Urban Heat Island Forecasts

NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System

Initial: 20221106Z00

International Desks

Climate Prediction Center

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

		Week 2: 13Nov2022 - 19Nov2022				Week 3: 20Nov2022 - 26Nov2022				Week 4: 27Nov2022 - 03Dec2022
NO	Stations	80th Pctl Clim	Higher Tmax Prob.	Dry or Little Rain Prob.	Heat Alert	80th Pctl Clim	Higher Tmax Prob.	Dry or Little Rain Prob.	Heat Alert	80th Pctl Clim	Higher Tmax Prob.	Dry or Little Rain Prob.	Heat Alert
1	Tahoua	36.1 degC	7%	100%	Inac	35.5 degC	17%	100%	Inac	35.2 degC	17%	100%	Inac
2	Niamey	37.5 degC	3%	100%	Inac	36.8 degC	23%	100%	Inac	37.0 degC	17%	100%	Inac
3	Ouagadougou	37.9 degC	0%	100%	Inac	37.7 degC	7%	100%	Inac	37.8 degC	3%	100%	Inac
4	Mopti	36.1 degC	3%	100%	Inac	35.6 degC	33%	100%	Inac	35.6 degC	20%	100%	Inac
5	Bamako	36.2 degC	3%	100%	Inac	36.3 degC	20%	100%	Inac	36.2 degC	23%	100%	Inac
6	Kayes	38.3 degC	10%	100%	Inac	38.3 degC	17%	100%	Inac	38.2 degC	13%	100%	Inac
7	Tamba	39.5 degC	3%	100%	Inac	39.3 degC	7%	100%	Inac	39.2 degC	13%	100%	Inac
8	Kedougou	38.7 degC	0%	100%	Inac	39.1 degC	0%	97%	Inac	38.9 degC	3%	100%	Inac
9	Saraya	40.4 degC	0%	100%	Inac	40.7 degC	3%	97%	Inac	40.6 degC	0%	100%	Inac
10	Dalafi	40.2 degC	0%	100%	Inac	40.2 degC	0%	100%	Inac	39.8 degC	13%	100%	Inac
11	Goudiri	38.7 degC	0%	100%	Inac	38.7 degC	3%	100%	Inac	38.8 degC	13%	100%	Inac
12	Naye	38.6 degC	0%	100%	Inac	38.6 degC	10%	100%	Inac	38.6 degC	13%	100%	Inac
13	Bakel	38.0 degC	7%	100%	Inac	37.9 degC	10%	100%	Inac	37.9 degC	13%	100%	Inac
14	Koupentoum	38.5 degC	0%	100%	Inac	38.7 degC	0%	100%	Inac	38.6 degC	10%	100%	Inac
15	Mamari	38.2 degC	3%	100%	Inac	38.1 degC	0%	100%	Inac	38.2 degC	13%	100%	Inac
16	Velingara	40.1 degC	0%	100%	Inac	39.9 degC	0%	100%	Inac	39.9 degC	7%	100%	Inac
17	Matam	37.8 degC	10%	100%	Inac	37.6 degC	17%	100%	Inac	37.8 degC	13%	100%	Inac
18	Haire_Lao	36.9 degC	3%	100%	Inac	36.4 degC	17%	100%	Inac	37.0 degC	13%	100%	Inac
19	Podor	36.7 degC	3%	100%	Inac	36.2 degC	13%	100%	Inac	36.7 degC	13%	100%	Inac
20	Richard_Toll	36.7 degC	7%	100%	Inac	36.3 degC	13%	100%	Inac	36.6 degC	13%	100%	Inac
21	Linguere	37.4 degC	3%	100%	Inac	37.1 degC	7%	100%	Inac	37.5 degC	13%	100%	Inac
