Since the previous outlook issued on November 19, drought improvement or removal occurred across the central/southern Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, and parts of the western U.S. The drought coverage across the continental U.S. is at its lowest since December 2010 and much of the existing drought is designated as long-term. 
   
The drought outlook valid from December 17, 2015 through March 31, 2016 is based primarily on the ongoing El Nino, the CPC January-March (JFM) precipitation and temperature outlooks, precipitation forecasts during the remainder of December, recent precipitation anomalies, and climatology.
  
El Nino and a wet time of year favor improvement or removal of drought across California by the end of March 2016. The most likely area for removal exists across extreme northwest California due to abnormal wetness during early to mid-December and a continued wet pattern forecast during the remainder of the month. Effects from the multi-year California drought such as low reservoir levels may continue beyond the outlook period. The predicted longwave pattern during the remainder of December along with El Nino also favors improvement or removal of existing drought across the desert Southwest and Great Basin.

Improvement or removal of drought across Oregon and southwest Idaho is based mostly on the anomalous wetness during December, while persistence is more likely across northeast Idaho and western Montana. Development is forecast by the end of March across the Plains of eastern Montana due to increased chances of below-median precipitation and above-normal temperatures during JFM.
 
Most areas of the continental U.S. east of the Rockies are drought-free. The lingering areas of short-term drought across lower Michigan and Indiana are likely to be eliminated with a wet pattern during the next two weeks. Although below-median precipitation is favored during JFM across the Great Lakes region, drought is not expected to return by the end of March. Meanwhile, the long-term drought across the Northeast is expected to end during the outlook period. 

Although it is a drier time of year across Puerto Rico, rainfall is typically enhanced during El Nino winters. Therefore, removal or limited improvement is forecast for Puerto Rico.

El Nino increases chances for below-median precipitation during JFM across Hawaii, which favors drought development.
 
Forecaster: Brad Pugh

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: January 21, 2016 at 8:30 AM EST