The drought outlook valid for November 2016 is based on the updated CPC November precipitation and temperature outlooks, WPC QPF 7-day totals, Extended Range Forecasts (Days 6-10 and 8-14), Weeks 3-4 precipitation forecast, recent precipitation anomalies starting at the 12Z October 25 cutoff date of the latest US Drought Monitor, and climatology. In addition, the potential influence of tropical storms is weighed.  

During the past 14-days, rainfall deficits of 1-2 inches have accumulated over approximately the southeastern quarter of the contiguous U.S., in addition to much of the mid-Atlantic and Middle Mississippi Valley. Two to three inch deficits have mounted over the Lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent portions of eastern Texas. Most remaining areas of the contiguous U.S. have received near to above-normal precipitation during the past 2 weeks. Persistent high pressure at the surface and aloft over the Southeast is expected to maintain drought conditions across most of the area, though some relief is possible along the northern and eastern fringes of the drought region due to influences from passing low pressure systems and mid-level troughs. In the Northeast, precipitation outlooks generally favor improvement/removal of drought conditions for western and northern portions of the drought region. The predicted passage of Pacific cyclonic systems leads to drought improvement/removal for eastern Oregon, approximately the northern third of California, northwestern Nevada, and southwestern Montana. Improvement/Removal of drought is also anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains, based on precipitation expected mostly during the first half of November. Drought development is forecast across remaining parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, parts of southeastern Texas, and central and northeastern Oklahoma. Elsewhere, including much of the Intermountain West, the Rockies, and the Great Plains, persistence/intensification of drought is deemed most likely. Improvement is also favored for Hawaii and Puerto Rico during November.

Forecaster: Anthony Artusa

The next Monthly Drought Outlook will be issued: November 30, 2016 at 3pm ET