WEEKLY WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT July 21, 2004  DISCUSSION: 
1.  Poor performance of the wet season rains over the past several years has resulted in a long term, multi-yeardrought
across the Sool Plateau and the nearby Togdheer Region in northern Somalia. The 2004 season, however,saw an overall good
performance of the rains. Furthermore, unseasonable showers last week helped to increase moisture in southern areas.
Despite these rains, large long term moisture deficits and drought remain.  The next
chance for significant rainfall will come in October. 

2. The long rains this year were much below normal across eastern Kenya, the Somali region of Ethiopia and across the
Galguduud and Mudug regions of  Somalia.  The season started late and ended early, as little rain fell during March or
May. Totals were less than half of normal for the season, with deficits of 100 to 150 mm. Some areas in the higher
elevations have deficits of 250+ mm. This may result in degradation of pastures and reduction in water
availability to people and livestock as the dry season progresses. The next chance for significant rain will be with the
onset of the short rains in October.
 
3. The 2004 Belg season (February-May) was drier than normal across the South Tigray zone as well as North Wello and South
Wello zones in the Ahmara region. Rainfall was about half of normal for the season.  The season also started late and
ended early, with most of the season's rainfall occurring during the month of April. The typical length of the Belg rains
is about 10 weeks. The 2004 Belg season lasted only 4 to 5 weeks.  The shorter and drier than normal season undermined
agricultural activities in the area and resulted in crop yield reductions and even crop failures. The dryness may also
hamper land preparation efforts for Meher crops. Showers are expected during the period, favoring Meher crops. Rainfall
amounts of 15 to locally 60 mm are expected across the area.

4. Multi-year drought has resulted in long term moisture deficits across southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania.
Poor performance of the March-May rains has exacerbated long term drought conditions across the area. The long term
drought will reduce water supplies and reservoir levels, degrade pastures and may result in reduced sub-soil moisture
availability for the upcoming second cropping season. 

5. Little if any rain has fallen during June or so far in July across southwestern Ethiopia, southeastern Sudan and far
northwestern Kenya. This has resulted in short term dryness and deficits ranging from 50 to 120 mm , as well as stress to
local crops. Across the southern portions of the Ethiopian highlands, including the Ahmar Mountains,rainfall during June
and early July has been erratic and lighter than normal. June rainfall has been 35 to 60 percent of normal, with short
falls of 25 to 105 mm. According to the June 2004 Agro-Met Bulletin (Vol. 14,  No. 18) from Ethiopia's National
Meteorological Services Agency, this has caused "moderate to bad general field conditions" and has favored the outbreak of
pests in some areas. Showers are expected across the Ahmar Mountains and the northern most portions of the highlighted
area. However, the southern areas will remain dry.

6. Rainfall has been spotty and light since about June 20th across far eastern Uganda and far western portions of Kenya,
including some major crop areas of the southwest near Lake Victoria. This has resulted in a 4 week long dry spell, which
may cause stress to reproductive main season grains. Fortunately, temperatures have been near normal. Therefore, heat
stress is not as much of a concern.  Showers are expected during the period, which would ease stress on main season
grains. 

7. Rainfall during the past two months has been about 30 to 60 percent of normal across the western winter grain areas of
Western Cape in South Africa. This has reduced moisture for winter grains and resulted in moisture deficits of 50 to 100+
mm. A frontal system will bring some beneficial showers to mainly the southern parts of the area during the period. 

AUTHOR: Chester V. Schmitt