A lack of rainfall along with above-normal temperatures contributed to an intensification of drought across parts of Georgia, western New York, and New England during August. Meanwhile, a slow-moving area of low pressure resulted in major flooding across Louisiana earlier in the month. Drought changes varied across the Great Plains during the past 30 days, while drought remained steady or worsened slightly across the West. 

The drought outlook valid for September 2016 is based on the updated CPC September precipitation and temperature outlooks, 7-day and Week-2 precipitation forecasts, recent precipitation anomalies, and climatology. Also, the potential influence of tropical cyclones is weighed heavily.  

Tropical Storm Hermine emerging from the Gulf of Mexico at the beginning of September and continued uncertainty with its evolution lead to low forecast confidence across the eastern U.S. Drought improvement and removal is most likely across coastal Georgia and South Carolina along with an increasing potential for improvement and removal of drought across south-central Georgia, parts of South Carolina, Long Island, and southeast New England. Persistence is expected across the remaining drought areas of the eastern U.S., with development most likely across northeast Alabama and eastern Tennessee. 

Drought improvement and removal is expected for the central U.S. A relatively wet (dry) climatology favors removal (persistence) of drought across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico (California and the Great Basin). Drought persistence is expected across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with development most likely across parts of Oregon, eastern Idaho, and western Wyoming.

The small remaining drought area across Puerto Rico is expected to be removed by the end of September. Hurricanes Madeline and Lester are tracking across the Central Pacific. Rainfall associated with these tropical cyclones is expected to result in elimination of drought across Hawaii.

Forecaster: Brad Pugh

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: September 30, 2016 at 3pm EDT