22	Daraa	37.3 degC	3%	100%	Inac	37.1 degC	3%	100%	Inac	37.4 degC	13%	100%	Inac
23	Louga	37.1 degC	0%	100%	Inac	37.0 degC	0%	100%	Inac	37.2 degC	10%	100%	Inac
24	Touba	37.4 degC	0%	100%	Inac	37.3 degC	0%	100%	Inac	37.5 degC	10%	100%	Inac
25	Diourbel	37.8 degC	0%	100%	Inac	37.7 degC	0%	100%	Inac	38.0 degC	3%	100%	Inac
26	Bambey	37.6 degC	0%	100%	Inac	37.5 degC	0%	100%	Inac	37.8 degC	3%	100%	Inac
27	Koungheul	38.3 degC	0%	100%	Inac	38.5 degC	0%	100%	Inac	38.6 degC	7%	100%	Inac
28	Kaffrine	37.7 degC	0%	100%	Inac	38.1 degC	0%	100%	Inac	38.0 degC	10%	100%	Inac
29	Kaolack	37.6 degC	0%	100%	Inac	37.8 degC	0%	100%	Inac	37.9 degC	7%	100%	Inac
30	Fatick	37.6 degC	0%	100%	Inac	37.5 degC	0%	100%	Inac	37.8 degC	3%	100%	Inac
31	Gossas	37.8 degC	0%	100%	Inac	37.7 degC	0%	100%	Inac	38.0 degC	3%	100%	Inac
32	Freetown	32.7 degC	3%	93%	Inac	33.0 degC	7%	97%	Inac	33.6 degC	10%	97%	Inac
33	Cairo	25.9 degC	3%	100%	Inac	25.4 degC	17%	100%	Inac	25.0 degC	7%	100%	Inac
34	Alexandria	25.2 degC	0%	97%	Inac	24.4 degC	13%	100%	Inac	24.2 degC	3%	100%	Inac
35	Giza	25.9 degC	3%	100%	Inac	25.4 degC	17%	100%	Inac	25.0 degC	7%	100%	Inac
36	Luxor	29.7 degC	3%	100%	Inac	28.4 degC	27%	100%	Inac	29.9 degC	7%	100%	Inac
37	Sirte	25.1 degC	17%	100%	Inac	24.8 degC	27%	100%	Inac	23.5 degC	27%	100%	Inac
38	Tripoli	22.8 degC	23%	97%	Inac	22.3 degC	23%	93%	Inac	22.1 degC	10%	83%	Inac
39	Benghazi	22.7 degC	7%	100%	Inac	21.8 degC	23%	100%	Inac	21.5 degC	7%	90%	Inac
40	Mistratah	23.3 degC	30%	100%	Inac	23.2 degC	23%	93%	Inac	22.1 degC	23%	87%	Inac
41	Tunis	22.5 degC	47%	87%	Inac	20.9 degC	47%	93%	Inac	20.4 degC	30%	90%	Inac
42	Sfax	21.8 degC	57%	93%	Inac	21.1 degC	47%	97%	Inac	20.3 degC	30%	93%	Inac
43	Sousse	22.9 degC	30%	100%	Inac	21.7 degC	37%	100%	Inac	21.7 degC	20%	90%	Inac
44	Algiers	19.6 degC	50%	83%	Inac	19.1 degC	27%	70%	Inac	18.1 degC	23%	87%	Inac
45	Oran	21.4 degC	60%	97%	Inac	20.6 degC	37%	93%	Inac	20.1 degC	23%	100%	Inac
46	Constantine	19.0 degC	63%	97%	Inac	18.0 degC	47%	87%	Inac	17.2 degC	33%	90%	Inac
47	Annaba	21.2 degC	50%	90%	Inac	20.2 degC	43%	70%	Inac	19.4 degC	30%	77%	Inac
48	Casablanca	22.3 degC	27%	90%	Inac	20.7 degC	40%	97%	Inac	20.8 degC	23%	100%	Inac
