Mid-February through mid-March 2016 saw changing weather patterns in California and the Southern states. From mid-February, unusually dry conditions persisted into the start of March, then stormy and wet weather brought above-normal precipitation to the West, southern Great Plains, and lower Mississippi Valley, halting and reversing the declining moisture conditions. Unfortunately, too much rain (15-20 inches) produced severe flooding over northern Louisiana and southeastern Arkansas. The latter half of February brought surplus precipitation to much of the Northeast, eliminating all drought and trimming D0 down to two small areas in coastal New England and the central Appalachians. Significant rains, however, bypassed southeastern Georgia and north-central Florida during this period, leading to D0 expansion there. While most of the 4-week period was dry in the southern Plains, above-normal precipitation and temperatures were observed in the central and northern Plains, albeit that normal totals are low in the winter. But the mild air kept much of this region snow free, with concerns of early green-up period with limited moisture as spring progressed. Farther west, the Northwest, unlike California, experienced frequent storms with ample moisture during most of the Water Year (WY, since Oct. 1), leading to surplus precipitation, adequate snow pack, recharged soil moisture, and filling reservoirs which led to additional improvements since mid-February. In California and the Southwest, however, a lull in Pacific storms during much of February (normally a wet month) and the start of March stagnated WY precipitation, lowered snow pack and water content percentages, and slowed inflow into the reservoirs. Finally, back-to-back storms on March 5-7 and 10-13 halted the deterioration and improved conditions in northern and central California, but unfortunately missed most of southern California and the Southwest, resulting in some deterioration. Outside the contiguous U.S., El Nino-induced dryness affected Hawaii (prompting drought expansion) while unseasonably heavy rains in Puerto Rico provided some relief. 

With respect to conditions by the end of June, the Seasonal Drought Outlook is not expecting any development in the eastern half of the Nation (as no D1 and only a few small D0 areas existed in the March 15 U.S. Drought Monitor). Drought removal is expected in the south-central High Plains and North Dakota, with favorable probabilities of above-median precipitation in the first area and a wet AMJ climatology in the latter region. Similarly, a wet AMJ climatology plus good odds of above-median precipitation during April and AMJ should improve conditions in Wyoming and south-central Montana which are currently experiencing short-term drought and poor WYTD conditions. In contrast, northwestern Montana AMJ climatology is lower and precipitation probabilities were bordering on below-median (in the Pacific Northwest), thus persistence was kept. Recent precipitation and improved WYTD conditions in northern California and Oregon signal much better spring snow melt, stream flows, and reservoir levels as compared to recent past years, thus a 1-category improvement was predicted for these areas. Farther south, however, a subnormal WYTD has not improved conditions much, and some southern California reservoirs have declined since mid-February when they should be rising. With recent dryness and minimal snow pack left in Arizona and western New Mexico, the spring snow melt, stream flows, and reservoir recharge will be meager, leading to expected development here.  Drought is expected to expand and worsen in Hawaii as El Nino-induced dryness lingers, but odds for near to above median rainfall in the Caribbean this spring and summer plus a decline of the El Nino should increase rainfall over Puerto Rico.
 
Forecaster: David Miskus

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: April 21, 2016 at 8:30 AM EDT