Urban Heat Island Forecasts

NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System

Initial: 20221106Z00

International Desks
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Week 2: 13Nov2022 - 19Nov2022 Week 3: 20Nov2022 - 26Nov2022 Week 4: 27Nov2022 - 03Dec2022
NO Stations 90th Pctl Clim Higher Tmax Prob. Dry or Little Rain Prob. Heat Alert 90th Pctl Clim Higher Tmax Prob. Dry or Little Rain Prob. Heat Alert 90th Pctl Clim Higher Tmax Prob. Dry or Little Rain Prob. Heat Alert
1 Tahoua 36.6 degC 7% 100% Inac 36.2 degC 13% 100% Inac 35.2 degC 17% 100% Inac
2 Niamey 37.8 degC 3% 100% Inac 37.5 degC 17% 100% Inac 36.6 degC 23% 100% Inac
3 Ouagadougou 38.2 degC 0% 100% Inac 37.9 degC 3% 100% Inac 37.3 degC 7% 100% Inac
4 Mopti 36.4 degC 0% 100% Inac 36.0 degC 20% 100% Inac 35.0 degC 23% 100% Inac
5 Bamako 36.6 degC 3% 100% Inac 36.5 degC 10% 100% Inac 36.2 degC 23% 100% Inac
6 Kayes 38.7 degC 0% 100% Inac 38.5 degC 17% 100% Inac 38.4 degC 13% 100% Inac
7 Tamba 40.0 degC 0% 100% Inac 39.6 degC 3% 100% Inac 39.6 degC 13% 100% Inac
8 Kedougou 39.3 degC 0% 100% Inac 39.4 degC 0% 97% Inac 39.3 degC 3% 100% Inac
9 Saraya 40.7 degC 0% 100% Inac 41.0 degC 0% 97% Inac 40.5 degC 0% 100% Inac
10 Dalafi 40.7 degC 0% 100% Inac 40.6 degC 0% 100% Inac 39.8 degC 13% 100% Inac
11 Goudiri 39.0 degC 0% 100% Inac 39.2 degC 0% 100% Inac 38.9 degC 10% 100% Inac
12 Naye 38.8 degC 0% 100% Inac 39.0 degC 3% 100% Inac 38.8 degC 13% 100% Inac
13 Bakel 38.4 degC 3% 100% Inac 38.2 degC 3% 100% Inac 38.0 degC 13% 100% Inac
14 Koupentoum 38.7 degC 0% 100% Inac 39.0 degC 0% 100% Inac 38.8 degC 7% 100% Inac
15 Mamari 38.5 degC 3% 100% Inac 38.2 degC 0% 100% Inac 38.3 degC 13% 100% Inac
16 Velingara 40.5 degC 0% 100% Inac 40.4 degC 0% 100% Inac 39.7 degC 10% 100% Inac
17 Matam 38.1 degC 7% 100% Inac 37.7 degC 13% 100% Inac 38.0 degC 13% 100% Inac
18 Haire_Lao 37.4 degC 3% 100% Inac 36.8 degC 10% 100% Inac 37.1 degC 13% 100% Inac
19 Podor 37.1 degC 3% 100% Inac 36.7 degC 10% 100% Inac 36.8 degC 13% 100% Inac
20 Richard_Toll 37.0 degC 3% 100% Inac 36.7 degC 3% 100% Inac 36.6 degC 13% 100% Inac
21 Linguere 37.6 degC 3% 100% Inac 37.5 degC 0% 100% Inac 37.5 degC 13% 100% Inac
22 Daraa 37.6 degC 0% 100% Inac 37.5 degC 0% 100% Inac 37.4 degC 13% 100% Inac
23 Louga 37.4 degC 0% 100% Inac 37.3 degC 0% 100% Inac 37.2 degC 10% 100% Inac
24 Touba 37.7 degC 0% 100% Inac 37.6 degC 0% 100% Inac 37.4 degC 10% 100% Inac
25 Diourbel 38.0 degC 0% 100% Inac 38.0 degC 0% 100% Inac 37.8 degC 7% 100% Inac
26 Bambey 37.8 degC 0% 100% Inac 37.7 degC 0% 100% Inac 37.6 degC 7% 100% Inac
