Urban Heat Island Forecasts

NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System

Initial: 20221115Z00

International Desks

Climate Prediction Center

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

		Week 2: 22Nov2022 - 28Nov2022				Week 3: 29Nov2022 - 05Dec2022				Week 4: 06Dec2022 - 12Dec2022
NO	Stations	80th Pctl Clim	Higher Tmax Prob.	Dry or Little Rain Prob.	Heat Alert	80th Pctl Clim	Higher Tmax Prob.	Dry or Little Rain Prob.	Heat Alert	80th Pctl Clim	Higher Tmax Prob.	Dry or Little Rain Prob.	Heat Alert
1	Tahoua	35.8 degC	0%	100%	Inac	34.3 degC	27%	100%	Inac	34.0 degC	30%	100%	Inac
2	Niamey	37.0 degC	0%	100%	Inac	35.7 degC	23%	100%	Inac	35.6 degC	27%	100%	Inac
3	Ouagadougou	37.5 degC	0%	100%	Inac	36.7 degC	7%	100%	Inac	36.2 degC	20%	100%	Inac
4	Mopti	35.5 degC	0%	100%	Inac	34.5 degC	23%	100%	Inac	32.8 degC	57%	100%	Actv
5	Bamako	36.2 degC	7%	100%	Inac	35.3 degC	17%	100%	Inac	34.6 degC	53%	100%	Actv
6	Kayes	38.0 degC	7%	100%	Inac	37.3 degC	10%	100%	Inac	35.7 degC	43%	100%	Inac
7	Tamba	39.2 degC	3%	100%	Inac	38.6 degC	3%	100%	Inac	37.5 degC	27%	100%	Inac
8	Kedougou	39.0 degC	0%	100%	Inac	38.3 degC	3%	100%	Inac	38.1 degC	7%	97%	Inac
9	Saraya	40.5 degC	0%	100%	Inac	39.4 degC	0%	100%	Inac	39.1 degC	10%	97%	Inac
10	Dalafi	39.9 degC	0%	100%	Inac	39.0 degC	7%	100%	Inac	38.3 degC	20%	97%	Inac
11	Goudiri	38.6 degC	3%	100%	Inac	38.0 degC	0%	100%	Inac	36.9 degC	27%	100%	Inac
12	Naye	38.5 degC	3%	100%	Inac	38.0 degC	0%	100%	Inac	36.4 degC	30%	100%	Inac
13	Bakel	37.7 degC	7%	100%	Inac	37.2 degC	7%	100%	Inac	35.7 degC	30%	100%	Inac
14	Koupentoum	38.5 degC	3%	100%	Inac	37.9 degC	0%	100%	Inac	36.7 degC	27%	100%	Inac
15	Mamari	37.9 degC	3%	100%	Inac	37.3 degC	7%	100%	Inac	35.9 degC	30%	100%	Inac
16	Velingara	39.8 degC	0%	100%	Inac	39.0 degC	0%	100%	Inac	38.7 degC	17%	100%	Inac
17	Matam	37.4 degC	10%	100%	Inac	36.8 degC	13%	100%	Inac	35.3 degC	33%	100%	Inac
18	Haire_Lao	36.4 degC	13%	100%	Inac	36.2 degC	10%	100%	Inac	34.4 degC	30%	100%	Inac
19	Podor	36.2 degC	13%	100%	Inac	35.9 degC	10%	100%	Inac	34.3 degC	23%	100%	Inac
20	Richard_Toll	36.2 degC	20%	100%	Inac	35.9 degC	10%	100%	Inac	34.4 degC	27%	100%	Inac
