The Pacific Northwest has had a very active start to its wet season, and this wet pattern is forecast to continue well into December. Portions of the Oregon coast may experience drought improvement or removal, while drought persistence is favored across the remainder of the Northwest. Some of the storm systems expected to sweep across the Northwest are forecast to bring precipitation to northern California, but not enough is anticipated to warrant drought improvement in December. Drought is likely to persist across the Intermountain region, develop across central and eastern Montana, and persist in North Dakota. The current El Nino favors a southern storm track and associated jetstream, which is the main impetus behind the predicted removal of existing drought conditions across New Mexico, the central and southern Plains, the Lower Ohio Valley, and the Northeast. The most uncertain part of this outlook is over the Great Lakes area, where the dry signal typically associated with El Nino has not yet become fully established. Short-term gains in precipitation may be enough to justify drought removal in Upper Michigan, but confidence is low. Recent heavy rains across much of Hawaii have helped to delay the onset of dryness typically associated with El Nino. Small areas of drought are possible, however, across southern Maui, and the Kona region of the Big Island. Puerto Rico is anticipated to see a 1-category improvement overall in drought conditions, due to typical impacts from an El Nino.
    
Forecaster: Anthony Artusa

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: December 31, 2015 at 3:00 PM EST