During the past month, much above-average precipitation resulted in drought improvement or removal across much of the Pacific Northwest and Great Plains. Drought development was limited to northern Wyoming and small areas near Lakes Erie and Ontario. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), drought coverage across the continental U.S. is at its lowest in five years.
 
The monthly drought outlook valid for January 2016 is based on initial conditions, short and extended range precipitation forecasts, the CPC January precipitation and temperature outlooks, and climatology. Across the western U.S., drought improvement or removal (for areas designated as D1 on the USDM) is most likely across southwest Oregon, coastal northern California, southern California, and the desert Southwest. Due to the longevity of the drought across California, a larger area of improvement is not expected by the end of January. However, the ongoing El Nino continues to favor improvement across California during the late winter. 

An expansion of drought is anticipated near the Big Horn mountain range of northern Wyoming and parts of southeast Montana due to low snow water content values and a dry signal among the precipitation tools during the next month. Persistence is forecast for the small areas of drought across the Great Lakes region. Climatology, recent rain and snow, and a lack of a dry signal among precipitation tools favors drought removal across the Northeast.
 
A below-normal rainfall signal among the dynamical model tools, which is consistent with climate anomalies associated with El Nino, favors drought development across parts of Hawaii by the end of January. Drought persistence is most likely across Puerto Rico during a relatively dry time of year.

Forecaster: Brad Pugh and Adam Allgood

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: January 31, 2016 at 3:00 PM EST