21	Linguere	37.1 degC	13%	100%	Inac	36.7 degC	7%	100%	Inac	35.1 degC	30%	100%	Inac
22	Daraa	37.0 degC	13%	100%	Inac	36.8 degC	7%	100%	Inac	35.1 degC	27%	100%	Inac
23	Louga	36.8 degC	17%	100%	Inac	36.5 degC	7%	100%	Inac	35.0 degC	27%	100%	Inac
24	Touba	37.1 degC	7%	100%	Inac	36.8 degC	10%	100%	Inac	35.3 degC	30%	100%	Inac
25	Diourbel	37.6 degC	3%	100%	Inac	37.2 degC	0%	100%	Inac	35.8 degC	27%	100%	Inac
26	Bambey	37.4 degC	0%	100%	Inac	36.9 degC	3%	100%	Inac	35.5 degC	27%	100%	Inac
27	Koungheul	38.3 degC	0%	100%	Inac	37.7 degC	0%	100%	Inac	36.6 degC	23%	100%	Inac
28	Kaffrine	37.8 degC	0%	100%	Inac	37.2 degC	0%	100%	Inac	36.2 degC	23%	100%	Inac
29	Kaolack	37.5 degC	0%	100%	Inac	37.1 degC	0%	100%	Inac	36.0 degC	23%	100%	Inac
30	Fatick	37.4 degC	0%	100%	Inac	36.9 degC	3%	100%	Inac	35.5 degC	27%	100%	Inac
31	Gossas	37.6 degC	3%	100%	Inac	37.2 degC	0%	100%	Inac	35.8 degC	27%	100%	Inac
32	Freetown	33.2 degC	3%	97%	Inac	33.8 degC	0%	100%	Inac	33.8 degC	10%	100%	Inac
33	Cairo	25.5 degC	0%	100%	Inac	25.5 degC	3%	97%	Inac	22.0 degC	33%	100%	Inac
34	Alexandria	24.3 degC	3%	97%	Inac	24.0 degC	7%	97%	Inac	21.2 degC	33%	100%	Inac
35	Giza	25.5 degC	0%	100%	Inac	25.5 degC	3%	97%	Inac	22.0 degC	33%	100%	Inac
36	Luxor	28.9 degC	7%	100%	Inac	28.8 degC	10%	100%	Inac	25.5 degC	33%	100%	Inac
37	Sirte	24.5 degC	7%	93%	Inac	23.4 degC	10%	97%	Inac	20.5 degC	40%	100%	Inac
38	Tripoli	21.7 degC	17%	93%	Inac	21.4 degC	10%	83%	Inac	19.5 degC	23%	97%	Inac
39	Benghazi	21.7 degC	10%	90%	Inac	21.4 degC	3%	97%	Inac	19.4 degC	33%	93%	Inac
40	Mistratah	22.6 degC	13%	93%	Inac	22.0 degC	10%	93%	Inac	19.7 degC	40%	100%	Inac
41	Tunis	19.8 degC	47%	93%	Inac	19.3 degC	43%	90%	Inac	17.9 degC	50%	87%	Inac
42	Sfax	20.4 degC	70%	97%	Inac	19.5 degC	43%	97%	Inac	18.7 degC	40%	100%	Inac
43	Sousse	20.8 degC	53%	97%	Inac	19.6 degC	40%	100%	Inac	18.6 degC	47%	97%	Inac
44	Algiers	18.4 degC	53%	83%	Inac	18.0 degC	23%	87%	Inac	17.4 degC	7%	87%	Inac
45	Oran	20.3 degC	53%	93%	Inac	18.8 degC	47%	97%	Inac	18.6 degC	40%	97%	Inac
46	Constantine	17.5 degC	37%	93%	Inac	16.8 degC	40%	93%	Inac	15.3 degC	43%	93%	Inac
47	Annaba	19.2 degC	53%	80%	Inac	18.9 degC	40%	70%	Inac	17.2 degC	53%	73%	Inac
48	Casablanca	20.2 degC	57%	93%	Inac	20.2 degC	47%	97%	Inac	19.7 degC	40%	80%	Inac