49	Rabat	20.4 degC	27%	83%	Inac	19.6 degC	40%	83%	Inac	19.6 degC	20%	87%	Inac
50	Fes	21.5 degC	43%	83%	Inac	18.3 degC	60%	90%	Inac	18.9 degC	40%	93%	Inac
51	Sale	17.6 degC	43%	93%	Inac	15.3 degC	53%	90%	Inac	15.6 degC	37%	93%	Inac
52	Riyadh	28.2 degC	57%	100%	Actv	26.0 degC	47%	97%	Inac	26.3 degC	43%	93%	Inac
53	Jeddah	29.5 degC	0%	100%	Inac	29.1 degC	0%	93%	Inac	29.1 degC	0%	100%	Inac
54	Mecca	31.8 degC	10%	100%	Inac	30.9 degC	10%	97%	Inac	31.1 degC	3%	100%	Inac
55	Medina	30.1 degC	13%	100%	Inac	28.6 degC	27%	97%	Inac	30.2 degC	3%	100%	Inac
56	Sanaa	21.9 degC	13%	100%	Inac	21.3 degC	13%	97%	Inac	21.6 degC	3%	90%	Inac
57	Al_Hudaydah	31.4 degC	0%	97%	Inac	30.9 degC	0%	100%	Inac	31.0 degC	0%	100%	Inac
58	Aden	31.7 degC	20%	100%	Inac	31.1 degC	13%	100%	Inac	31.1 degC	0%	100%	Inac
59	London	11.9 degC	27%	80%	Inac	10.8 degC	17%	93%	Inac	12.4 degC	7%	90%	Inac
60	Paris	12.2 degC	23%	93%	Inac	11.9 degC	3%	87%	Inac	11.1 degC	13%	90%	Inac
61	Istanbul	16.4 degC	0%	87%	Inac	15.8 degC	13%	97%	Inac	14.8 degC	3%	83%	Inac
62	Moscow	3.7 degC	27%	100%	Inac	1.8 degC	20%	100%	Inac	2.1 degC	17%	100%	Inac
63	Madrid	13.1 degC	50%	90%	Inac	12.4 degC	23%	83%	Inac	11.7 degC	33%	87%	Inac
64	Rome	17.8 degC	40%	83%	Inac	17.3 degC	30%	60%	Inac	15.7 degC	17%	70%	Inac
65	Frankfurt	10.0 degC	40%	97%	Inac	9.4 degC	20%	97%	Inac	9.7 degC	3%	93%	Inac
66	Kyiv	7.5 degC	27%	100%	Inac	6.6 degC	20%	97%	Inac	5.1 degC	20%	97%	Inac
67	Berlin	10.3 degC	20%	93%	Inac	8.6 degC	30%	100%	Inac	8.2 degC	17%	100%	Inac
68	Bucharest	15.6 degC	3%	93%	Inac	12.0 degC	27%	97%	Inac	11.3 degC	7%	100%	Inac
69	Tokyo	17.6 degC	3%	80%	Inac	16.0 degC	7%	77%	Inac	16.3 degC	0%	83%	Inac
70	Jakarta	27.8 degC	23%	57%	Inac	28.1 degC	17%	50%	Inac	28.4 degC	7%	47%	Inac
71	Delhi	29.4 degC	37%	100%	Inac	28.0 degC	63%	100%	Actv	27.6 degC	27%	100%	Inac
72	Manila	30.1 degC	23%	47%	Inac	30.2 degC	7%	53%	Inac	30.0 degC	10%	43%	Inac
73	Seoul	11.3 degC	53%	100%	Inac	10.1 degC	20%	97%	Inac	7.8 degC	10%	100%	Inac
74	Mumbai	11.0 degC	53%	100%	Inac	9.1 degC	17%	100%	Inac	8.0 degC	7%	100%	Inac
75	Shanghai	17.9 degC	27%	87%	Inac	17.7 degC	10%	90%	Inac	17.1 degC	3%	90%	Inac
76	Guangzhou	27.5 degC	23%	97%	Inac	25.8 degC	20%	87%	Inac	26.8 degC	0%	93%	Inac
