In the eastern half of the country, Mid-January through Mid-February 2016 brought above-normal precipitation to much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states, but less than normal amounts to most of the South-Central States, lower Ohio Valley, and non-coastal Northeast. Conditions were dry enough to bring drought into western New York, but some drought was removed from parts of Connecticut, south of the area of 30-day dryness.  Farther west, amounts were 2 to locally 4 inches below normal from the western half of the lower Mississippi Valley westward through eastern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. Despite wet weather overall since October 2015, short-term deficits were significant enough to bring some dryness and a few areas of drought into parts of Texas. Precipitation was also unusually low in the southern High Plains and western Texas, but this is a climatologically dry time of year for the region, and totals were only an inch or so below normal there. Looking farther west, conditions were generally wetter than normal, and drought improved across northern California, Nevada, much of Utah, and scattered areas farther northwest. Only part of Wyoming saw deterioration, and drought remained unchanged in central and southern California, where extreme to exceptional drought (D3 to D4) is entrenched. Outside the contiguous states, generally dry weather affected most of Hawaii (prompting some drought expansion) and Puerto Rico (keeping drought intact). Regarding expected changes by the end of May, The Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought removal where it exists in the Northeast where the last half of February is expected to be somewhat wetter than normal. Drought should persist in southeast North Dakota, and in the small areas that recently developed in southern Texas, as spring is a relatively dry time of year. In central Texas, however, spring precipitation is more robust, and with odds tilting toward above-normal precipitation in the region for March-May, drought removal is expected there. Enhanced chances for above normal precipitation should bring at least some improvement in central and upper southern parts of California, all but northwestern Nevada, northern Utah, and the area extending from northern Wyoming into southern Montana. Climatologically increasing rainfall is the primary consideration in the latter area. In Arizona and southern California, March begins a drier time of year, and precipitation probably won’t be sufficient to bring any improvement there despite odds favoring wetter than normal conditions. In the Northwest and west-central part of the country, forecasts on all time scales favor near- to below-normal precipitation, and persistence is expected there. Drought is expected to expand further through much of Hawaii, where a dry spring is anticipated, and dryness should worsen or intensify where it exists in Puerto Rico.
 
Forecaster: Rich Tinker

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: March 17, 2016 at 8:30 AM EST