During the past month, widespread precipitation resulted in drought reductions across much of the western third of the Nation; although parts of the northern Rockies and the Intermountain West experienced below-normal precipitation. Snowpack conditions are above-normal for this time of year along and to the west of the Continental Divide. At the end of January and beginning of February, a storm with enhanced Pacific moisture is moving inland across the Western U.S., bringing widespread additional rainfall to coastal regions and snowfall to the Cascades, Sierras, and Rockies. This precipitation is expected to be sufficient for additional drought reductions across coastal southern California, all of northern California, and the higher elevations of the Northwest, Rockies, and Great Basin. Following this period of heavy precipitation, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build across the West, promoting a period of below-median precipitation and above-normal temperatures. This interruption in the typical climate anomalies associated with El Nino conditions may limit the potential for additional improvements following the major winter storm at the beginning of this monthly outlook, although wetter conditions may return towards the end of the month. Across the northern Plains, drought persistence is the most likely outcome for the Bighorn region, while extant snow coverage and a potential for new snow accumulations makes drought elimination more favorable across North Dakota. Continued wet weather across the Northeast favors drought removal, while a pronounced dry signal during El Nino winters favors drought expansion for Hawaii. Persistence of drought during February is anticipated for Puerto Rico in the absence of a clear wet signal during the dry season.

Forecaster: Adam Allgood and Brad Pugh

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: February 29, 2016 at 3:00 PM EST