77	Beijing	11.0 degC	53%	100%	Inac	9.1 degC	17%	100%	Inac	8.0 degC	7%	100%	Inac
78	Kolkata	30.5 degC	23%	97%	Inac	29.8 degC	67%	100%	Actv	30.3 degC	37%	100%	Inac
79	Bangkok	32.1 degC	37%	50%	Inac	31.6 degC	17%	80%	Inac	32.1 degC	10%	93%	Inac
80	Dhaka	30.2 degC	23%	97%	Inac	29.4 degC	47%	100%	Inac	29.5 degC	40%	100%	Inac
81	Karachi	31.9 degC	43%	100%	Inac	30.7 degC	40%	100%	Inac	30.7 degC	20%	100%	Inac
82	Mexico_City	20.3 degC	43%	100%	Inac	20.2 degC	50%	100%	Inac	21.2 degC	3%	100%	Inac
83	New_York	13.4 degC	0%	77%	Inac	12.2 degC	30%	80%	Inac	14.6 degC	3%	73%	Inac
84	Los_Angeles	24.5 degC	0%	100%	Inac	21.5 degC	27%	83%	Inac	20.6 degC	30%	93%	Inac
85	Chicago	10.5 degC	0%	93%	Inac	8.3 degC	30%	77%	Inac	8.8 degC	27%	90%	Inac
86	Dallas	19.5 degC	3%	77%	Inac	18.1 degC	63%	77%	Inac	18.9 degC	27%	90%	Inac
87	Houston	22.7 degC	13%	87%	Inac	22.2 degC	53%	87%	Inac	23.2 degC	23%	83%	Inac
88	Toronto	9.7 degC	0%	93%	Inac	8.2 degC	3%	73%	Inac	10.0 degC	3%	90%	Inac
89	Washington_DC	14.8 degC	0%	87%	Inac	12.7 degC	43%	87%	Inac	15.2 degC	10%	87%	Inac
90	Philadelphia	14.0 degC	0%	87%	Inac	12.7 degC	40%	77%	Inac	16.2 degC	3%	87%	Inac
91	Miami	26.0 degC	40%	70%	Inac	25.3 degC	50%	87%	Inac	25.5 degC	23%	87%	Inac
92	Leon	26.7 degC	43%	70%	Inac	26.5 degC	30%	77%	Inac	26.9 degC	10%	83%	Inac
93	Santa_Ana	29.6 degC	3%	93%	Inac	30.3 degC	3%	90%	Inac	30.7 degC	3%	80%	Inac
94	San_José	22.9 degC	37%	17%	Inac	23.4 degC	30%	47%	Inac	23.3 degC	23%	47%	Inac
95	Panama_City	29.3 degC	0%	3%	Inac	29.3 degC	0%	27%	Inac	29.4 degC	3%	40%	Inac
96	San_Salvador	30.5 degC	0%	97%	Inac	30.7 degC	0%	93%	Inac	31.0 degC	0%	97%	Inac
97	Guatemala_City	26.4 degC	0%	100%	Inac	27.7 degC	3%	93%	Inac	28.6 degC	0%	93%	Inac
98	Managua	28.7 degC	10%	60%	Inac	28.8 degC	0%	70%	Inac	29.0 degC	3%	87%	Inac
99	Tegucigalpa	25.3 degC	13%	97%	Inac	25.9 degC	20%	87%	Inac	26.0 degC	17%	93%	Inac
100	San-Juan	27.8 degC	7%	77%	Inac	27.8 degC	7%	70%	Inac	27.6 degC	7%	80%	Inac
101	Havana	27.5 degC	33%	87%	Inac	27.2 degC	53%	93%	Actv	27.5 degC	47%	90%	Inac
102	Santiago_de_Cuba	28.1 degC	7%	80%	Inac	27.9 degC	0%	93%	Inac	27.8 degC	0%	83%	Inac
103	Santiago_de_los_Caballeros	27.7 degC	3%	50%	Inac	27.6 degC	0%	40%	Inac	27.3 degC	0%	60%	Inac
