The strong El Nino that is currently in place is considered a major factor in the Seasonal Drought Outlook for December-January-February 2015-16. The southern jetstream and associated storm track that are characteristic of El Nino winters are expected to bring some improvement of drought conditions to California, though given the severity and longevity of the drought in that region, it's unlikely to completely alleviate precipitation deficits and replenish reservoirs in just one season. For the Southwest, central and southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Florida and Georgia, improvement or removal of drought is anticipated. Drought areas in Indiana and Lower Michigan may be removed within the next two weeks, as dynamical models are forecasting an extended period of heavy precipitation. For New England and the New York Tri-State region, proximity to the climatological storm track should be sufficient to justify drought removal. For the northern tier of states, prospects for substantial drought improvement or relief are less optimistic. With the expected southward shift of the storm track during El Nino winters, drought is more likely to persist from the Pacific Northwest and central Great Basin to the Upper Great Lakes region. Drought development is favored for central and eastern Montana, and nearby portions of Wyoming and Idaho. Drought development is also favored for the Hawaiian Islands, which is something that is commonly observed during El Nino winters. In Puerto Rico, the dry season is beginning. This is at odds with historical El Nino precipitation patterns, which favor above-median rainfall during the cold season. It is thought that the wetness associated with El Nino during the upcoming winter may be enough to justify improvement and/or removal of drought across the island.

Forecaster: Anthony Artusa

Next Seasonal Outlook issued: December 17, 2015 at 8:30 AM EST