49	Rabat	19.3 degC	53%	97%	Inac	19.0 degC	33%	90%	Inac	18.5 degC	13%	90%	Inac
50	Fes	18.8 degC	67%	97%	Inac	19.1 degC	47%	97%	Inac	17.7 degC	60%	87%	Inac
51	Sale	15.6 degC	67%	100%	Inac	15.2 degC	50%	93%	Inac	14.8 degC	43%	97%	Inac
52	Riyadh	25.6 degC	87%	100%	Actv	25.6 degC	33%	100%	Inac	24.6 degC	47%	97%	Inac
53	Jeddah	29.0 degC	0%	93%	Inac	28.6 degC	0%	93%	Inac	27.6 degC	0%	93%	Inac
54	Mecca	31.1 degC	7%	97%	Inac	30.4 degC	7%	97%	Inac	29.5 degC	13%	97%	Inac
55	Medina	28.6 degC	63%	100%	Actv	27.7 degC	40%	100%	Inac	27.9 degC	30%	100%	Inac
56	Sanaa	21.3 degC	0%	100%	Inac	21.2 degC	13%	97%	Inac	20.7 degC	40%	100%	Inac
57	Al_Hudaydah	30.7 degC	7%	100%	Inac	30.3 degC	3%	100%	Inac	29.9 degC	0%	100%	Inac
58	Aden	31.2 degC	10%	100%	Inac	30.6 degC	10%	100%	Inac	30.2 degC	10%	100%	Inac
59	London	11.0 degC	37%	87%	Inac	12.3 degC	3%	90%	Inac	9.7 degC	27%	90%	Inac
60	Paris	11.1 degC	43%	100%	Inac	11.5 degC	13%	97%	Inac	9.2 degC	37%	90%	Inac
61	Istanbul	15.4 degC	10%	90%	Inac	14.1 degC	7%	97%	Inac	11.7 degC	37%	87%	Inac
62	Moscow	1.9 degC	7%	97%	Inac	1.9 degC	10%	93%	Inac	0.7 degC	20%	97%	Inac
63	Madrid	11.4 degC	40%	93%	Inac	11.5 degC	33%	93%	Inac	11.3 degC	23%	83%	Inac
64	Rome	16.5 degC	17%	70%	Inac	15.8 degC	17%	97%	Inac	13.9 degC	47%	83%	Inac
65	Frankfurt	9.1 degC	33%	87%	Inac	9.8 degC	7%	87%	Inac	6.8 degC	40%	93%	Inac
66	Kyiv	5.3 degC	33%	97%	Inac	4.3 degC	23%	97%	Inac	3.8 degC	17%	97%	Inac
67	Berlin	8.6 degC	20%	100%	Inac	8.4 degC	17%	100%	Inac	7.1 degC	27%	100%	Inac
68	Bucharest	11.7 degC	20%	93%	Inac	9.8 degC	23%	93%	Inac	8.5 degC	33%	100%	Inac
69	Tokyo	16.1 degC	37%	80%	Inac	14.7 degC	17%	83%	Inac	13.6 degC	10%	87%	Inac
70	Jakarta	28.2 degC	0%	67%	Inac	28.1 degC	0%	63%	Inac	28.3 degC	3%	63%	Inac
71	Delhi	27.7 degC	33%	100%	Inac	27.1 degC	17%	100%	Inac	25.3 degC	43%	100%	Inac
72	Manila	30.0 degC	20%	50%	Inac	30.3 degC	0%	67%	Inac	29.2 degC	20%	57%	Inac
73	Seoul	9.5 degC	27%	100%	Inac	7.1 degC	3%	100%	Inac	5.7 degC	40%	100%	Inac
74	Mumbai	8.1 degC	13%	100%	Inac	6.1 degC	7%	100%	Inac	4.2 degC	23%	100%	Inac
75	Shanghai	17.0 degC	27%	83%	Inac	15.2 degC	13%	93%	Inac	13.4 degC	30%	97%	Inac
76	Guangzhou	25.9 degC	37%	83%	Inac	24.9 degC	17%	93%	Inac	23.5 degC	27%	100%	Inac