104	Port_of_Spain	28.3 degC	10%	40%	Inac	28.3 degC	0%	23%	Inac	28.1 degC	0%	53%	Inac
105	Sao_Paulo	27.3 degC	47%	73%	Inac	27.8 degC	27%	43%	Inac	27.1 degC	47%	37%	Inac
106	Rio_de_Janeiro	27.9 degC	7%	57%	Inac	28.6 degC	7%	57%	Inac	29.1 degC	7%	70%	Inac
107	Brazilia	35.9 degC	43%	63%	Inac	34.6 degC	47%	40%	Inac	34.6 degC	30%	33%	Inac
108	Juazeiro	36.0 degC	3%	87%	Inac	34.9 degC	30%	93%	Inac	35.5 degC	10%	77%	Inac
109	Sidney	27.8 degC	0%	73%	Inac	27.4 degC	0%	77%	Inac	29.2 degC	0%	77%	Inac
110	Melbourne	22.5 degC	3%	87%	Inac	22.2 degC	3%	97%	Inac	25.0 degC	0%	83%	Inac
111	Alice_Springs	34.5 degC	7%	93%	Inac	34.8 degC	27%	97%	Inac	36.9 degC	20%	97%	Inac
112	Darwin	37.7 degC	13%	50%	Inac	37.0 degC	27%	50%	Inac	36.3 degC	27%	27%	Inac
113	Johannesburg	29.8 degC	0%	37%	Inac	29.2 degC	23%	53%	Inac	30.4 degC	3%	47%	Inac
114	Pretoria	32.3 degC	0%	47%	Inac	31.5 degC	27%	70%	Inac	32.9 degC	3%	47%	Inac
115	Durban	24.2 degC	73%	53%	Inac	24.4 degC	63%	73%	Inac	25.7 degC	10%	53%	Inac
116	Belize_City	27.4 degC	17%	33%	Inac	27.5 degC	30%	23%	Inac	27.6 degC	7%	37%	Inac
117	San_Ignacio	27.0 degC	7%	83%	Inac	27.1 degC	20%	80%	Inac	28.3 degC	7%	90%	Inac
118	San_Pedro_Town	27.3 degC	13%	37%	Inac	27.4 degC	27%	23%	Inac	27.6 degC	3%	57%	Inac
119	Kingston	28.4 degC	70%	70%	Actv	28.3 degC	50%	80%	Inac	27.9 degC	57%	90%	Actv
120	Nassau	25.9 degC	53%	50%	Inac	25.6 degC	50%	87%	Inac	25.0 degC	50%	80%	Inac
121	Lucaya	25.3 degC	30%	73%	Inac	24.8 degC	40%	87%	Inac	24.7 degC	27%	73%	Inac
122	Cockburn_Town	27.5 degC	47%	80%	Inac	27.2 degC	23%	80%	Inac	26.9 degC	30%	70%	Inac
123	Port-au-Prince	27.9 degC	20%	83%	Inac	27.7 degC	10%	97%	Inac	27.5 degC	13%	93%	Inac
124	Port-de-Paix	27.6 degC	67%	80%	Actv	27.4 degC	33%	80%	Inac	27.0 degC	30%	93%	Inac
125	Santo_Domingo	28.4 degC	80%	83%	Actv	27.9 degC	90%	93%	Actv	28.0 degC	73%	87%	Actv
126	Santiago_de_los_Caballeros	28.9 degC	90%	83%	Actv	28.9 degC	53%	80%	Actv	28.9 degC	53%	93%	Actv
127	The_Valley	27.8 degC	10%	87%	Inac	27.6 degC	20%	77%	Inac	27.3 degC	20%	87%	Inac
128	Cul_de_Sac	27.8 degC	10%	87%	Inac	27.6 degC	20%	77%	Inac	27.3 degC	20%	87%	Inac
129	Basseterre	27.9 degC	7%	73%	Inac	27.6 degC	17%	83%	Inac	27.3 degC	20%	93%	Inac
