During the past month, repeated surges of tropical moisture into the western U.S. resulted in drought reduction across central California, Nevada, and Oregon. Most major reservoir levels in California are near to above normal for the time of year, and plentiful snowpack conditions are in place across the Cascades and Sierra Nevadas. Further east, generous precipitation during the past month also alleviated drought conditions across the central Rockies, while a series of frontal systems brought swaths of heavy precipitation to the Ohio Valley and Deep South. In contrast, dry conditions continued from the southeastern Plains to the middle Mississippi Valley, resulting in drought development and expansion.

During the next week, an active pattern is expected across the lower 48. Another developing atmospheric river event will bring substantial moisture to the West, with precipitation totals anticipated to exceed 10 inches across the entire coastal region of California and southern Oregon. Up to a foot of liquid equivalent precipitation is forecast to fall over the Sierras, which would continue to build substantial snowpack depth. Based primarily on this short term outlook, widespread drought reductions are favored across California. Heavy precipitation, including mountain snowfall, is also forecast to spread eastward across the Rockies and north-central Plains, resulting in additional drought reductions for Colorado and western Kansas. Additionally, the official CPC seasonal outlook favors above-median precipitation and below-normal temperatures across the northern Plains, which would support drought relief for northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota. Across the East, a slow moving area of low pressure is expected to bring heavy precipitation, particularly to the Deep South and southern Appalachians. Therefore, drought improvements and removal are forecast from northern Louisiana to southwestern Virginia. Longer range forecasts generally favor near to above-median precipitation for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, so continued slow improvement of drought conditions is anticipated from northern Virginia through Maine.

Only small areas of moderate drought remain across Hawaii, and given the fairly wet time of year, drought removal is forecast. There is currently no drought across Alaska and Puerto Rico, and drought conditions are not forecast to develop through the end of April.

Forecaster: Adam Allgood

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: February 16, 2017 at 8:30 AM EST.