77	Beijing	8.1 degC	13%	100%	Inac	6.1 degC	7%	100%	Inac	4.2 degC	23%	100%	Inac
78	Kolkata	29.8 degC	47%	100%	Inac	29.4 degC	50%	97%	Inac	28.9 degC	63%	97%	Actv
79	Bangkok	32.0 degC	10%	50%	Inac	32.0 degC	3%	80%	Inac	32.0 degC	13%	100%	Inac
80	Dhaka	29.3 degC	50%	100%	Inac	28.8 degC	50%	100%	Inac	28.2 degC	60%	100%	Actv
81	Karachi	30.6 degC	20%	100%	Inac	30.0 degC	17%	100%	Inac	28.5 degC	27%	100%	Inac
82	Mexico_City	20.2 degC	53%	87%	Inac	20.2 degC	37%	97%	Inac	19.7 degC	20%	97%	Inac
83	New_York	12.1 degC	20%	73%	Inac	10.8 degC	23%	80%	Inac	9.3 degC	23%	83%	Inac
84	Los_Angeles	21.4 degC	33%	93%	Inac	20.7 degC	23%	90%	Inac	19.5 degC	40%	90%	Inac
85	Chicago	8.8 degC	30%	77%	Inac	6.1 degC	43%	87%	Inac	4.9 degC	43%	90%	Inac
86	Dallas	17.2 degC	60%	60%	Inac	16.7 degC	53%	83%	Inac	14.3 degC	47%	77%	Inac
87	Houston	21.4 degC	47%	63%	Inac	19.9 degC	63%	87%	Inac	18.7 degC	57%	90%	Inac
88	Toronto	8.5 degC	23%	73%	Inac	6.3 degC	23%	87%	Inac	4.7 degC	40%	90%	Inac
89	Washington_DC	13.2 degC	20%	77%	Inac	11.8 degC	30%	77%	Inac	9.8 degC	33%	87%	Inac
90	Philadelphia	12.2 degC	23%	80%	Inac	11.3 degC	20%	80%	Inac	9.0 degC	37%	83%	Inac
91	Miami	25.1 degC	67%	87%	Actv	25.4 degC	43%	77%	Inac	25.7 degC	10%	77%	Inac
92	Leon	26.6 degC	70%	43%	Inac	26.6 degC	37%	67%	Inac	26.3 degC	30%	90%	Inac
93	Santa_Ana	30.4 degC	7%	53%	Inac	30.6 degC	3%	67%	Inac	31.8 degC	0%	87%	Inac
94	San_José	23.1 degC	60%	20%	Inac	24.0 degC	10%	30%	Inac	23.5 degC	17%	43%	Inac
95	Panama_City	29.2 degC	7%	17%	Inac	29.5 degC	0%	33%	Inac	29.5 degC	0%	37%	Inac
96	San_Salvador	30.9 degC	0%	67%	Inac	31.3 degC	0%	77%	Inac	31.6 degC	0%	87%	Inac
97	Guatemala_City	27.5 degC	0%	90%	Inac	27.6 degC	3%	83%	Inac	27.6 degC	0%	90%	Inac
98	Managua	28.8 degC	10%	30%	Inac	28.9 degC	0%	57%	Inac	29.3 degC	0%	90%	Inac
99	Tegucigalpa	25.8 degC	50%	63%	Inac	25.7 degC	30%	77%	Inac	25.8 degC	20%	90%	Inac
100	San-Juan	27.8 degC	7%	70%	Inac	27.5 degC	7%	87%	Inac	27.1 degC	0%	90%	Inac
101	Havana	27.0 degC	73%	80%	Actv	27.4 degC	40%	83%	Inac	27.7 degC	13%	93%	Inac
102	Santiago_de_Cuba	27.9 degC	27%	83%	Inac	27.8 degC	0%	83%	Inac	27.6 degC	0%	100%	Inac
103	Santiago_de_los_Caballeros	27.5 degC	17%	47%	Inac	27.5 degC	3%	70%	Inac	27.2 degC	0%	70%	Inac