130	Fig_Tree	27.9 degC	3%	77%	Inac	27.8 degC	10%	83%	Inac	27.5 degC	10%	87%	Inac
131	Les_Abymes	28.0 degC	0%	57%	Inac	27.7 degC	10%	73%	Inac	27.6 degC	7%	87%	Inac
132	Le_Gosier	28.0 degC	3%	53%	Inac	27.9 degC	3%	77%	Inac	27.7 degC	0%	87%	Inac
133	Roseau	28.0 degC	0%	70%	Inac	27.8 degC	0%	93%	Inac	27.6 degC	0%	97%	Inac
134	Fort-de-France	28.5 degC	0%	63%	Inac	28.4 degC	0%	67%	Inac	28.2 degC	0%	93%	Inac
135	Castries	29.1 degC	0%	63%	Inac	28.8 degC	0%	67%	Inac	28.5 degC	0%	87%	Inac
136	Vieux_Fort	28.2 degC	0%	73%	Inac	28.1 degC	0%	57%	Inac	28.0 degC	0%	93%	Inac
137	Kingstown	28.2 degC	0%	70%	Inac	28.2 degC	0%	60%	Inac	28.1 degC	0%	87%	Inac
138	Georgetown	28.2 degC	0%	73%	Inac	28.1 degC	0%	57%	Inac	28.0 degC	0%	93%	Inac
139	Bridgetown	28.2 degC	3%	70%	Inac	28.1 degC	0%	57%	Inac	28.1 degC	0%	77%	Inac
140	Speightstown	28.1 degC	3%	73%	Inac	27.9 degC	0%	60%	Inac	28.0 degC	0%	87%	Inac
141	Saint_George	28.4 degC	0%	83%	Inac	28.3 degC	0%	70%	Inac	28.1 degC	0%	83%	Inac
142	Chaguanas	30.2 degC	0%	67%	Inac	30.0 degC	0%	53%	Inac	30.0 degC	0%	57%	Inac
143	Georgetown	28.7 degC	0%	10%	Inac	28.4 degC	0%	7%	Inac	28.4 degC	0%	3%	Inac
144	Linden	32.6 degC	17%	13%	Inac	32.3 degC	13%	17%	Inac	32.4 degC	0%	10%	Inac
145	New_Amsterdam	33.0 degC	10%	23%	Inac	32.4 degC	10%	27%	Inac	32.8 degC	0%	17%	Inac
146	Paramaribo	30.0 degC	13%	37%	Inac	29.9 degC	0%	27%	Inac	30.1 degC	0%	23%	Inac
147	Lelydorp	35.8 degC	0%	43%	Inac	35.6 degC	0%	33%	Inac	35.9 degC	0%	20%	Inac
148	Brokopondo	34.1 degC	0%	53%	Inac	34.0 degC	0%	47%	Inac	34.2 degC	0%	40%	Inac
149	Oranjestad	28.4 degC	13%	57%	Inac	28.4 degC	0%	57%	Inac	28.2 degC	0%	67%	Inac
150	Willemstad	28.5 degC	7%	43%	Inac	28.4 degC	0%	33%	Inac	28.2 degC	0%	57%	Inac
151	Barber	28.5 degC	3%	47%	Inac	28.4 degC	0%	50%	Inac	28.2 degC	0%	63%	Inac
152	Kralendijk	28.5 degC	3%	50%	Inac	28.5 degC	0%	40%	Inac	28.2 degC	0%	57%	Inac

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Last Update: Mon Nov 7 19:12:59 UTC 2022

Questions or comments about the Urban Heat Island outlooks may be directed to Dr. Wassila Thiaw, Head, International Desks/NOAA, wassila.thiaw@noaa.gov with copy to endalkachew.bekele@noaa.gov and li.xu@noaa,gov.