27 Koungheul 38.5 degC 0% 100% Inac 38.8 degC 0% 100% Inac 38.6 degC 7% 100% Inac
28 Kaffrine 38.0 degC 0% 100% Inac 38.2 degC 0% 100% Inac 38.1 degC 7% 100% Inac
29 Kaolack 37.8 degC 0% 100% Inac 38.0 degC 0% 100% Inac 37.8 degC 7% 100% Inac
30 Fatick 37.8 degC 0% 100% Inac 37.7 degC 0% 100% Inac 37.6 degC 7% 100% Inac
31 Gossas 38.0 degC 0% 100% Inac 38.0 degC 0% 100% Inac 37.8 degC 7% 100% Inac
32 Freetown 33.1 degC 0% 93% Inac 33.4 degC 7% 97% Inac 34.2 degC 3% 97% Inac
33 Cairo 26.4 degC 0% 100% Inac 26.5 degC 3% 100% Inac 27.3 degC 0% 100% Inac
34 Alexandria 25.7 degC 0% 97% Inac 25.4 degC 3% 100% Inac 26.0 degC 0% 100% Inac
35 Giza 26.4 degC 0% 100% Inac 26.5 degC 3% 100% Inac 27.3 degC 0% 100% Inac
36 Luxor 30.1 degC 3% 100% Inac 29.5 degC 17% 100% Inac 30.8 degC 3% 100% Inac
37 Sirte 25.9 degC 17% 100% Inac 25.7 degC 17% 100% Inac 24.4 degC 17% 100% Inac
38 Tripoli 23.3 degC 10% 97% Inac 22.8 degC 20% 93% Inac 22.4 degC 7% 83% Inac
39 Benghazi 22.9 degC 3% 100% Inac 22.5 degC 17% 100% Inac 22.6 degC 7% 90% Inac
40 Mistratah 23.8 degC 17% 100% Inac 23.7 degC 17% 93% Inac 23.0 degC 13% 87% Inac
41 Tunis 22.9 degC 20% 87% Inac 21.2 degC 37% 93% Inac 20.4 degC 30% 90% Inac
42 Sfax 22.1 degC 43% 93% Inac 21.4 degC 37% 97% Inac 20.2 degC 33% 93% Inac
43 Sousse 23.2 degC 27% 100% Inac 22.1 degC 30% 100% Inac 21.0 degC 27% 90% Inac
44 Algiers 20.4 degC 17% 83% Inac 19.6 degC 23% 70% Inac 18.1 degC 20% 87% Inac
45 Oran 22.6 degC 40% 97% Inac 21.2 degC 30% 93% Inac 19.7 degC 27% 100% Inac
46 Constantine 20.3 degC 30% 97% Inac 18.9 degC 30% 87% Inac 17.7 degC 30% 90% Inac
47 Annaba 21.8 degC 23% 90% Inac 20.8 degC 27% 70% Inac 19.5 degC 27% 77% Inac
48 Casablanca 22.7 degC 20% 90% Inac 21.7 degC 33% 97% Inac 20.9 degC 23% 100% Inac
49 Rabat 20.9 degC 20% 83% Inac 19.8 degC 30% 83% Inac 19.7 degC 20% 87% Inac
50 Fes 21.9 degC 30% 83% Inac 20.6 degC 37% 90% Inac 19.4 degC 27% 93% Inac
51 Sale 18.0 degC 43% 93% Inac 17.7 degC 27% 90% Inac 16.3 degC 30% 93% Inac
52 Riyadh 29.8 degC 23% 100% Inac 26.4 degC 40% 97% Inac 26.2 degC 50% 93% Inac
53 Jeddah 29.8 degC 0% 100% Inac 29.4 degC 0% 93% Inac 28.8 degC 0% 100% Inac
54 Mecca 32.4 degC 7% 100% Inac 31.6 degC 3% 97% Inac 31.0 degC 7% 100% Inac
55 Medina 31.3 degC 10% 100% Inac 29.1 degC 17% 97% Inac 29.6 degC 10% 100% Inac
56 Sanaa 22.2 degC 7% 100% Inac 21.6 degC 7% 97% Inac 21.8 degC 3% 90% Inac
57 Al_Hudaydah 31.6 degC 0% 97% Inac 31.0 degC 0% 100% Inac 30.8 degC 0% 100% Inac
58 Aden 32.0 degC 17% 100% Inac 31.6 degC 3% 100% Inac 31.2 degC 0% 100% Inac
59 London 12.3 degC 20% 80% Inac 12.0 degC 0% 93% Inac 12.4 degC 7% 90% Inac