104	Port_of_Spain	28.1 degC	7%	0%	Inac	28.0 degC	0%	47%	Inac	27.6 degC	3%	47%	Inac
105	Sao_Paulo	27.3 degC	47%	30%	Inac	27.6 degC	27%	23%	Inac	27.5 degC	37%	53%	Inac
106	Rio_de_Janeiro	28.9 degC	7%	60%	Inac	28.5 degC	17%	60%	Inac	29.1 degC	3%	53%	Inac
107	Brazilia	33.9 degC	27%	30%	Inac	32.7 degC	17%	20%	Inac	32.8 degC	33%	27%	Inac
108	Juazeiro	35.1 degC	3%	87%	Inac	35.8 degC	0%	80%	Inac	34.7 degC	27%	73%	Inac
109	Sidney	28.3 degC	7%	90%	Inac	28.2 degC	7%	77%	Inac	29.1 degC	3%	77%	Inac
110	Melbourne	22.5 degC	0%	80%	Inac	22.7 degC	7%	90%	Inac	22.6 degC	10%	97%	Inac
111	Alice_Springs	35.2 degC	0%	83%	Inac	35.2 degC	7%	97%	Inac	36.4 degC	7%	97%	Inac
112	Darwin	36.6 degC	7%	17%	Inac	36.3 degC	10%	20%	Inac	35.8 degC	27%	50%	Inac
113	Johannesburg	29.7 degC	23%	57%	Inac	30.4 degC	7%	43%	Inac	29.5 degC	10%	40%	Inac
114	Pretoria	32.1 degC	27%	63%	Inac	33.2 degC	10%	43%	Inac	31.3 degC	30%	50%	Inac
115	Durban	24.7 degC	53%	77%	Inac	25.0 degC	53%	63%	Actv	25.4 degC	40%	67%	Inac
116	Belize_City	27.4 degC	63%	13%	Inac	27.4 degC	30%	37%	Inac	27.3 degC	17%	47%	Inac
117	San_Ignacio	27.8 degC	17%	67%	Inac	27.8 degC	20%	83%	Inac	27.4 degC	7%	87%	Inac
118	San_Pedro_Town	27.3 degC	60%	20%	Inac	27.4 degC	27%	47%	Inac	27.3 degC	7%	50%	Inac
119	Kingston	28.1 degC	93%	77%	Actv	28.3 degC	30%	67%	Inac	28.1 degC	33%	93%	Inac
120	Nassau	25.1 degC	87%	80%	Actv	25.2 degC	63%	70%	Actv	25.4 degC	23%	77%	Inac
121	Lucaya	24.4 degC	73%	90%	Inac	24.6 degC	43%	77%	Inac	24.8 degC	17%	77%	Inac
122	Cockburn_Town	27.1 degC	60%	73%	Actv	27.1 degC	13%	77%	Inac	26.8 degC	10%	90%	Inac
123	Port-au-Prince	27.8 degC	27%	77%	Inac	27.8 degC	0%	93%	Inac	28.0 degC	3%	100%	Inac
124	Port-de-Paix	27.3 degC	80%	83%	Actv	27.2 degC	43%	87%	Inac	27.2 degC	3%	97%	Inac
125	Santo_Domingo	28.0 degC	100%	70%	Actv	27.8 degC	67%	97%	Actv	27.4 degC	87%	100%	Actv
126	Santiago_de_los_Caballeros	28.6 degC	97%	73%	Actv	28.5 degC	67%	100%	Actv	28.2 degC	77%	97%	Actv
127	The_Valley	27.5 degC	23%	87%	Inac	27.3 degC	7%	97%	Inac	27.0 degC	7%	97%	Inac
128	Cul_de_Sac	27.5 degC	23%	87%	Inac	27.3 degC	7%	97%	Inac	27.0 degC	7%	97%	Inac
129	Basseterre	27.5 degC	13%	83%	Inac	27.3 degC	3%	97%	Inac	27.0 degC	7%	93%	Inac
