROM YESTERDAYS MRF AND BECAUSE IT COMES AFTER THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD FOR WHICH THE MRF WAS LARGELY DIS- COUNTED... WE FAVOR THE ENSEMBLE MEAN... WHICH LEANS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE OPERATIONAL MRF RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY... BUT IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE CONSIS- TENT WITH THE EARLIER PATTERN. ALSO... SOME OF THE MRF PATTERN RESULTS FROM ITS MAINTAINANCE OF BELOW-NORMAL 500 MB HEIGHTS IN MOST OF ALASKA... WHICH IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH OTHER MODELS AND WHICH HAS BEEN A COMMON ERROR IN THE MRF RECENTLY. HOWEVER... THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS LIKELY TOO FLAT WITH MOST OF ITS DE- PICTED ANOMALIES... AND GIVEN A TRANSITIONAL REGIME... WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE OPERATIONAL MRF SOLUTION AS A POSSIBILITY THOUGH IT IS AT THE VERY LEAST CHANGING THINGS TOO QUICKLY. TO SLOW DOWN SOME OF THE CHANGES... AND BE- CAUSE OF THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY... THE TWO U.S. MODELS CENTERED ON DAY 7 WERE GIVEN SOME WEIGHT... AS WAS THE DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11... BUT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 RECEIVED THE BULK OF THE CONSIDERATION. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR A WEEK TWO FORECAST AT THIS TIME OF YEAR - RATED 2 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL 500-MB HEIGHT FORECAST FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD WAS COMPOSED FROM 60 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 10 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7... 10 PERCENT OF THE OPERATIONAL MRF CENTERED ON DAY 7... 10 PERCENT OF THE OPERATIONAL MRF CENTERED ON DAY 11... AND 10 PERCENT OF THE DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... BIAS-ADJUSTED MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FROM THE OPERATIONAL MRF... THE DISTRIBUTION OF KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FOR THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CENTERED ON DAY 11... AND ANALOGS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS BASED ON SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE NEURAL NET FOR THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE RAW OUTPUT FROM THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CENTERED ON DAY 11... BIAS-ADJUSTED OUTPUT FROM THE OPERATIONAL MRF CENTERED ON DAY 11... AND ANALOGS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECASTER: R. TINKER . . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE 1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS. . . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:----------------------------------------------------- ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. AVN - THE RUN OF THE MRF MODEL INITIATED AT 12 UTC. BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500 HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500 HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500 HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500 HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. 500 HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500 HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500 HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACCE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MRF - MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODEL. MRF ENSEMBLE - A SET OF MRF FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE MRF ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLA- TION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EAST- WARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500 HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500 HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500 HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500 HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON THURSDAY MAY 16. 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N A RHODE ISL N N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT N B AK S COAST N B AK PNHDL N B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B N WYOMING N B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE ISL N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK S COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN N - NEAR NORMAL B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 - ON AFOS AS NFDPMDMRD. NNNN NNNN