60 Paris 13.1 degC 13% 93% Inac 12.6 degC 3% 87% Inac 11.9 degC 10% 90% Inac
61 Istanbul 17.8 degC 0% 87% Inac 16.2 degC 3% 97% Inac 15.9 degC 0% 83% Inac
62 Moscow 4.3 degC 17% 100% Inac 3.5 degC 7% 100% Inac 3.4 degC 0% 100% Inac
63 Madrid 16.3 degC 3% 90% Inac 13.3 degC 13% 83% Inac 12.5 degC 27% 87% Inac
64 Rome 18.5 degC 23% 83% Inac 17.5 degC 20% 60% Inac 16.1 degC 3% 70% Inac
65 Frankfurt 12.1 degC 3% 97% Inac 10.8 degC 0% 97% Inac 10.1 degC 3% 93% Inac
66 Kyiv 9.5 degC 3% 100% Inac 8.0 degC 3% 97% Inac 6.2 degC 10% 97% Inac
67 Berlin 11.6 degC 7% 93% Inac 10.9 degC 0% 100% Inac 9.0 degC 13% 100% Inac
68 Bucharest 16.8 degC 0% 93% Inac 13.2 degC 13% 97% Inac 11.8 degC 7% 100% Inac
69 Tokyo 18.4 degC 0% 80% Inac 16.3 degC 3% 77% Inac 17.1 degC 0% 83% Inac
70 Jakarta 27.9 degC 10% 57% Inac 28.3 degC 7% 50% Inac 28.3 degC 10% 47% Inac
71 Delhi 29.7 degC 30% 100% Inac 28.2 degC 57% 100% Actv 27.8 degC 23% 100% Inac
72 Manila 30.3 degC 23% 47% Inac 30.5 degC 0% 53% Inac 30.6 degC 0% 43% Inac
73 Seoul 11.8 degC 40% 100% Inac 11.2 degC 10% 97% Inac 8.8 degC 3% 100% Inac
74 Mumbai 12.1 degC 13% 100% Inac 9.3 degC 13% 100% Inac 7.2 degC 7% 100% Inac
75 Shanghai 18.8 degC 13% 87% Inac 18.2 degC 3% 90% Inac 16.9 degC 3% 90% Inac
76 Guangzhou 28.2 degC 13% 97% Inac 26.2 degC 13% 87% Inac 26.5 degC 0% 93% Inac
77 Beijing 12.1 degC 13% 100% Inac 9.3 degC 13% 100% Inac 7.2 degC 7% 100% Inac
78 Kolkata 31.1 degC 13% 97% Inac 30.4 degC 37% 100% Inac 30.0 degC 47% 100% Inac
79 Bangkok 32.7 degC 10% 50% Inac 32.6 degC 7% 80% Inac 32.4 degC 7% 93% Inac
80 Dhaka 30.4 degC 17% 97% Inac 29.7 degC 37% 100% Inac 29.3 degC 43% 100% Inac
81 Karachi 32.3 degC 30% 100% Inac 31.1 degC 37% 100% Inac 30.9 degC 17% 100% Inac
82 Mexico_City 20.4 degC 43% 100% Inac 21.1 degC 23% 100% Inac 20.7 degC 20% 100% Inac
83 New_York 14.3 degC 0% 77% Inac 12.9 degC 17% 80% Inac 12.3 degC 10% 73% Inac
84 Los_Angeles 26.3 degC 0% 100% Inac 22.6 degC 17% 83% Inac 20.7 degC 27% 93% Inac
85 Chicago 11.3 degC 0% 93% Inac 10.1 degC 17% 77% Inac 10.2 degC 13% 90% Inac
86 Dallas 20.1 degC 0% 77% Inac 18.7 degC 50% 77% Inac 18.7 degC 27% 90% Inac
87 Houston 23.6 degC 7% 87% Inac 22.6 degC 50% 87% Inac 21.8 degC 37% 83% Inac
88 Toronto 9.8 degC 0% 93% Inac 8.8 degC 0% 73% Inac 8.2 degC 13% 90% Inac
89 Washington_DC 15.5 degC 0% 87% Inac 14.6 degC 23% 87% Inac 13.0 degC 17% 87% Inac
90 Philadelphia 15.1 degC 0% 87% Inac 13.5 degC 23% 77% Inac 12.7 degC 10% 87% Inac
91 Miami 26.3 degC 20% 70% Inac 25.4 degC 47% 87% Inac 25.8 degC 17% 87% Inac
92 Leon 26.9 degC 40% 70% Inac 26.8 degC 13% 77% Inac 26.9 degC 10% 83% Inac
