During the past month, widespread heavy rainfall eliminated all remaining drought from Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri, but also caused widespread flooding across parts of eastern and central Texas. Tropical Storm Bonnie, the second pre-season tropical cyclone of 2016, made landfall over South Carolina, bringing widespread heavy rainfall to parts of the southern Atlantic coastal plain. In contrast, drier weather resulted in expanding impacts across parts of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley, the upper Midwest, the Northeast, and the Pacific Northwest. During June, drought persistence is favored across the Southwest due to the dry time of year. Persistence is also favored for the smaller drought areas across the northern Rockies, northern high plains, and southwestern Pennsylvania due to the lack of a clear wet signal among the forecast tools. Rainfall deficits are anticipated to increase near the North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota borders, resulting in drought development by the end of the month. Development is also favored across southern Tennessee and interior portions of Mississippi and Alabama, while persistence is favored across areas of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley already experiencing moderate drought. There is a possibility for additional drought development across the Northwest, upper Midwest, and Northeast, but forecast confidence is too low to indicate these regions on the outlook map. Drought persistence is also favored across Hawaii and Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: Adam Allgood

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: June 30, 2016 at 3:00 PM EDT