130	Fig_Tree	27.7 degC	3%	83%	Inac	27.4 degC	0%	100%	Inac	27.1 degC	3%	93%	Inac
131	Les_Abymes	27.6 degC	3%	77%	Inac	27.4 degC	3%	93%	Inac	27.2 degC	0%	90%	Inac
132	Le_Gosier	27.8 degC	3%	67%	Inac	27.5 degC	7%	83%	Inac	27.2 degC	7%	90%	Inac
133	Roseau	27.8 degC	0%	73%	Inac	27.6 degC	0%	93%	Inac	27.3 degC	0%	93%	Inac
134	Fort-de-France	28.2 degC	0%	60%	Inac	28.0 degC	0%	73%	Inac	27.7 degC	10%	90%	Inac
135	Castries	28.6 degC	0%	57%	Inac	28.5 degC	0%	73%	Inac	28.0 degC	0%	83%	Inac
136	Vieux_Fort	28.0 degC	0%	50%	Inac	27.8 degC	0%	73%	Inac	27.5 degC	0%	77%	Inac
137	Kingstown	28.1 degC	0%	40%	Inac	27.8 degC	3%	70%	Inac	27.5 degC	3%	73%	Inac
138	Georgetown	28.0 degC	0%	50%	Inac	27.8 degC	0%	73%	Inac	27.5 degC	0%	77%	Inac
139	Bridgetown	28.1 degC	0%	47%	Inac	27.8 degC	3%	63%	Inac	27.4 degC	3%	73%	Inac
140	Speightstown	28.0 degC	0%	47%	Inac	27.7 degC	3%	67%	Inac	27.3 degC	7%	77%	Inac
141	Saint_George	28.2 degC	0%	23%	Inac	27.9 degC	0%	70%	Inac	27.6 degC	0%	73%	Inac
142	Chaguanas	30.0 degC	0%	10%	Inac	29.5 degC	0%	57%	Inac	29.1 degC	0%	57%	Inac
143	Georgetown	28.3 degC	0%	3%	Inac	28.1 degC	0%	0%	Inac	27.9 degC	0%	13%	Inac
144	Linden	32.3 degC	0%	10%	Inac	31.4 degC	7%	7%	Inac	30.9 degC	17%	17%	Inac
145	New_Amsterdam	32.5 degC	0%	3%	Inac	31.5 degC	3%	7%	Inac	31.1 degC	7%	10%	Inac
146	Paramaribo	29.9 degC	3%	30%	Inac	29.5 degC	3%	10%	Inac	29.0 degC	10%	23%	Inac
147	Lelydorp	35.8 degC	0%	30%	Inac	34.9 degC	0%	13%	Inac	33.5 degC	0%	23%	Inac
148	Brokopondo	33.9 degC	0%	37%	Inac	33.5 degC	0%	23%	Inac	32.8 degC	0%	30%	Inac
149	Oranjestad	28.5 degC	0%	57%	Inac	28.0 degC	0%	73%	Inac	27.7 degC	0%	70%	Inac
150	Willemstad	28.5 degC	0%	23%	Inac	27.9 degC	0%	53%	Inac	27.7 degC	0%	53%	Inac
151	Barber	28.5 degC	0%	33%	Inac	28.1 degC	0%	73%	Inac	27.7 degC	0%	63%	Inac
152	Kralendijk	28.5 degC	0%	27%	Inac	28.0 degC	0%	57%	Inac	27.7 degC	0%	63%	Inac

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Last Update: Wed Nov 16 06:30:18 UTC 2022

Questions or comments about the Urban Heat Island outlooks may be directed to Dr. Wassila Thiaw, Head, International Desks/NOAA, wassila.thiaw@noaa.gov with copy to endalkachew.bekele@noaa.gov and li.xu@noaa,gov.