93 Santa_Ana 29.8 degC 3% 93% Inac 30.9 degC 0% 90% Inac 30.4 degC 10% 80% Inac
94 San_José 23.2 degC 30% 17% Inac 24.1 degC 10% 47% Inac 23.8 degC 13% 47% Inac
95 Panama_City 30.0 degC 0% 3% Inac 29.7 degC 0% 27% Inac 29.8 degC 0% 40% Inac
96 San_Salvador 30.5 degC 0% 97% Inac 31.0 degC 0% 93% Inac 31.3 degC 0% 97% Inac
97 Guatemala_City 26.8 degC 0% 100% Inac 28.2 degC 0% 93% Inac 28.9 degC 0% 93% Inac
98 Managua 28.8 degC 7% 60% Inac 29.1 degC 0% 70% Inac 29.2 degC 3% 87% Inac
99 Tegucigalpa 25.5 degC 10% 97% Inac 26.1 degC 13% 87% Inac 26.4 degC 10% 93% Inac
100 San-Juan 28.1 degC 7% 77% Inac 27.9 degC 3% 70% Inac 27.8 degC 0% 80% Inac
101 Havana 27.8 degC 33% 87% Inac 27.5 degC 47% 93% Inac 28.5 degC 10% 90% Inac
102 Santiago_de_Cuba 28.3 degC 7% 80% Inac 28.0 degC 0% 93% Inac 27.9 degC 0% 83% Inac
103 Santiago_de_los_Caballeros 27.8 degC 0% 50% Inac 27.8 degC 0% 40% Inac 27.6 degC 0% 60% Inac
104 Port_of_Spain 28.4 degC 3% 40% Inac 28.4 degC 0% 23% Inac 28.2 degC 0% 53% Inac
105 Sao_Paulo 27.9 degC 33% 73% Inac 28.4 degC 20% 43% Inac 28.3 degC 37% 37% Inac
106 Rio_de_Janeiro 28.8 degC 3% 57% Inac 29.9 degC 0% 57% Inac 29.2 degC 7% 70% Inac
107 Brazilia 37.4 degC 30% 63% Inac 35.8 degC 30% 40% Inac 35.6 degC 23% 33% Inac
108 Juazeiro 36.4 degC 3% 87% Inac 35.7 degC 10% 93% Inac 36.1 degC 7% 77% Inac
109 Sidney 29.0 degC 0% 73% Inac 29.8 degC 0% 77% Inac 29.0 degC 0% 77% Inac
110 Melbourne 24.1 degC 0% 87% Inac 22.7 degC 0% 97% Inac 23.5 degC 7% 83% Inac
111 Alice_Springs 35.8 degC 7% 93% Inac 35.8 degC 13% 97% Inac 35.8 degC 30% 97% Inac
112 Darwin 38.3 degC 7% 50% Inac 37.4 degC 13% 50% Inac 36.1 degC 27% 27% Inac
113 Johannesburg 30.2 degC 0% 37% Inac 29.8 degC 13% 53% Inac 30.9 degC 3% 47% Inac
114 Pretoria 32.9 degC 0% 47% Inac 32.0 degC 13% 70% Inac 33.4 degC 3% 47% Inac
115 Durban 25.0 degC 23% 53% Inac 24.6 degC 60% 73% Inac 25.6 degC 13% 53% Inac
116 Belize_City 28.0 degC 3% 33% Inac 27.7 degC 20% 23% Inac 28.0 degC 3% 37% Inac
117 San_Ignacio 27.8 degC 0% 83% Inac 28.0 degC 20% 80% Inac 29.7 degC 3% 90% Inac
118 San_Pedro_Town 27.9 degC 0% 37% Inac 27.6 degC 13% 23% Inac 27.8 degC 3% 57% Inac
119 Kingston 28.8 degC 47% 70% Inac 28.5 degC 37% 80% Inac 28.3 degC 40% 90% Inac
120 Nassau 26.1 degC 50% 50% Inac 25.9 degC 37% 87% Inac 25.4 degC 40% 80% Inac
121 Lucaya 25.4 degC 27% 73% Inac 24.9 degC 40% 87% Inac 24.9 degC 17% 73% Inac
122 Cockburn_Town   27.7 degC 30% 80% Inac 27.4 degC 13% 80% Inac 27.2 degC 3% 70% Inac
123 Port-au-Prince 28.3 degC 7% 83% Inac 28.2 degC 0% 97% Inac 27.7 degC 10% 93% Inac
124 Port-de-Paix 27.8 degC 37% 80% Inac 27.8 degC 7% 80% Inac 27.4 degC 3% 93% Inac
125 Santo_Domingo 28.6 degC 80% 83% Actv 28.3 degC 77% 93% Actv 28.2 degC 70% 87% Actv
126 Santiago_de_los_Caballeros 29.3 degC 83% 83% Actv 29.6 degC 40% 80% Inac 28.9 degC 53% 93% Actv
127 The_Valley 28.0 degC 0% 87% Inac 27.7 degC 10% 77% Inac 27.7 degC 0% 87% Inac
128 Cul_de_Sac 28.0 degC 0% 87% Inac 27.7 degC 10% 77% Inac 27.7 degC 0% 87% Inac
129 Basseterre 28.1 degC 0% 73% Inac 27.8 degC 7% 83% Inac 27.6 degC 7% 93% Inac
130 Fig_Tree 28.2 degC 0% 77% Inac 27.8 degC 7% 83% Inac 27.8 degC 0% 87% Inac
131 Les_Abymes 28.1 degC 0% 57% Inac 27.8 degC 3% 73% Inac 27.7 degC 0% 87% Inac
132 Le_Gosier 28.2 degC 0% 53% Inac 28.0 degC 0% 77% Inac 27.8 degC 0% 87% Inac
133 Roseau 28.2 degC 0% 70% Inac 28.1 degC 0% 93% Inac 27.9 degC 0% 97% Inac
134 Fort-de-France 28.8 degC 0% 63% Inac 28.6 degC 0% 67% Inac 28.4 degC 0% 93% Inac
135 Castries 29.6 degC 0% 63% Inac 28.9 degC 0% 67% Inac 28.8 degC 0% 87% Inac
136 Vieux_Fort 28.3 degC 0% 73% Inac 28.3 degC 0% 57% Inac 28.2 degC 0% 93% Inac
137 Kingstown 28.3 degC 0% 70% Inac 28.4 degC 0% 60% Inac 28.3 degC 0% 87% Inac
138 Georgetown 28.3 degC 0% 73% Inac 28.3 degC 0% 57% Inac 28.2 degC 0% 93% Inac
139 Bridgetown 28.3 degC 0% 70% Inac 28.2 degC 0% 57% Inac 28.2 degC 0% 77% Inac
140 Speightstown 28.3 degC 0% 73% Inac 28.2 degC 0% 60% Inac 28.1 degC 0% 87% Inac
141 Saint_George 28.5 degC 0% 83% Inac 28.4 degC 0% 70% Inac 28.3 degC 0% 83% Inac
142 Chaguanas 30.5 degC 0% 67% Inac 30.1 degC 0% 53% Inac 30.1 degC 0% 57% Inac
143 Georgetown 28.7 degC 0% 10% Inac 28.4 degC 0% 7% Inac 28.4 degC 0% 3% Inac
144 Linden 33.3 degC 10% 13% Inac 32.6 degC 7% 17% Inac 32.6 degC 0% 10% Inac
145 New_Amsterdam 33.6 degC 3% 23% Inac 32.8 degC 3% 27% Inac 32.9 degC 0% 17% Inac
146 Paramaribo 30.1 degC 3% 37% Inac 30.1 degC 0% 27% Inac 29.9 degC 0% 23% Inac
147 Lelydorp 36.7 degC 0% 43% Inac 36.4 degC 0% 33% Inac 35.8 degC 0% 20% Inac
148 Brokopondo 34.7 degC 0% 53% Inac 34.4 degC 0% 47% Inac 34.1 degC 0% 40% Inac
149 Oranjestad 28.7 degC 3% 57% Inac 28.6 degC 0% 57% Inac 28.4 degC 0% 67% Inac
150 Willemstad 28.7 degC 3% 43% Inac 28.6 degC 0% 33% Inac 28.5 degC 0% 57% Inac
151 Barber 28.7 degC 3% 47% Inac 28.7 degC 0% 50% Inac 28.5 degC 0% 63% Inac
152 Kralendijk 28.7 degC 3% 50% Inac 28.6 degC 0% 40% Inac 28.5 degC 0% 57% Inac



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Last Update: Mon Nov 7 19:13:00 UTC 2022


Questions or comments about the Urban Heat Island outlooks may be directed to Dr. Wassila Thiaw, Head, International Desks/NOAA, wassila.thiaw@noaa.gov with copy to endalkachew.bekele@noaa.gov and li.xu@noaa,gov.